Zira vs Paide preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Mehdi Hüseynzad? adina stadionu Thu, 30 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Zira ZIRA
1 – 1
Paide PAI
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 2
Eren Aydın - 5'
Goal
|
Goal
Henri Anier - 71'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Zira 1–1 Paide. The match ended in a draw. Paide showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 71%–29%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a moderate deviation level centered on Paide.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved market aligned according to recorded indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed undefined with null figures reported for both sides.
  • Event impact: The second-half equalizer produced the 1-1 scoreline after a 1-0 halftime.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role as neither team received a red card.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Kolarić
P. Kolarić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
I. Janić
I. Janić
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Knez
D. Knez
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Zira R. Sadıqov
R. Sadıqov
VS
Paide T. Kink
T. Kink
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paide Rank: L
Torpedo Kutaisi Rank: W
Torpedo Kutaisi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zira Rank: W
Hegelmann Litauen Rank: W
Hegelmann Litauen Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zira
7.27%
Draw
90.88%
Away Paide
1.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zira
-4.41%
Draw
+4.39%
Paide
+0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.67
41.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zira
Paide
Power Score
36.67
41.11
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zira — Opponent-weighted form score
Paide — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zira Paide

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zira

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paide

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zira ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paide
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.31
23.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.79
38.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zira +1.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Paide -1.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zira
Paide
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zira ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paide
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zira Paide
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zira Paide
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zira
Paide
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zira
vs
Paide
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zira Paide
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zira 0.17
Paide 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zira Paide
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zira 0.03
Paide 0.01
Zira
Paide
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAI had peak pressure around 73'.
  • ZIRA started the game with stronger pressure.
ZIRA Pressure PAI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAI reached the top pressure at 73' (58.42).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zira ZIRA Home
1 matches
Paide PAI Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:01:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Bayramov
Azerbaijan
13 A. Bayramov
Q. Alıyev
Azerbaijan
32 (C) Q. Alıyev
M. Ange
Rwanda
5 M. Ange
R. Bonifacio Augusto
Brazil
4 R. Bonifacio Augusto
I. Djibrilla
Niger
20 I. Djibrilla
B. Konaté
Substitution
France
93 B. Konaté
F. da Silva Tavares Vieira
Substitution
Portugal
17 F. da Silva Tavares Vieira
R. Martins Guimarães
Substitution
Mozambique
21 R. Martins Guimarães
A. Guseynov
Substitution
Russia
22 A. Guseynov
D. Volkovi
Georgia
9 D. Volkovi
E. Aydın
Substitution
Türkiye
7 E. Aydın
E. Jarju
Gambia
99 E. Jarju
M. Lilander
Estonia
2 M. Lilander
V. dos Santos de Sa
Brazil
3 V. dos Santos de Sa
N. Baranov
Estonia
27 N. Baranov
E. Tur
Estonia
7 E. Tur
M. Sohna
Gambia
11 M. Sohna
O. Hõim
Estonia
28 (C) O. Hõim
M. Miller
Substitution
Estonia
10 M. Miller
S. Luts
Substitution
Estonia
19 S. Luts
A. Badamosi
Substitution
30 A. Badamosi
D. Luts
Substitution
Estonia
77 D. Luts

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 2
Stadium
Mehdi Hüseynzad? adina stadionu
Capacity
10047
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrik Kolarić
Ivan Janić
Dino Knez
Patrik Pavlešić

Statistics

Possession
ZIRA
68%
PAI
32%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
12 Shots 3
124 Dangerous attacks 38
71 Possession 29
9 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

108 Ball Safe 83
19 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 4
30 Throwins 10
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

159 Attacks 67

Discipline

13 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

13
Aydyn Bayramov
Aydyn Bayramov Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Ruan Renato
Ruan Renato Defender
6.26
5
Ange Mutsinzi
Ange Mutsinzi Defender
6.26
20
Issa Djibrilla
Issa Djibrilla Defender
6.26
32
Qismat Aliyev
Qismat Aliyev (C) Defender
6.26
7
Eren Aydın
Eren Aydın Midfielder
6.57
—
Eren Aydın
80'
17
Vieirinha
Vieirinha Midfielder
6.37
8
Ismayil Ibrahimli
Ismayil Ibrahimli
Midfielder80'
6.5
21
Guima
Guima Midfielder
6.37
27
Loué Bayere Junior
Loué Bayere Junior
Attacker72'
6.5
93
Brahim Konaté
Brahim Konaté Midfielder
6.37
2
Amin Seydiyev
Amin Seydiyev
Defender89'
9
Davit Volkovi
Davit Volkovi Attacker
6.46
22
Aykhan Hüseynov
Aykhan Hüseynov Attacker
6.46
10
Giorgi Papunashvili
Giorgi Papunashvili
Midfielder72'
6.5
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

99
Ebrima Jarju
Ebrima Jarju Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Michael Lilander
Michael Lilander Defender
6.26
3
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Defender
6.26
7
Edgar Tur
Edgar Tur Defender
6.26
27
Nikita Baranov
Nikita Baranov Defender
6.26
10
Martin Miller
Martin Miller Midfielder
6.37
6
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral
Midfielder72'
6.5
11
Pa Modou Sohna
Pa Modou Sohna Midfielder
6.37
19
Siim Luts
Siim Luts Midfielder
6.37
17
Pa Abdou Cham
Pa Abdou Cham
Midfielder75'
6.5
28
Oskar Hoim
Oskar Hoim (C) Midfielder
6.37
77
Daniel Luts
Daniel Luts Midfielder
6.33
8
Henrik Ojamaa
Henrik Ojamaa
Midfielder62'
6.61
30
Abdourahman Badamosi
Abdourahman Badamosi Attacker
6.46
9
Henri Anier
Henri Anier
Attacker62'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Amin Seydiyev → Brahim Konaté
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Martins Júnior
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Ismayil Ibrahimli → Vieirinha
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Martins Júnior → Eren Aydın
8th Substitution
80'
75'
Event
Pa Abdou Cham → Siim Luts
6th Substitution
Event
Loué Bayere Junior → Guima
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Giorgi Papunashvili → Aykhan Hüseynov
5th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Daniel Cabral → Martin Miller
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Henri Anier
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
62'
Event
Henri Anier → Abdourahman Badamosi
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Henrik Ojamaa  → Daniel Luts
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Daniel Luts
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Eren Aydın
Field Goal / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Substitution Substitution
Amin Seydiyev is substituted for Brahim Konate.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
80
Update Update
Ismayil Ibrahimli replaces Filipe da Silva Tavares Vieira.
80
Substitution Substitution
Martins Junior is substituted off for Eren Aydin.
75
Substitution Substitution
Pa Abdou Cham is substituted off for Siim Luts.
72
Update Update
Giorgi Papunashvili is on, and Aykhan Guseynov is off.
72
Update Update
Loue Bayere Junior comes on for Ricardo Martins Guimaraes.
72
Update Update
Gustavo Daniel Cabral is on, and Martin Miller is off.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Update Update
Henrik Ojamaa replaces Daniel Luts.
62
Update Update
Henri Anier comes on for Abdouraham Badamosi.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Daniel Luts.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Dario Bel.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Zira 1-1 Paide. Structural assessment: Paide exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.