Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,135
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.6%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 76.9%
Our beats market 63%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.94 Average decimal odds (1.94) on our value pick across 1794 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1035 wins (57.7% hit rate).
Hit rate 57.7% 1035 of 1794 value picks won (57.7%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.73 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 57.7% = 1.73. Your average odds are 1.94. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.4% Flat bet ROI (3.4%) across 1794 finished value picks: 1035 wins, 759 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 57.7%, average odds 1.94. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,794 1794 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Championship
Wed, 22 Apr 6:45 PM
Middlesbrough 1 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday
Our prediction 99.6%
Market prediction 97.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.1% (assigned 92.8% on the actual outcome vs market 82.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 82.3% 92.8% +10.5%
Draw 12.1% 5.0% -7.2%
Away 5.6% 2.3% -3.3%
Model leans Home by 10.5% Max |Δ|: 10.5% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 11 Apr 11:30 AM
Coventry City 0 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday
Our prediction 11.5%
Market prediction 26.9%

Market was closer to the result by 15.4% (market 11.8% on actual outcome vs our 4.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 82.5% 92.9% +10.4%
Draw 11.8% 4.8% -7.0%
Away 5.7% 2.3% -3.4%
Model leans Home by 10.4% Max |Δ|: 10.4% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Sat, 18 Apr 12:00 PM
Bodø / Glimt 3 – 0 Aalesund
Our prediction 99.6%
Market prediction 97.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.0% (assigned 92.9% on the actual outcome vs market 82.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 82.6% 92.9% +10.4%
Draw 11.6% 4.7% -6.9%
Away 5.8% 2.4% -3.5%
Model leans Home by 10.4% Max |Δ|: 10.4% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 16 May 10:00 AM
SK Poltava 0 – 2 Dynamo Kyiv
Our prediction 99.6%
Market prediction 97.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.9% (assigned 93.1% on the actual outcome vs market 83.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 5.0% 2.5% -2.5%
Draw 12.1% 4.4% -7.7%
Away 83.0% 93.1% +10.2%
Model leans Away by 10.2% Max |Δ|: 10.2% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Thu, 30 Apr 5:00 PM
Bodø / Glimt 5 – 0 Start
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 98.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.7% (assigned 93.7% on the actual outcome vs market 84.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 84.1% 93.7% +9.6%
Draw 10.7% 4.2% -6.5%
Away 5.2% 2.1% -3.1%
Model leans Home by 9.6% Max |Δ|: 9.6% Open Preview
Thu, 16 Jul 8:00 PM
Vestri vs Qarabağ
OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 4.9% 2.5% -2.5%
Draw 10.9% 3.8% -7.2%
Away 84.1% 93.7% +9.6%
Model leans Away by 9.6% Max |Δ|: 9.6% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Wrexham 2 – 2 Middlesbrough
Our prediction 99.7%
Market prediction 98.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.6% (assigned 93.8% on the actual outcome vs market 84.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 8.5% 3.3% -5.2%
Draw 84.3% 93.8% +9.5%
Away 7.2% 2.8% -4.4%
Model leans Draw by 9.5% Max |Δ|: 9.5% Open Preview
Premier League
Mon, 18 May 7:00 PM
Arsenal 1 – 0 Burnley
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 98.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.4% (assigned 94.5% on the actual outcome vs market 85.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 85.7% 94.5% +8.8%
Draw 10.1% 3.4% -6.7%
Away 4.2% 2.1% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 8.8% Max |Δ|: 8.8% Open Preview
World Cup
Sun, 21 Jun 4:00 PM
Spain 4 – 0 Saudi Arabia
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 98.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.3% (assigned 94.6% on the actual outcome vs market 85.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 85.9% 94.6% +8.7%
Draw 9.2% 2.9% -6.3%
Away 4.9% 2.5% -2.5%
Model leans Home by 8.7% Max |Δ|: 8.7% Open Preview
World Cup
Sat, 20 Jun 12:30 AM
Brazil 3 – 0 Haiti
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 98.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.2% (assigned 95.0% on the actual outcome vs market 86.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 86.6% 95.0% +8.3%
Draw 9.0% 2.8% -6.1%
Away 4.4% 2.2% -2.2%
Model leans Home by 8.3% Max |Δ|: 8.3% Open Preview
Premier League
Sun, 10 May 12:30 PM
SK Poltava 0 – 4 Shakhtar Donetsk
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 99.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.8% (assigned 98.3% on the actual outcome vs market 90.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 2.1% 1.1% -1.1%
Draw 7.7% 0.6% -7.1%
Away 90.2% 98.3% +8.1%
Model leans Away by 8.1% Max |Δ|: 8.1% Open Preview
World Cup
Mon, 22 Jun 9:00 PM
France 3 – 0 Iraq
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 98.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.1% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 87.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 87.3% 95.3% +8.0%
Draw 8.8% 2.8% -6.0%
Away 4.0% 2.0% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 8.0% Max |Δ|: 8.0% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Burnley 0 – 2 Brighton & Hove Albion
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 98.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.3% (assigned 95.3% on the actual outcome vs market 87.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.9% 0.5% -0.5%
Draw 11.8% 4.3% -7.5%
Away 87.3% 95.3% +8.0%
Model leans Away by 8.0% Max |Δ|: 8.0% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sat, 30 May 2:15 PM
Real Sociedad II 1 – 1 Cultural Leonesa
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 99.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.7% (assigned 98.2% on the actual outcome vs market 90.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 6.2% 0.0% -6.2%
Draw 90.2% 98.2% +8.0%
Away 3.6% 1.8% -1.8%
Model leans Draw by 8.0% Max |Δ|: 8.0% Open Preview
Championship
Wed, 11 Mar 7:45 PM
Oxford United 1 – 0 Blackburn Rovers
Our prediction 75.1%
Market prediction 67.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 7.3% (assigned 42.4% on the actual outcome vs market 34.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 34.4% 42.4% +7.9%
Draw 31.6% 27.8% -3.8%
Away 33.9% 29.8% -4.1%
Model leans Home by 7.9% Max |Δ|: 7.9% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 24 Apr 7:00 PM
Sunderland 0 – 5 Nottingham Forest
Our prediction 63.4%
Market prediction 68.3%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 35.0% on actual outcome vs our 30.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.0% 42.9% +7.9%
Draw 29.9% 26.3% -3.6%
Away 35.0% 30.8% -4.2%
Model leans Home by 7.9% Max |Δ|: 7.9% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 25 Apr 1:00 PM
Südtirol 0 – 3 Mantova
Our prediction 60.7%
Market prediction 65.2%

Market was closer to the result by 4.5% (market 31.9% on actual outcome vs our 28.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 33.0% 29.0% -4.0%
Draw 35.1% 42.9% +7.9%
Away 31.9% 28.1% -3.9%
Model leans Draw by 7.9% Max |Δ|: 7.9% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sat, 14 Mar 4:00 PM
Grazer AK 2 – 0 Wolfsberger AC
Our prediction 63.5%
Market prediction 68.4%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 35.2% on actual outcome vs our 30.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.2% 30.9% -4.3%
Draw 29.4% 25.9% -3.6%
Away 35.4% 43.2% +7.8%
Model leans Away by 7.8% Max |Δ|: 7.8% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM
Stoke City 3 – 1 Watford
Our prediction 63.8%
Market prediction 68.8%

Market was closer to the result by 5.0% (market 35.7% on actual outcome vs our 31.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.7% 31.3% -4.3%
Draw 28.5% 25.1% -3.5%
Away 35.8% 43.6% +7.8%
Model leans Away by 7.8% Max |Δ|: 7.8% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Bristol City 0 – 1 West Bromwich Albion
Our prediction 63.9%
Market prediction 69.0%

Market was closer to the result by 5.0% (market 35.8% on actual outcome vs our 31.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.8% 43.6% +7.8%
Draw 28.3% 24.9% -3.4%
Away 35.8% 31.5% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 7.8% Max |Δ|: 7.8% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Brentford 2 – 2 Everton
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 99.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.7% (assigned 97.8% on the actual outcome vs market 90.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 5.5% 0.0% -5.5%
Draw 90.0% 97.8% +7.8%
Away 4.5% 2.2% -2.2%
Model leans Draw by 7.8% Max |Δ|: 7.8% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sun, 22 Mar 4:30 PM
St. Pauli 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
Our prediction 61.8%
Market prediction 66.6%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 33.3% on actual outcome vs our 29.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.0% 43.7% +7.7%
Draw 30.7% 27.0% -3.7%
Away 33.3% 29.3% -4.0%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Allsvenskan
Sun, 3 May 12:00 PM
Malmö FF 2 – 3 Mjällby
Our prediction 64.1%
Market prediction 69.1%

Market was closer to the result by 5.1% (market 36.0% on actual outcome vs our 31.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.0% 43.8% +7.7%
Draw 28.0% 24.6% -3.4%
Away 36.0% 31.7% -4.4%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
La Liga
Thu, 23 Apr 6:00 PM
Rayo Vallecano 1 – 0 Espanyol
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 98.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.3% (assigned 95.5% on the actual outcome vs market 87.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 87.8% 95.5% +7.7%
Draw 11.9% 4.3% -7.5%
Away 0.4% 0.2% -0.2%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Serie A
Sun, 19 Apr 4:00 PM
Pisa 1 – 2 Genoa
Our prediction 76.5%
Market prediction 69.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.9% (assigned 44.0% on the actual outcome vs market 36.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 32.0% 28.1% -3.9%
Draw 31.8% 27.9% -3.8%
Away 36.3% 44.0% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
1. HNL
Sun, 22 Mar 4:45 PM
Gorica 4 – 0 Rijeka
Our prediction 60.7%
Market prediction 65.4%

Market was closer to the result by 4.7% (market 32.1% on actual outcome vs our 28.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 32.1% 28.2% -3.9%
Draw 31.5% 27.7% -3.8%
Away 36.4% 44.1% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 16 May 6:00 PM
Juve Stabia 2 – 2 Monza
Our prediction 59.9%
Market prediction 64.5%

Market was closer to the result by 4.6% (market 31.2% on actual outcome vs our 27.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 32.3% 28.4% -3.9%
Draw 31.2% 27.5% -3.8%
Away 36.4% 44.1% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Premier League
Sun, 15 Mar 2:00 PM
Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Leeds United
Our prediction 56.9%
Market prediction 61.1%

Market was closer to the result by 4.2% (market 28.0% on actual outcome vs our 24.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.6% 31.3% -4.3%
Draw 28.0% 24.6% -3.4%
Away 36.5% 44.1% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 21 Mar 4:15 PM
Monza 1 – 1 Venezia
Our prediction 58.7%
Market prediction 63.1%

Market was closer to the result by 4.4% (market 29.9% on actual outcome vs our 26.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 33.7% 29.6% -4.1%
Draw 29.9% 26.3% -3.6%
Away 36.5% 44.1% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 12 Mar 5:45 PM
Lech Poznań 1 – 3 Shakhtar Donetsk
Our prediction 76.5%
Market prediction 69.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.9% (assigned 44.2% on the actual outcome vs market 36.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.0% 31.6% -4.4%
Draw 27.5% 24.2% -3.3%
Away 36.5% 44.2% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
VfL Wolfsburg 1 – 2 Hamburger SV
Our prediction 63.3%
Market prediction 68.3%

Market was closer to the result by 5.0% (market 35.2% on actual outcome vs our 30.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.5% 44.2% +7.7%
Draw 28.3% 24.9% -3.4%
Away 35.2% 30.9% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 16 Apr 4:45 PM
AZ 2 – 2 Shakhtar Donetsk
Our prediction 56.3%
Market prediction 60.3%

Market was closer to the result by 4.1% (market 27.3% on actual outcome vs our 24.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.5% 44.2% +7.7%
Draw 27.3% 24.0% -3.3%
Away 36.2% 31.8% -4.4%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 11 Apr 3:15 PM
Avellino 1 – 1 Catanzaro
Our prediction 57.7%
Market prediction 62.0%

Market was closer to the result by 4.3% (market 28.8% on actual outcome vs our 25.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.6% 44.3% +7.7%
Draw 28.8% 25.3% -3.5%
Away 34.6% 30.4% -4.2%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 3 May 5:00 PM
Antalyaspor 0 – 0 Alanyaspor
Our prediction 58.3%
Market prediction 62.7%

Market was closer to the result by 4.4% (market 29.5% on actual outcome vs our 25.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 33.9% 29.8% -4.1%
Draw 29.5% 25.9% -3.6%
Away 36.6% 44.3% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Pro League
Sun, 10 May 2:00 PM
Antwerp 0 – 1 Sporting Charleroi
Our prediction 76.6%
Market prediction 69.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.9% (assigned 44.3% on the actual outcome vs market 36.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.2% 30.9% -4.3%
Draw 28.2% 24.8% -3.4%
Away 36.6% 44.3% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Sun, 19 Apr 10:15 AM
Nieciecza 1 – 3 Wisła Płock
Our prediction 76.6%
Market prediction 69.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.9% (assigned 44.4% on the actual outcome vs market 36.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.0% 31.7% -4.4%
Draw 27.3% 24.0% -3.3%
Away 36.7% 44.4% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sat, 14 Mar 8:00 PM
Ceuta 1 – 2 Deportivo La Coruña
Our prediction 76.8%
Market prediction 70.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.8% (assigned 44.4% on the actual outcome vs market 36.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 32.3% 28.4% -3.9%
Draw 31.0% 27.3% -3.8%
Away 36.7% 44.4% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Fri, 15 May 4:00 PM
Zagłębie Lubin 0 – 1 Pogoń Szczecin
Our prediction 63.5%
Market prediction 68.6%

Market was closer to the result by 5.1% (market 35.5% on actual outcome vs our 31.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.7% 44.4% +7.7%
Draw 27.8% 24.4% -3.4%
Away 35.5% 31.2% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Allsvenskan
Mon, 13 Apr 5:00 PM
Sirius 2 – 0 Hammarby
Our prediction 63.8%
Market prediction 69.0%

Market was closer to the result by 5.1% (market 35.9% on actual outcome vs our 31.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.9% 31.6% -4.3%
Draw 27.4% 24.0% -3.3%
Away 36.7% 44.4% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Pro League
Tue, 21 Apr 6:30 PM
OH Leuven 0 – 2 Westerlo
Our prediction 76.7%
Market prediction 69.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.9% (assigned 44.4% on the actual outcome vs market 36.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.4% 32.0% -4.4%
Draw 26.8% 23.6% -3.2%
Away 36.8% 44.4% +7.7%
Model leans Away by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Mon, 4 May 5:00 PM
Radomiak Radom 3 – 1 Lechia Gdańsk
Our prediction 76.7%
Market prediction 69.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.9% (assigned 44.4% on the actual outcome vs market 36.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.8% 44.4% +7.6%
Draw 27.1% 23.8% -3.3%
Away 36.1% 31.8% -4.4%
Model leans Home by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 8 Mar 4:15 PM
Nice 0 – 4 Rennes
Our prediction 76.7%
Market prediction 69.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.9% (assigned 44.4% on the actual outcome vs market 36.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.8% 31.4% -4.3%
Draw 27.4% 24.1% -3.3%
Away 36.8% 44.4% +7.6%
Model leans Away by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Premier League
Sun, 26 Apr 12:30 PM
LNZ Cherkasy 1 – 1 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Our prediction 62.6%
Market prediction 67.6%

Market was closer to the result by 5.0% (market 34.5% on actual outcome vs our 30.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.8% 44.5% +7.6%
Draw 34.5% 30.3% -4.2%
Away 28.7% 25.2% -3.5%
Model leans Home by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Champions League
Tue, 14 Apr 7:00 PM
Atlético Madrid 1 – 2 FC Barcelona
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 99.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.8% (assigned 98.5% on the actual outcome vs market 90.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.5% 0.2% -0.2%
Draw 8.7% 1.3% -7.4%
Away 90.9% 98.5% +7.6%
Model leans Away by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM
Modena 1 – 2 Frosinone
Our prediction 76.8%
Market prediction 70.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.8% (assigned 44.6% on the actual outcome vs market 36.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.0% 31.6% -4.4%
Draw 27.1% 23.8% -3.3%
Away 36.9% 44.6% +7.6%
Model leans Away by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Serie A
Sun, 17 May 6:45 PM
Sassuolo 2 – 3 Lecce
Our prediction 61.5%
Market prediction 66.3%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 33.1% on actual outcome vs our 29.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 37.0% 44.6% +7.6%
Draw 29.9% 26.3% -3.6%
Away 33.1% 29.1% -4.0%
Model leans Home by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 18 Apr 6:45 PM
Mechelen 1 – 2 Anderlecht
Our prediction 76.9%
Market prediction 70.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.8% (assigned 44.7% on the actual outcome vs market 37.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.3% 31.0% -4.3%
Draw 27.7% 24.3% -3.3%
Away 37.1% 44.7% +7.6%
Model leans Away by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Europa League
Thu, 12 Mar 5:45 PM
Bologna 1 – 1 Roma
Our prediction 59.9%
Market prediction 64.5%

Market was closer to the result by 4.6% (market 31.3% on actual outcome vs our 27.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 31.6% 27.8% -3.8%
Draw 31.3% 27.5% -3.8%
Away 37.1% 44.7% +7.6%
Model leans Away by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Pro League
Sun, 19 Apr 11:30 AM
Gent 0 – 0 Sint-Truiden
Our prediction 56.2%
Market prediction 60.3%

Market was closer to the result by 4.1% (market 27.3% on actual outcome vs our 24.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 37.1% 44.7% +7.6%
Draw 27.3% 24.0% -3.3%
Away 35.7% 31.3% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Swansea City 3 – 1 Charlton Athletic
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 98.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.2% (assigned 95.6% on the actual outcome vs market 88.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 88.0% 95.6% +7.6%
Draw 11.1% 3.9% -7.1%
Away 0.9% 0.5% -0.5%
Model leans Home by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome