Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde preview

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sarpsborg Stadion Mon, 25 May - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
2 1
Molde Molde
Full Time Mon, 25 May 3:00 PM
Round 10 Regular Season
Daniel Karlsbakk - 5' (P)
Anders Hiim - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Eirik Hestad - 45'

CONTEXT

In a surprising turn of events at the stadium, Sarpsborg 08 defeated Molde by a score of 2-1. The halftime score stood at 1-1, reflecting an even contest up to that point. Molde controlled the majority of the ball with 76 percent possession, leaving Sarpsborg 08 with just 24 percent. Nevertheless, the home team capitalized on their opportunities to claim the three points. As the designated stronger side, Molde was unable to convert their dominance into a positive result. The absence of any dismissals meant both teams played with full squads for the entire match. Adjustments in the second half allowed Sarpsborg 08 to edge ahead and maintain their lead until the final whistle. This result underscores how matches can defy expectations based on possession statistics alone.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sarpsborg 08 secured victory with significantly lower possession than Molde.
  • Efficiency shift: Performance efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for determining alignment with the result.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome matched the projected market alignment.
  • xG expectations: No specific xG expectations were detailed in the available data.
  • Event impact: The second half goal proved pivotal in securing the 2-1 win after a 1-1 halftime.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from disciplinary events occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Jaeger
A. Jaeger
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. B. V. Schulz
M. B. V. Schulz
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Al Fahad
A. Al Fahad
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Nilsen
O. Nilsen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
VS
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vålerenga Rank: 59 L
Fredrikstad Rank: 61 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 56 L
KFUM Rank: 57 L
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kristiansund Rank: 56 W
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Vålerenga Rank: 58 W
Start Rank: 51 D
HamKam Rank: 61 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 6 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sarpsborg 08
94.72%
Draw
5.09%
Away Molde
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sarpsborg 08
+2.42%
Draw
-2.29%
Molde
-0.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.64
65.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sarpsborg 08
Molde
Power Score
59.64
65.32
League Position
9
5
Global Rank
501
327

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sarpsborg 08 Molde

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.63
28.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.22
30.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sarpsborg 08 +0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Molde -0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Molde
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sarpsborg 08 Molde
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Molde
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Molde
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sarpsborg 08
vs
Molde
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sarpsborg 08 Molde
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sarpsborg 08 0.22
Molde 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Molde
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sarpsborg 08 0.01
Molde 0.07
Sarpsborg 08
Molde
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Molde had peak pressure around 72'.
  • Molde started the game with stronger pressure.
Sarpsborg 08 Pressure Molde Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Molde reached the top pressure at 72' (90.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Home
28 matches
Molde Molde Away
Match Record
10
Wins
12
6
Draws
6
12
Losses
10
Goals
39
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
39
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-26T00:02:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
1 M. Ndiaye
C. Niyukuri
Norway
12 C. Niyukuri
B. Utvik
Norway
4 B. Utvik
M. Koch
Netherlands
2 M. Koch
A. Hiim
Norway
21 A. Hiim
S. Sørli
Norway
10 S. Sørli
V. Halvorsen
Norway
22 V. Halvorsen
S. Christiansen
Norway
8 (C) S. Christiansen
N. Williams
Substitution
Sweden
17 N. Williams
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Substitution
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk
A. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
33 A. Hansen
A. Posiadała
Poland
22 A. Posiadała
M. Linnes
Substitution
Norway
25 M. Linnes
B. Risa
Norway
33 B. Risa
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
M. Møller Dæhli
Norway
17 M. Møller Dæhli
V. Hoff
Substitution
Norway
15 V. Hoff
S. Granaas
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Granaas
E. Breivik
Norway
10 (C) E. Breivik
E. Hestad
Substitution
Norway
5 E. Hestad
F. Gulbrandsen
Norway
8 F. Gulbrandsen

General Information

Date & Time
May 25, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 10 · Regular Season
Stadium
Sarpsborg Stadion
Capacity
8022
Attendance
7604
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aleksander Jaeger
Marius Benkestok Vesterhus Schulz
Abdulhadi Al Fahad
Ola Hobber Nilsen

Statistics

Possession
Sarpsborg 08
30%
Molde
70%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 6
27 Dangerous attacks 89
24 Possession 76
2 Corners 8
5 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Goal Kicks 7
1 Penalties 0
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
21 Throwins 21
3 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Injuries 0
70 Ball Safe 61
5 Goal Attempts 10
3 Substitutions 4
12 Dribble Attempts 21
1 Assists 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 113
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

70 Successful Passes Percentage 89
204 Passes 680
143 Successful Passes 608
2 Key Passes 12
50 Long Passes 38
17 Successful Long Passes 26
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 68

Defensive

36 Duels Won 50
13 Interceptions 8
5 Saves 0
19 Tackles 20

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 33
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Mamour Ndiaye
Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper
7.36
2
Menno Koch
Menno Koch Defender
7.14
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender
6.67
12
Claus Niyukuri
Claus Niyukuri Defender
6.53
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
7.22
8
Sander Christiansen
Sander Christiansen (C) Midfielder
7.18
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
6.59
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams Midfielder
6.69
32
Eirik Wichne
Eirik Wichne
Defender79'
6.65
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen Midfielder
6.32
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker
6.96
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder88'
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Attacker
6.59
5
Magnar Odegaard
Magnar Odegaard
Defender88'
Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
6.24
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
7.03
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
7.4
25
Martin Linnes
Martin Linnes Defender
6.47
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Attacker79'
6.51
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
7.26
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
7.08
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen
Midfielder75'
6.87
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik (C) Midfielder
7
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
6.69
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery
Attacker75'
6.54
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Midfielder
7.48
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Midfielder
7.5
31
Blerton Isufi
Blerton Isufi
Midfielder89'
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Attacker
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Blerton Isufi → Sondre Granaas
7th Substitution
Event
Bop Guèye → Daniel Karlsbakk
5th Substitution
88'
Event
Magnar Odegaard → Andreas Hansen
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Eirik Wichne → Noa Williams
4th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter → Martin Linnes
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Jacob Christensen → Eirik Hestad
1st Substitution
75'
Event
Caleb Zady Sery → Vebjørn Hoff
2nd Substitution
Event
Anders Hiim
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Even Sel
3rd Yellowcard
58'
57'
Event
Sondre Granaas
Penalty disallowed
Event
Claus Niyukuri
Yellow card cancelled
55'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Eirik Hestad
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
10'
Event
Eirik Hestad
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Karlsbakk
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
5'

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sarpsborg 08 2-1 Molde. Structural assessment: Sarpsborg 08 exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.