Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,324
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Championship
Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Ipswich Town 3 – 0 Queens Park Rangers
Our prediction 99.0%
Market prediction 95.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.8% (assigned 88.5% on the actual outcome vs market 75.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 75.0% 88.5% +13.5%
Draw 15.3% 7.0% -8.3%
Away 9.7% 4.5% -5.2%
Model leans Home by 13.5% Max |Δ|: 13.5% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sat, 25 Apr 5:00 PM
Angers SCO 0 – 3 Paris Saint Germain
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.6% (assigned 88.9% on the actual outcome vs market 75.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 8.9% 4.0% -4.8%
Draw 15.5% 7.1% -8.4%
Away 75.6% 88.9% +13.3%
Model leans Away by 13.3% Max |Δ|: 13.3% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Fri, 15 May 6:30 PM
Castellón 1 – 1 Cádiz
Our prediction 17.0%
Market prediction 34.9%

Market was closer to the result by 17.9% (market 15.0% on actual outcome vs our 6.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 75.6% 88.9% +13.3%
Draw 15.0% 6.8% -8.2%
Away 9.3% 4.2% -5.1%
Model leans Home by 13.3% Max |Δ|: 13.3% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Fri, 10 Apr 7:05 PM
Olympique Marseille 3 – 1 Metz
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.6% (assigned 89.0% on the actual outcome vs market 75.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 75.8% 89.0% +13.2%
Draw 15.3% 7.0% -8.4%
Away 8.9% 4.0% -4.8%
Model leans Home by 13.2% Max |Δ|: 13.2% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM
Sheffield Wednesday 0 – 2 Ipswich Town
Our prediction 99.0%
Market prediction 95.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.7% (assigned 89.0% on the actual outcome vs market 75.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 7.3% 3.3% -4.0%
Draw 16.9% 7.7% -9.2%
Away 75.8% 89.0% +13.2%
Model leans Away by 13.2% Max |Δ|: 13.2% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 12 Apr 5:00 PM
Galatasaray 1 – 1 Kocaelispor
Our prediction 17.5%
Market prediction 36.0%

Market was closer to the result by 18.5% (market 16.4% on actual outcome vs our 7.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 75.8% 89.0% +13.2%
Draw 16.4% 7.4% -8.9%
Away 7.8% 3.6% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 13.2% Max |Δ|: 13.2% Open Preview
La Liga
Wed, 22 Apr 7:30 PM
FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Celta de Vigo
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 89.1% on the actual outcome vs market 75.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 75.9% 89.1% +13.2%
Draw 14.7% 6.7% -8.0%
Away 9.4% 4.3% -5.2%
Model leans Home by 13.2% Max |Δ|: 13.2% Open Preview
1. HNL
Sat, 4 Apr 1:00 PM
Dinamo Zagreb 7 – 0 Osijek
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.6% (assigned 89.1% on the actual outcome vs market 76.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 76.0% 89.1% +13.1%
Draw 16.1% 7.3% -8.8%
Away 7.9% 3.6% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 13.1% Max |Δ|: 13.1% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sat, 11 Apr 7:30 PM
Estrela Amadora 0 – 1 Sporting CP
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 89.2% on the actual outcome vs market 76.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 8.0% 3.6% -4.4%
Draw 15.9% 7.2% -8.7%
Away 76.1% 89.2% +13.1%
Model leans Away by 13.1% Max |Δ|: 13.1% Open Preview
Serie B
Tue, 17 Mar 7:00 PM
Venezia 3 – 1 Calcio Padova
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 89.2% on the actual outcome vs market 76.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 76.1% 89.2% +13.1%
Draw 14.8% 6.7% -8.1%
Away 9.2% 4.2% -5.0%
Model leans Home by 13.1% Max |Δ|: 13.1% Open Preview
Superliga
Mon, 27 Apr 5:00 PM
FC København 3 – 0 Vejle Boldklub
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 89.3% on the actual outcome vs market 76.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 76.2% 89.3% +13.0%
Draw 15.2% 6.9% -8.4%
Away 8.5% 3.8% -4.7%
Model leans Home by 13.0% Max |Δ|: 13.0% Open Preview
Premiership
Sat, 21 Mar 5:45 PM
Rangers 4 – 1 Aberdeen
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 89.3% on the actual outcome vs market 76.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 76.3% 89.3% +13.0%
Draw 16.0% 7.2% -8.8%
Away 7.8% 3.5% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 13.0% Max |Δ|: 13.0% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sat, 16 May 7:30 PM
Estoril 1 – 3 Benfica
Our prediction 99.1%
Market prediction 95.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.4% (assigned 89.4% on the actual outcome vs market 76.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 8.1% 3.6% -4.4%
Draw 15.4% 6.9% -8.5%
Away 76.5% 89.4% +12.9%
Model leans Away by 12.9% Max |Δ|: 12.9% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Fri, 6 Mar 7:30 PM
FC Bayern München 4 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Our prediction 99.2%
Market prediction 96.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 89.8% on the actual outcome vs market 77.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.0% 89.8% +12.7%
Draw 12.8% 5.7% -7.1%
Away 10.2% 4.6% -5.7%
Model leans Home by 12.7% Max |Δ|: 12.7% Open Preview
World Cup
Fri, 26 Jun 7:00 PM
Senegal 5 – 0 Iraq
Our prediction 99.2%
Market prediction 96.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 89.8% on the actual outcome vs market 77.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.1% 89.8% +12.7%
Draw 14.5% 6.5% -8.1%
Away 8.4% 3.7% -4.6%
Model leans Home by 12.7% Max |Δ|: 12.7% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Mon, 6 Apr 3:00 PM
Kristiansund 0 – 3 Bodø / Glimt
Our prediction 99.2%
Market prediction 96.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 89.9% on the actual outcome vs market 77.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 8.9% 3.9% -4.9%
Draw 13.9% 6.2% -7.7%
Away 77.3% 89.9% +12.7%
Model leans Away by 12.7% Max |Δ|: 12.7% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Fri, 20 Mar 7:45 PM
Lens 5 – 1 Angers SCO
Our prediction 99.2%
Market prediction 96.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.1% (assigned 90.1% on the actual outcome vs market 77.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.6% 90.1% +12.5%
Draw 14.7% 6.5% -8.2%
Away 7.8% 3.4% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 12.5% Max |Δ|: 12.5% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sat, 16 May 7:30 PM
Sporting CP 3 – 0 Gil Vicente
Our prediction 99.3%
Market prediction 96.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.0% (assigned 90.1% on the actual outcome vs market 77.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.6% 90.1% +12.5%
Draw 12.4% 5.5% -7.0%
Away 9.9% 4.4% -5.6%
Model leans Home by 12.5% Max |Δ|: 12.5% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sun, 15 Mar 8:30 PM
Porto 3 – 0 Moreirense
Our prediction 99.2%
Market prediction 96.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 90.1% on the actual outcome vs market 77.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.7% 90.1% +12.5%
Draw 16.0% 7.1% -8.9%
Away 6.4% 2.8% -3.6%
Model leans Home by 12.5% Max |Δ|: 12.5% Open Preview
Premier League
Sun, 26 Apr 3:00 PM
Kudrivka 1 – 3 Shakhtar Donetsk
Our prediction 99.3%
Market prediction 96.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.1% (assigned 90.6% on the actual outcome vs market 78.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 5.9% 2.5% -3.4%
Draw 16.0% 6.9% -9.1%
Away 78.1% 90.6% +12.5%
Model leans Away by 12.5% Max |Δ|: 12.5% Open Preview
Allsvenskan
Wed, 22 Apr 5:00 PM
Hammarby 1 – 1 Halmstad
Our prediction 15.7%
Market prediction 33.4%

Market was closer to the result by 17.7% (market 15.0% on actual outcome vs our 6.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.7% 90.2% +12.5%
Draw 15.0% 6.6% -8.4%
Away 7.4% 3.2% -4.1%
Model leans Home by 12.5% Max |Δ|: 12.5% Open Preview
La Liga
Sun, 22 Mar 1:00 PM
FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Rayo Vallecano
Our prediction 99.3%
Market prediction 96.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.0% (assigned 90.2% on the actual outcome vs market 77.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.7% 90.2% +12.5%
Draw 12.8% 5.7% -7.2%
Away 9.5% 4.2% -5.3%
Model leans Home by 12.5% Max |Δ|: 12.5% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Fri, 1 May 4:30 PM
Deportivo La Coruña 2 – 1 Leganés
Our prediction 18.3%
Market prediction 39.0%

Market was closer to the result by 20.7% (market 21.5% on actual outcome vs our 9.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 21.5% 9.4% -12.1%
Draw 77.7% 90.2% +12.5%
Away 0.7% 0.4% -0.4%
Model leans Draw by 12.5% Max |Δ|: 12.5% Open Preview
La Liga
Tue, 21 Apr 7:30 PM
Real Madrid 2 – 1 Deportivo Alavés
Our prediction 99.3%
Market prediction 96.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.0% (assigned 90.2% on the actual outcome vs market 77.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.8% 90.2% +12.4%
Draw 13.4% 5.9% -7.5%
Away 8.8% 3.9% -4.9%
Model leans Home by 12.4% Max |Δ|: 12.4% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome