Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,330
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Serie B
Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Cesena 3 – 4 Calcio Padova
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Blackburn Rovers 0 – 1 Leicester City
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Sheffield Wednesday 2 – 1 West Bromwich Albion
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Serie A
Mon, 27 Apr 4:30 PM
Cagliari 3 – 2 Atalanta
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Superliga
Sun, 26 Apr 4:00 PM
Viborg FF 1 – 0 Nordsjælland
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 25 Apr 11:30 AM
Fulham 1 – 0 Aston Villa
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Fri, 24 Apr 4:00 PM
Zagłębie Lubin 1 – 2 Nieciecza
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
1. HNL
Tue, 21 Apr 4:45 PM
Hajduk Split 0 – 1 Osijek
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sat, 25 Apr 11:30 AM
Eyüpspor 3 – 0 Gaziantep F.K.
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 94.9% on the actual outcome vs market 94.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.3% 94.9% +0.6%
Draw 4.5% 4.5% -0.1%
Away 1.2% 0.6% -0.6%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Europa League
Thu, 30 Jul 5:00 PM
Pafos FC 4 – 0 Hajduk Split
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.9% on the actual outcome vs market 94.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.3% 94.9% +0.6%
Draw 5.1% 4.7% -0.3%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 18 Apr 2:00 PM
Antwerp 2 – 0 OH Leuven
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.2% on the actual outcome vs market 94.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.6% 95.2% +0.6%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 0.3% 0.2% -0.2%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 19 Apr 4:30 PM
Albacete 4 – 1 Granada
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Draw 4.2% 4.1% 0.0%
Away 1.2% 0.6% -0.6%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 16 Apr 7:00 PM
Strasbourg 4 – 0 FSV Mainz 05
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Draw 4.2% 4.1% 0.0%
Away 1.2% 0.6% -0.6%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Allsvenskan
Sun, 31 May 12:00 PM
Västerås SK 4 – 5 IFK Göteborg
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Mon, 25 May 3:00 PM
Sarpsborg 08 2 – 1 Molde
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Serie A
Sun, 24 May 6:45 PM
AC Milan 1 – 2 Cagliari
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Fri, 15 May 7:00 PM
Córdoba 1 – 2 Albacete
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
La Liga
Wed, 13 May 7:30 PM
Deportivo Alavés 1 – 0 FC Barcelona
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Beşiktaş 1 – 2 Trabzonspor
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Fri, 8 May 5:00 PM
HamKam 1 – 0 Vålerenga
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Pro League
Fri, 1 May 6:45 PM
Cercle Brugge 2 – 3 Zulte-Waregem
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 26 Apr 4:30 PM
Huesca 1 – 0 Real Zaragoza
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Super League
Sun, 26 Apr 2:30 PM
Young Boys 1 – 2 St. Gallen
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 26 Apr 1:00 PM
Lorient 2 – 3 Strasbourg
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 94.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.1% 4.6% -0.5%
Away 94.7% 95.3% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome