Lech Poznań vs AGF preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Enea stadion Wed, 29 Jul - 5:00 PM
Champions League
Lech Poznań LPO
1 4
AGF AGF
Full Time: Finished on Penalties Wed, 29 Jul 5:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 5 - 5
Filip Jagiełło - 1', 95'
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh - 3'
Antoni Kozubal - 5'
Yannick Agnero - 7'
Joel Pereira - 9'
Goal
|
Goal
Kristian Arnstad - 2', 55' (P)
Frederik Tingager - 4', 75'
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson - 6', 100'
Janni Serra - 8'
Tobias Bech - 10', 32'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Lech Poznań 1–4 AGF. The result saw AGF take the points. AGF showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Lech Poznań 2.5 – 2.3 AGF. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation from pre-match projections measured a minimal 3.3 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expected performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Home xG reached 2.51 while away xG finished at 2.34.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG projections indicated a tight contest yet the scoreline diverged.
  • Event impact: The 1-4 result secured AGF advancement on aggregate.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were recorded leaving match dynamics undistorted.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Xhaja
J. Xhaja
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Zalla
A. Zalla
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Kasa
T. Kasa
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Koçi
A. Koçi
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
VS
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
AGF Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: 73 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lech Poznań
1.44%
Draw
1.9%
Away AGF
96.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.32
74.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lech Poznań
AGF
Power Score
74.32
74.79
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
167
155

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lech Poznań AGF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.86
31.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.96
42.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lech Poznań — Efficiency Index
vs
AGF — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
AGF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lech Poznań
vs
AGF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lech Poznań AGF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
13%
52%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
5.00 6.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+4.67 vs +4.78
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lech Poznań AGF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
52%
13%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
6.00 5.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+4.78 vs +4.67
Lech Poznań
AGF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lech Poznań
vs
AGF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lech Poznań AGF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lech Poznań 0.30
AGF 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lech Poznań AGF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lech Poznań 0.17
AGF 0.07
Lech Poznań
AGF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LPO had peak pressure around 23'.
  • LPO started the game with stronger pressure.
LPO Pressure AGF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LPO reached the top pressure at 23' (78.18).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lech Poznań LPO Home
1 matches
AGF AGF Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
1.43
xG
0.94
0.94
xGA
1.43

Data last updated: 2026-07-30T00:02:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Lis
Poland
1 M. Lis
R. Gumny
Substitution
Poland
20 R. Gumny
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
T. Yegbe
Ghana
59 T. Yegbe
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
R. Murawski
Substitution
Poland
22 R. Murawski
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
21 P. Delgado
L. Palma Oseguera
Substitution
Honduras
77 L. Palma Oseguera
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 (C) M. Ishak
M. Christiansen
Norway
21 M. Christiansen
E. Kahl
Substitution
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
F. Tingager
Denmark
5 F. Tingager
J. Jensen-Abbew
Substitution
Denmark
40 J. Jensen-Abbew
F. Emmery Søgaard
Substitution
39 F. Emmery Søgaard
J. Jønsson
Substitution
Denmark
16 J. Jønsson
M. Knudsen
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
M. Anderson
Substitution
Iceland
23 M. Anderson
K. Malt Arnstad
Norway
10 (C) K. Malt Arnstad
T. Kristensen
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
J. Bogere
Substitution
28 J. Bogere

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 29, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 5 - 5
Stadium
Enea stadion
Capacity
42837
Attendance
36215
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Juxhin Xhaja
Arbër Zalla
Tauland Kasa
Andi Koçi

Statistics

Possession
LPO
49%
AGF
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
6 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 2
60 Dangerous attacks 46
49 Possession 51
14 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
7 Goal Kicks 9
7 Substitutions 7
25 Throwins 22
0 Assists 3
17 Dribble Attempts 15
8 Successful Dribbles 10
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67

Attacking

125 Attacks 121
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

57 Long Passes 67
456 Passes 495
359 Successful Passes 397
79 Successful Passes Percentage 80
12 Key Passes 11
26 Successful Long Passes 28
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

2 Saves 8
16 Tackles 16
8 Interceptions 8
52 Duels Won 53

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 19
9 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Juxhin Xhaja

Starting XI ▼

1
Mateusz Lis
Mateusz Lis Goalkeeper
6.14
15
Michał Gurgul
Michał Gurgul Defender
6.99
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny Defender
5.98
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira
Defender81'
7.3
27
Wojciech Mońka
Wojciech Mońka Defender
6.66
59
Terry Yegbe
Terry Yegbe Defender
6.05
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Midfielder
6.67
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder87'
6.51
21
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
6.67
24
Filip Jagiełło
Filip Jagiełło
Midfielder81'
7.29
22
Radosław Murawski
Radosław Murawski Midfielder
6.8
23
Gísli Thórdarson
Gísli Thórdarson
Midfielder98'
6.3
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
6.16
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma Midfielder
6.32
17
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Midfielder68'
6.83
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak (C) Attacker
6.75
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker88'
6.42
Referee : Juxhin Xhaja

Starting XI ▼

21
Mads Hedenstad
Mads Hedenstad Goalkeeper
8.76
5
Frederik Tingager
Frederik Tingager Defender
8.19
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
7.95
44
Mouhammade Camara
Mouhammade Camara
Defender90+3'
6.48
40
Jonas Jensen-Abbew
Jonas Jensen-Abbew Defender
6.71
45
C. Storch
C. Storch
Defender60'
6.2
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
6.87
16
Jens Jönsson
Jens Jönsson Midfielder
6.96
29
Rasmus Carstensen
Rasmus Carstensen
Defender70'
6.45
23
Mikael Anderson
Mikael Anderson Midfielder
6.59
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra
Attacker97'
6.7
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Midfielder
6.84
20
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Attacker97'
7.29
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad (C) Attacker
8.52
28
James Bogere
James Bogere Attacker
6.4
27
Stefen Tchamche
Stefen Tchamche
Attacker70'
6.44
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
7.86

Events

2ND-HALF
107'
Event
Mouhammade Camara
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Yannick Agnero
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
105+1'
100'
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Gísli Thórdarson → Radosław Murawski
12th Substitution
98'
97'
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson → Frederik Emmery
10th Substitution
97'
Event
Janni Serra → Mikael Anderson
11th Substitution
Event
Filip Jagiełło
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
95'
91'
Event
Frederik Emmery
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Mouhammade Camara → Eric Kahl
9th Substitution
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak 
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Patrik Wålemark
7th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Mikael Anderson
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Filip Jagiełło → Pablo Rodríguez
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Joel Pereira → Robert Gumny
6th Substitution
81'
75'
Event
Frederik Tingager
Header / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
Rasmus Carstensen → Jens Jönsson
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Stefen Tchamche  → James Bogere
4th Substitution
Event
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh → Luis Palma
2nd Substitution
68'
60'
Event
C. Storch → Jonas Jensen-Abbew
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Kristian Arnstad
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
53'
Event
Frederik Emmery
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
James Bogere
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Antoni Kozubal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
32'
Event
Tobias Bech
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Robert Gumny
Penalty disallowed
20'
10'
Event
Tobias Bech
Scored
Event
Joel Pereira
Scored
9'
8'
Event
Janni Serra
Scored
Event
Yannick Agnero
Scored
7'
6'
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Scored
Event
Antoni Kozubal
Goalkeeper save
5'
4'
Event
Frederik Tingager
Scored
Event
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Goalkeeper save
3'
2'
Event
Kristian Arnstad
Off target
Event
Filip Jagiełło
Scored
1'

Match Commentary

125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Janni Serra scores, making it 3 penalties for the team. The match remains 2-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Tomas Kristjansson scores, making it 1-2.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Antoni Kozubal. The match remains 1-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Frederik Tingager scores, making it 1-1.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Allahyar Sayyadmanesh. The score remains 1-0.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Kristian Malt Arnstad. The score remains 1-0.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Filip Jagiello scores, making it 1-0.
125
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Hakans takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
125
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
125
Attempt Attempt
Filip Jagiello takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
118
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mouhammade Camara.
113
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Terry Yegbe.
110
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Terry Yegbe.
109
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Giisli Thordarson with his right foot, but it missed.
107
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
105
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
105
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
105
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
105
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Tomas Kristjansson with his right foot results in a goal.
105
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tomas Kristjansson scores, making it 1-4.
102
Update Update
Giisli Thordarson replaces Radoslaw Murawski.
100
Update Update
On Tomas Kristjansson, off Frederik Emmery.
100
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Janni Serra is substituted off for Mikael Neville Anderson.
98
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Filip Jagiello takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
97
Attempt Attempt
Michal Gurgul takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
97
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Michal Gurgul with his left foot is saved.
95
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Filip Jagiello scores, making it 1-3.
95
Update Update
Offside.
95
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Frederik Tingager attempts a header but misses the shot.
91
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 0-3.
90
Update Update
Mouhammade Camara replaces Eric Kahl.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Neville Anderson takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Allahyar Sayyadmanesh with his left foot is saved.
90
Update Update
On Mel Yannick Joel Agnero comes on, and Mikael Ishak goes off.
88
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Hakans is substituted off for Patrik Walemark.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mikael Neville Anderson.
86
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mikael Neville Anderson receives a yellow card.
83
Update Update
On comes Joel Pereira, off goes Robert Gumny.
81
Update Update
Filip Jagiello comes on for Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Frederik Tingager Head Shot Goal
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Frederik Tingager scores to make it 0-3, assisted by Eric Kahl.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
74
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Carstensen attempts a header but misses the shot.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded.
71
Update Update
Stefen Tchamche is on, and James Bogere is off.
70
Update Update
Stefen Tchamche is on, and James Bogere is off.
70
Update Update
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh comes on for Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera.
68
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Substitution Substitution
Christian Storch is substituted off for Jonas Jensen-Abbew.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Attempt Attempt
Robert Gumny takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Frederik Emmery takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
50
Update Update
Offside.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
First half ends with the score at 0-1.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Antoni Kozubal.
40
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tobias Bech scores with a left-footed shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tobias Bech scores to make it 0-1.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision results in the penalty being cancelled.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jonas Jensen-Abbew.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak's header is saved.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Juxhin Xhaja.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Lech Poznań 1-4 AGF. Structural assessment: AGF exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.