Nõmme Kalju vs Shelbourne preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Pärnu Rannastaadion Thu, 30 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Nõmme Kalju KAL
2 1
Shelbourne SHE
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 6
Enrique Esono - 49'
Ibrahim Jabir - 75'
Goal
|
Goal
Daniel Kelly - 14'
Oleksandr Musolitin 31' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Nõmme Kalju 2–1 Shelbourne. The result saw Nõmme Kalju take the points. Nõmme Kalju showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 46%–54%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nõmme Kalju recorded a minimal deviation from expected structural performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with pre-match projections throughout.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be assessed due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG expectations were available to compare against actual events.
  • Event impact: Shelbourne led 0-1 at halftime before the match turned in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: The home side's red card created notable second-half distortion in play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Ellefsen
J. Ellefsen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Højgaard
D. Højgaard
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Djurhuus
J. Djurhuus
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. Madsen
H. Madsen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Nõmme Kalju N. Andreev
N. Andreev
VS
Shelbourne J. Russell
J. Russell
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shelbourne Rank: L
Linfield Rank: 47 D
Linfield Rank: 48 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nõmme Kalju Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nõmme Kalju
93.74%
Draw
5.62%
Away Shelbourne
0.63%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nõmme Kalju
+3.52%
Draw
-2.99%
Shelbourne
-0.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.78
47.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nõmme Kalju
Shelbourne
Power Score
27.78
47.41
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nõmme Kalju — Opponent-weighted form score
Shelbourne — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nõmme Kalju Shelbourne

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nõmme Kalju

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Shelbourne

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nõmme Kalju ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shelbourne
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.20
31.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.02
31.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nõmme Kalju +0.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Shelbourne -0.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nõmme Kalju
Shelbourne
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nõmme Kalju ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shelbourne
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nõmme Kalju Shelbourne
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nõmme Kalju Shelbourne
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nõmme Kalju
Shelbourne
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nõmme Kalju
vs
Shelbourne
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nõmme Kalju Shelbourne
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nõmme Kalju 0.16
Shelbourne 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nõmme Kalju Shelbourne
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nõmme Kalju 0.01
Shelbourne 0.03
Nõmme Kalju
Shelbourne
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHE had peak pressure around 37'.
  • KAL started the game with stronger pressure.
KAL Pressure SHE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHE reached the top pressure at 37' (49.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nõmme Kalju KAL Home
1 matches
Shelbourne SHE Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
2
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:01:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
H. Perk
Estonia
1 (C) H. Perk
D. Mashchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
78 D. Mashchenko
M. Podholjuzin
Estonia
50 M. Podholjuzin
R. Vukušić
Croatia
46 R. Vukušić
A. Boronilštšikov
Substitution
Estonia
4 A. Boronilštšikov
R. Siht
Estonia
26 R. Siht
O. Musolitin
Ukraine
8 O. Musolitin
B. Vaštšuk
Substitution
Estonia
59 B. Vaštšuk
T. Azevedo Baptista
Substitution
Portugal
21 T. Azevedo Baptista
M. Orlov
Substitution
Estonia
11 M. Orlov
E. Lottar Eyang
Equatorial Guinea
17 E. Lottar Eyang
E. Beach
Wales
19 E. Beach
J. Norris
Substitution
England
18 J. Norris
P. Barrett
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
29 (C) P. Barrett
K. Ledwidge
Republic of Ireland
4 K. Ledwidge
M. Mbeng
France
25 M. Mbeng
A. Coote
Scotland
14 A. Coote
K. Mcinroy
Substitution
Scotland
23 K. Mcinroy
D. Kelly
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
17 D. Kelly
S. Moore
Northern Ireland
22 S. Moore
R. Costa Freitas
Substitution
Portugal
20 R. Costa Freitas
E. Caffrey
Republic of Ireland
27 E. Caffrey

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 6
Stadium
Pärnu Rannastaadion
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jóhan Hendrik Ellefsen
Dan Højgaard
Jørleif Djurhuus
Høgni Madsen

Statistics

Possession
KAL
47%
SHE
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Shots 7
67 Dangerous attacks 95
46 Possession 54
5 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

100 Ball Safe 91
11 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 20
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

132 Attacks 172

Discipline

1 Offsides 4
16 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Jóhan Hendrik Ellefsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Henri Perk
Henri Perk (C) Goalkeeper
6.22
4
Alex Boronilstsikov
Alex Boronilstsikov Defender
6.26
22
Aleksandr Nikolajev
Aleksandr Nikolajev
Defender67'
6.5
46
Roko Vukušić
Roko Vukušić Defender
6.26
50
Maksim Podholjuzin
Maksim Podholjuzin Defender
6.26
78
Danyl Mashchenko
Danyl Mashchenko Defender
6.26
88
Daniil Sotsugov
Daniil Sotsugov
Defender46'
6.5
8
Oleksandr Musolitin
Oleksandr Musolitin Midfielder
5.27
17
Enrique Esono
Enrique Esono Midfielder
6.57
21
Tiago Baptista
Tiago Baptista Midfielder
6.37
10
Nikita Ivanov
Nikita Ivanov
Midfielder62'
6.56
26
Rommi Siht
Rommi Siht Midfielder
6.37
59
Bogdan Vastsuk
Bogdan Vastsuk Midfielder
6.37
20
Modou Tambedou
Modou Tambedou
Defender74'
6.49
11
Mihhail Orlov
Mihhail Orlov Attacker
6.46
30
Ibrahim Jabir
Ibrahim Jabir
Attacker62'
6.83
Referee : Jóhan Hendrik Ellefsen

Starting XI ▼

19
Eddie Beach
Eddie Beach Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Kameron Ledwidge
Kameron Ledwidge Defender
6.05
18
James Norris
James Norris Defender
6.26
2
Sean Gannon
Sean Gannon
Defender73'
6.26
25
Milan Mbeng
Milan Mbeng Defender
6.05
29
Paddy Barrett
Paddy Barrett (C) Defender
6.5
16
Odhran Casey
Odhran Casey
Defender46'
6.05
14
Ali Coote
Ali Coote Midfielder
6.27
17
Daniel Kelly
Daniel Kelly Midfielder
6.65
36
Will Jarvis
Will Jarvis
Attacker46'
6.43
23
Kerr McInroy
Kerr McInroy Midfielder
6.37
6
JJ Lunney
JJ Lunney
Midfielder63'
6.33
27
Evan Caffrey
Evan Caffrey Midfielder
6.27
20
Rodrigo Freitas
Rodrigo Freitas Attacker
6.5
44
Dan Ring
Dan Ring
Attacker46'
6.39
22
Sean Moore
Sean Moore Attacker
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nikita Ivanov
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Ibrahim Jabir
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Nikita Andreev
7th Yellowcard
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Dan Ring
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Nikita Andreev
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Modou Tambedou
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
77'
Event
JJ Lunney
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ibrahim Jabir
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
75'
Event
Modou Tambedou → Bogdan Vastsuk
10th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Sean Gannon → James Norris
9th Substitution
Event
Aleksandr Nikolajev → Alex Boronilstsikov
8th Substitution
67'
63'
Event
JJ Lunney → Kerr McInroy 
7th Substitution
Event
Nikita Ivanov → Tiago Baptista
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Ibrahim Jabir → Mihhail Orlov
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Enrique Esono
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
49'
Event
Daniil Sotsugov → Danyl Mashchenko
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Odhran Casey → Paddy Barrett 
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Will Jarvis → Daniel Kelly
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Dan Ring → Rodrigo Freitas
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Daniel Kelly
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Oleksandr Musolitin
Foul / 1st Redcard
31'
14'
Event
Daniel Kelly
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Daniel Ring.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
74
Update Update
Modou Tambedou replaces Bogdan Vastsuk.
73
Update Update
Sean Gannon replaces James Norris.
67
Update Update
On Aleksandr Nikolajev, off Alex Boronilstsikov.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Jonathan Lunney comes on for Kerr McInroy.
62
Update Update
Jabir Ibrahim comes on for Mihhail Orlov.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
46
Substitution Substitution
Danyl Mashchenko is substituted off for Daniil Sotsugov.
46
Update Update
William Jarvis is on, and Daniel Kelly is off.
46
Update Update
Odhran Casey comes on for Paddy Barrett.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Daniel Ring comes on for Rodrigo Freitas.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Daniel Kelly scores, making it 1-0.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Johan Hendrik Ellefsen.

CONCLUSION

Nõmme Kalju overcame a halftime deficit and a numerical disadvantage to secure a 2-1 victory over Shelbourne in leg two. The result allowed them to progress in the tie despite entering with a challenging aggregate position. Shelbourne controlled more possession yet could not maintain their lead after the interval. The red card altered the flow and forced adjustments that ultimately benefited the home side. This outcome highlighted resilience under pressure and effective second-half adjustments. Nõmme Kalju capitalized on opportunities while Shelbourne struggled to convert their territorial edge into further goals. The match demonstrated how key events can shift momentum decisively in knockout formats.