AC Milan vs Cagliari preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 24 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
AC Milan MIL
Cagliari CAG
KICKOFF : Sun, 24 May - 6:45 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

AC Milan welcome Cagliari to the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza for a Serie A regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting third in the domestic standings, the Rossoneri possess a commanding power rating of 83.98 that delivers a 13-point advantage over their opponents. Cagliari currently occupy sixteenth place and arrive with a stronger recent form score. The home side will aim to use their superior structural setup and squad resources to control proceedings from the outset. Cagliari, despite the difficult away assignment, carry momentum that could allow them to threaten on the counter. Both teams operate in a league known for its tactical discipline, making midfield battles and defensive organization key factors. The fixture offers a clear test of quality versus current rhythm at a historic venue.

TL;DR

  • Structural: AC Milan sit third in the Serie A table while Cagliari occupy sixteenth place.
  • Form: Cagliari enter with a superior form score of 23.22 compared to AC Milan's 12.72.
  • Squad: AC Milan hold a significant power advantage of 13 points over Cagliari.
  • Efficiency: Both teams show limited efficiency data available for this fixture.
  • Transition: The match features contrasting styles in midfield transitions.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data remains unavailable with low confidence metrics for both sides.
  • xVariable: AC Milan are the stronger team with a power score of 83.98 against Cagliari's 71.02.
  • Market: AC Milan 73.3% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 18% (Δ+-0%) | Cagliari 8.8% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
VS
Cagliari F. Pisacane
F. Pisacane
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa Rank: 75 W
Atalanta Rank: 84 L
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Udinese Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: 75 W
Udinese Rank: 77 L
Bologna Rank: 78 D
Atalanta Rank: 84 W
Inter Rank: 92 L
Cremonese Rank: 69 W
29
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
29 - 8 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AC Milan
73.27%
Draw
17.97%
Away Cagliari
8.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
AC Milan
-0.08%
Draw
-0.02%
Cagliari
+0.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.98
71.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AC Milan
Cagliari
Power Score
83.98
71.02
League Position
3
16
Global Rank
40
184

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Cagliari — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AC Milan Cagliari

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AC Milan MIL Home
38 matches
Cagliari CAG Away
Match Record
29
Wins
1
8
Draws
8
1
Losses
29
Goals
82
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
82
+53
Goal Difference
-53
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:11:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
M. Maignan
France
16 M. Maignan
F. Tomori
England
23 F. Tomori
M. Gabbia
Italy
46 M. Gabbia
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
Z. Athekame
Switzerland
24 Z. Athekame
Y. Fofana
France
19 Y. Fofana
A. Jasari
Switzerland
30 A. Jasari
A. Rabiot
France
12 A. Rabiot
D. Bartesaghi
Italy
33 D. Bartesaghi
C. Nkunku
France
18 C. Nkunku
S. Giménez
Mexico
7 S. Giménez
E. Caprile
Italy
1 E. Caprile
A. Obert
Slovakia
33 A. Obert
A. Dossena
Italy
22 A. Dossena
Y. Mina González
Colombia
26 Y. Mina González
G. Zappa
Italy
28 G. Zappa
A. Deiola
Italy
14 A. Deiola
G. Gaetano
Italy
10 G. Gaetano
M. Adopo
France
8 M. Adopo
S. Esposito
Italy
94 S. Esposito
M. Palestra
Italy
2 M. Palestra
P. Mendy
Senegal
31 P. Mendy

General Information

Date & Time
May 24, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity
75817
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Guida
Fabiano Preti
Giovanni Ayroldi
Filippo Bercigli

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.04
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Defender
6.88
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame Defender
6.63
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
6.98
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Defender
6.92
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Defender
6.85
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
7.26
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
6.8
30
Ardon Jashari
Ardon Jashari Midfielder
6.8
7
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez Attacker
6.56
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku Attacker
6.8
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

1
Elia Caprile
Elia Caprile Goalkeeper
6.92
22
Alberto Dossena
Alberto Dossena Defender
6.89
26
Yerry Mina
Yerry Mina Defender
6.91
28
Gabriele Zappa
Gabriele Zappa Defender
6.59
33
Adam Obert
Adam Obert Defender
6.82
2
Marco Palestra
Marco Palestra Midfielder
6.92
8
Michel Adopo
Michel Adopo Midfielder
6.69
10
Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano Midfielder
6.82
14
Alessandro Deiola
Alessandro Deiola Midfielder
6.69
31
Paul Mendy
Paul Mendy Attacker
6.81
94
Sebastiano Esposito
Sebastiano Esposito Attacker
7.17

CONCLUSION

AC Milan are expected to dictate the tempo at home thanks to their higher league position and overall power edge. Their ability to manage games through structured play should create openings against a Cagliari side that has shown better recent form. The visitors will need to stay compact and look for quick transitions if they are to trouble the hosts. Set-piece situations remain an area where both teams lack clear data, shifting focus to open-play execution. AC Milan’s squad depth gives them the tools to sustain pressure across ninety minutes. Cagliari must remain disciplined to avoid being pulled apart by the home team’s movement. Overall the contest should reward the side that better blends organization with timely forward surges.