Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,330
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Ligue 1
Sun, 3 May 6:45 PM
Olympique Lyonnais 4 – 2 Rennes
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Super League
Sun, 3 May 2:30 PM
Grasshopper 0 – 2 Servette
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 2 May 1:30 PM
Werder Bremen 1 – 3 FC Augsburg
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Mon, 27 Apr 5:00 PM
Piast Gliwice 4 – 1 Arka Gdynia
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Allsvenskan
Mon, 27 Apr 5:00 PM
Mjällby 2 – 0 Halmstad
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Superliga
Sun, 26 Apr 12:00 PM
Fredericia 0 – 2 Odense BK
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sat, 25 Apr 5:00 PM
Göztepe 2 – 0 Antalyaspor
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Serie A
Sat, 25 Apr 4:00 PM
Bologna 0 – 2 Roma
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sat, 25 Apr 2:30 PM
Tondela 0 – 2 Nacional
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Premier League
Tue, 21 Apr 7:00 PM
Brighton & Hove Albion 3 – 0 Chelsea
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Tue, 21 Apr 4:30 PM
Blau-Weiß Linz 3 – 0 Wolfsberger AC
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Champions League
Tue, 14 Apr 7:00 PM
Liverpool 0 – 2 Paris Saint Germain
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sat, 11 Apr 4:45 PM
Sparta Rotterdam 0 – 2 PSV
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM
Liverpool 2 – 0 Fulham
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Cercle Brugge 3 – 0 La Louvière
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Serie B
Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Palermo 3 – 2 Catanzaro
Our prediction 99.2%
Market prediction 99.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.2% (assigned 91.1% on the actual outcome vs market 90.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 90.0% 91.1% +1.1%
Draw 9.5% 8.7% -0.8%
Away 0.5% 0.2% -0.2%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 23 May 7:00 PM
Valencia 3 – 1 FC Barcelona
Our prediction 99.4%
Market prediction 99.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.2% (assigned 91.9% on the actual outcome vs market 90.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 90.9% 91.9% +1.0%
Draw 8.7% 7.9% -0.8%
Away 0.5% 0.2% -0.2%
Model leans Home by 1.0% Max |Δ|: 1.0% Open Preview
La Liga
Wed, 13 May 5:00 PM
Espanyol 2 – 0 Athletic Club
Our prediction 99.4%
Market prediction 99.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.2% (assigned 91.9% on the actual outcome vs market 90.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 90.9% 91.9% +1.0%
Draw 8.7% 7.9% -0.8%
Away 0.5% 0.2% -0.2%
Model leans Home by 1.0% Max |Δ|: 1.0% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 18 Apr 2:00 PM
Newcastle United 1 – 2 AFC Bournemouth
Our prediction 99.4%
Market prediction 99.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.2% (assigned 91.9% on the actual outcome vs market 90.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.5% 0.2% -0.2%
Draw 8.7% 7.9% -0.8%
Away 90.9% 91.9% +1.0%
Model leans Away by 1.0% Max |Δ|: 1.0% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 30 Jul 4:00 PM
Zira 1 – 1 Paide
Our prediction 99.4%
Market prediction 99.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 91.9% on the actual outcome vs market 90.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 7.3% 7.2% -0.1%
Draw 90.9% 91.9% +1.0%
Away 1.9% 0.9% -0.9%
Model leans Draw by 1.0% Max |Δ|: 1.0% Open Preview
Premiership
Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Falkirk 1 – 0 Motherwell
Our prediction 99.4%
Market prediction 99.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.2% (assigned 91.9% on the actual outcome vs market 90.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 90.9% 91.9% +1.0%
Draw 8.7% 7.9% -0.8%
Away 0.4% 0.2% -0.2%
Model leans Home by 1.0% Max |Δ|: 1.0% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 30 Jul 5:00 PM
Nordsjælland 6 – 0 GAIS
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.9% on the actual outcome vs market 95.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.3% 95.9% +0.5%
Draw 2.8% 3.2% +0.4%
Away 1.9% 0.9% -0.9%
Market leans Away by 0.9% Max |Δ|: 0.9% Open Preview
Europa League
Thu, 23 Jul 6:00 PM
FC Twente 1 – 2 Ferencvárosi
Our prediction 99.5%
Market prediction 99.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 92.5% on the actual outcome vs market 91.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 1.2% 0.6% -0.6%
Draw 7.3% 6.9% -0.3%
Away 91.6% 92.5% +0.9%
Model leans Away by 0.9% Max |Δ|: 0.9% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 30 Jul 5:00 PM
Žalgiris 7 – 2 Dinamo Tbilisi
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.1% on the actual outcome vs market 94.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 94.5% 95.1% +0.6%
Draw 3.6% 3.9% +0.3%
Away 1.9% 0.9% -0.9%
Market leans Away by 0.9% Max |Δ|: 0.9% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome