Empoli vs Avellino preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Carlo Castellani Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Empoli EMP
Avellino AVE
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Empoli host Avellino at Stadio Carlo Castellani in a pivotal Serie B regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 16th in the table, Empoli carry a slight edge with a power score of 51.61 against Avellino's 51.4, marking them as the marginally stronger side by 0.2 points. However, Avellino lurk in 8th place and boast far superior recent form at 21.06 compared to Empoli's modest 8.94. This matchup pits home comfort against visiting momentum, with Empoli desperate to climb from the lower reaches while Avellino aim to solidify their promotion push. Both sides lack detailed efficiency or set-piece metrics due to unavailable xG data, leveling the analytical playing field. Expect a tight contest where Empoli's home advantage could counter Avellino's hotter streak.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Empoli possess a narrow power advantage of 0.2 points with 51.61 over Avellino's 51.4.
  • Form: Avellino lead in form scores at 21.06 versus Empoli's 8.94.
  • Squad: Empoli sit 16th and Avellino 8th in the Serie B standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for this fixture.
  • Market: Projection split: Empoli 44.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.1% (Δ+0%) | Avellino 26.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 47 L
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Pescara Rank: 49 W
Spezia Rank: 51 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Mantova Rank: 53 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Südtirol Rank: 52 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Empoli
44.74%
Draw
29.14%
Away Avellino
26.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.61
51.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Empoli
Avellino
Power Score
51.61
51.4
League Position
16
8
Global Rank
666
673

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Empoli Avellino

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Empoli EMP Home
7 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
8
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T12:30:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
S. Romagnoli
Italy
4 S. Romagnoli
M. Lovato
Italy
20 M. Lovato
A. Candela
Italy
26 A. Candela
L. Magnino
Italy
8 L. Magnino
G. Yepes Laut
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
N. Haas
Switzerland
32 N. Haas
J. Ceesay
Sweden
15 J. Ceesay
M. Nasti
Italy
19 M. Nasti
S. Shpendi
Albania
11 S. Shpendi
G. Daffara
Italy
30 G. Daffara
A. Fontanarosa
Italy
63 A. Fontanarosa
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
P. Enrici
Italy
56 P. Enrici
T. Cancellotti
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
M. Besaggio
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
L. Palmiero
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
D. Sounas
Greece
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
T. Biasci
Italy
14 T. Biasci
C. Patierno
Italy
9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Capacity
16284
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Claudio Barone
Francesco Luciani
Davide Di Marco
Federico La Penna

Lineup

Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
6.77
4
Simone Romagnoli
Simone Romagnoli Defender
6.21
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato Defender
6.8
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
6.93
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
6.69
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
6.75
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela Midfielder
6.6
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas Midfielder
6.56
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Attacker
6.88
15
Joseph Ceesay
Joseph Ceesay Attacker
6.53
19
Marco Nasti
Marco Nasti Attacker
6.71
Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

30
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper
6.8
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
7.17
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
6.68
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Defender
6.7
63
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Alessandro Fontanarosa Defender
6.79
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
6.83
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
6.87
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
6.96
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
6.79
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
6.61
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Attacker
6.94

CONCLUSION

Empoli's home venue and fractional power edge set the stage for resilience against Avellino's stronger form and higher league position. With scant advanced stats available, the focus shifts to tangible momentum: Avellino's superior run suggests they can exploit any Empoli lapses. Yet, the Stadio Carlo Castellani has often proven a fortress, potentially tipping a cagey affair. Empoli must harness their slight superiority to grind out points, while Avellino seek to extend their impressive streak. This Serie B encounter promises intensity, likely hinging on execution in open play amid absent set-piece insights.