Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,330
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
World Cup
Fri, 3 Jul 10:00 PM
Argentina 3 – 2 Cape Verde Islands
Our prediction 13.1%
Market prediction 13.9%

Market was closer to the result by 0.8% (market 6.3% on actual outcome vs our 6.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 6.3% 6.3% +0.0%
Draw 91.8% 92.7% +0.9%
Away 1.9% 0.9% -0.9%
Market leans Away by 0.9% Max |Δ|: 0.9% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Sat, 16 May 2:00 PM
Rosenborg 2 – 3 Aalesund
Our prediction 99.5%
Market prediction 99.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.2% on the actual outcome vs market 92.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.3% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 7.4% 6.7% -0.7%
Away 92.3% 93.2% +0.8%
Model leans Away by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sun, 10 May 1:30 PM
Hamburger SV 3 – 2 SC Freiburg
Our prediction 99.5%
Market prediction 99.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.2% on the actual outcome vs market 92.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 92.3% 93.2% +0.8%
Draw 7.4% 6.7% -0.7%
Away 0.3% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
Premiership
Wed, 13 May 7:00 PM
Rangers 1 – 2 Hibernian
Our prediction 99.5%
Market prediction 99.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.2% on the actual outcome vs market 92.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.3% 0.2% -0.2%
Draw 7.3% 6.6% -0.7%
Away 92.4% 93.2% +0.8%
Model leans Away by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
La Liga
Sun, 10 May 2:15 PM
Athletic Club 0 – 1 Valencia
Our prediction 99.5%
Market prediction 99.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.2% on the actual outcome vs market 92.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 7.4% 6.7% -0.7%
Away 92.4% 93.2% +0.8%
Model leans Away by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 9 May 4:30 PM
Atlético de Madrid 0 – 1 Celta de Vigo
Our prediction 99.5%
Market prediction 99.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.2% on the actual outcome vs market 92.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 7.4% 6.7% -0.7%
Away 92.4% 93.2% +0.8%
Model leans Away by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
Premiership
Sun, 26 Apr 2:00 PM
Rangers 2 – 3 Motherwell
Our prediction 99.6%
Market prediction 99.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.3% on the actual outcome vs market 92.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 7.3% 6.6% -0.7%
Away 92.5% 93.3% +0.8%
Model leans Away by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
World Cup
Sat, 13 Jun 7:00 PM
Qatar 1 – 1 Switzerland
Our prediction 99.6%
Market prediction 99.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.7% on the actual outcome vs market 92.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.8% 0.4% -0.4%
Draw 92.9% 93.7% +0.8%
Away 6.4% 6.0% -0.4%
Model leans Draw by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
Premier League
Tue, 12 May 12:30 PM
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3 – 2 Polissya Zhytomyr
Our prediction 99.6%
Market prediction 99.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 93.8% on the actual outcome vs market 93.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 93.0% 93.8% +0.8%
Draw 6.4% 5.9% -0.5%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.8% Max |Δ|: 0.8% Open Preview
Premier League
Mon, 13 Apr 7:00 PM
Manchester United 1 – 2 Leeds United
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.1% on the actual outcome vs market 93.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.3% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 6.4% 5.8% -0.6%
Away 93.3% 94.1% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 3 May 3:15 PM
Strasbourg 1 – 2 Toulouse
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.1% on the actual outcome vs market 93.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 6.4% 5.8% -0.6%
Away 93.4% 94.1% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Serie B
Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Empoli 1 – 0 Avellino
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.1% on the actual outcome vs market 93.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 93.4% 94.1% +0.7%
Draw 6.4% 5.8% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 16 May 2:00 PM
Sporting Charleroi 0 – 1 Westerlo
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.1% on the actual outcome vs market 93.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 6.4% 5.8% -0.6%
Away 93.4% 94.1% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Superliga
Fri, 8 May 5:00 PM
Viborg FF 0 – 1 Sønderjyske Fodbold
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.1% on the actual outcome vs market 93.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 6.4% 5.8% -0.6%
Away 93.4% 94.1% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 11 Apr 2:15 PM
Elche 1 – 0 Valencia
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.1% on the actual outcome vs market 93.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 93.4% 94.1% +0.7%
Draw 6.4% 5.8% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Champions League
Wed, 29 Jul 5:00 PM
Lech Poznań 1 – 4 AGF
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 97.0% on the actual outcome vs market 96.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 1.4% 0.7% -0.7%
Draw 1.9% 2.2% +0.3%
Away 96.7% 97.0% +0.4%
Market leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 23 Jul 5:00 PM
Dinamo Tbilisi 3 – 0 Žalgiris
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 97.0% on the actual outcome vs market 96.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 96.7% 97.0% +0.4%
Draw 1.9% 2.2% +0.3%
Away 1.4% 0.7% -0.7%
Market leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 30 Jul 4:00 PM
Nõmme Kalju 2 – 1 Shelbourne
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.5% on the actual outcome vs market 93.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 93.7% 94.5% +0.7%
Draw 5.6% 5.2% -0.4%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 16 Jul 5:00 PM
Dinamo Tbilisi 1 – 1 Mondorf-les-Bains
Our prediction 10.5%
Market prediction 11.5%

Market was closer to the result by 1.0% (market 5.6% on actual outcome vs our 5.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Draw 5.6% 5.2% -0.4%
Away 93.7% 94.5% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Mon, 11 May 7:15 PM
Vitória Guimarães 0 – 1 Casa Pia
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 94.1% 94.8% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Hull City 2 – 1 Norwich City
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.1% 94.8% +0.7%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sat, 30 May 2:15 PM
Ceuta 1 – 0 Albacete
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Mon, 11 May 6:30 PM
Huesca 1 – 2 Real Sociedad II
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Model leans Away by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sun, 10 May 3:00 PM
LASK Linz 2 – 1 Salzburg
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 99.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 94.8% on the actual outcome vs market 94.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.2% 94.8% +0.7%
Draw 5.7% 5.1% -0.6%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.7% Max |Δ|: 0.7% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome