Vestri vs Qarabağ preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
AVIS völlurinn
Europa League
VestriVES
0 3
QarabağQAR
Full Time
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 6
|
Goal
Zakaria Sawo - 57'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Vestri 0–3 Qarabağ. The result saw Qarabağ take the points. Qarabağ showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 27%–73%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match recorded a significant 19.2 percent deviation with Qarabağ exceeding projected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance metrics across both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing any alignment assessment with the scoreline.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved aligned with pre-match indicators for the result.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals expectations could not be evaluated because of absent data.
  • Event impact: The second leg produced a 3-0 win that finalized a 9-0 aggregate for Qarabağ.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics faced no related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Radina
M. Radina
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
K. Hájek
K. Hájek
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Kotalík
P. Kotalík
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Vokoun
D. Vokoun
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Vestri D. Osafo-Badu
D. Osafo-Badu
VS
Qarabağ Q. Qurbanov
Q. Qurbanov
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Qarabağ Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vestri Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vestri
8.17%
Draw
11.02%
Away Qarabağ
80.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vestri
+6.74%
Draw
+8.2%
Qarabağ
-14.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
20.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vestri
Qarabağ
Power Score
50
20.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vestri — Opponent-weighted form score
Qarabağ — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vestri Qarabağ

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vestri

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Qarabağ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vestri ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Qarabağ
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.96
25.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.00
17.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vestri -0.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Qarabağ +0.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vestri
Qarabağ
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vestri ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Qarabağ
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vestri Qarabağ
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vestri Qarabağ
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vestri
Qarabağ
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vestri
vs
Qarabağ
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vestri Qarabağ
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vestri 0.08
Qarabağ 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vestri Qarabağ
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vestri 0.04
Qarabağ 0.00
Vestri
Qarabağ
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • QAR had peak pressure around 19'.
  • QAR started the game with stronger pressure.
VES Pressure QAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: QAR reached the top pressure at 19' (70.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vestri VES Home
1 matches
Qarabağ QAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
0
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:03:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 6
Stadium
AVIS völlurinn
Capacity
3000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marek Radina
Kamil Hájek
Petr Kotalík
Daniel Vokoun

Statistics

Possession
VES
33%
QAR
67%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Shots 4
37 Dangerous attacks 85
27 Possession 73
1 Corners 13
7 Free kicks 12

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
14 Throwins 22

Attacking

86 Attacks 145

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Marek Radina

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Darri Steinarsson
Marvin Darri Steinarsson Goalkeeper
5.68
3
Edson
Edson Defender
5.88
14
B. Eydal
B. Eydal Defender
5.88
27
Chriss-Albin Alexander Mörfelt
Chriss-Albin Alexander Mörfelt
Midfielder78'
6.5
18
M. Hagbarðsson
M. Hagbarðsson Defender
5.88
22
E. Garðarsson
E. Garðarsson (C) Defender
5.88
23
Breki Thór Hermannsson
Breki Thór Hermannsson
Midfielder63'
6.5
45
G. Einarsson
G. Einarsson Defender
5.88
77
S. Fall
S. Fall Defender
5.88
29
Konstantin Cheshmedjiev
Konstantin Cheshmedjiev
Defender63'
6.5
7
J. Stensson
J. Stensson Midfielder
6.18
17
G. Hauksson
G. Hauksson
Midfielder63'
6.5
11
J. Selvén
J. Selvén Midfielder
6.18
10
Þ. Hafþórsson
Þ. Hafþórsson
Midfielder70'
6.5
13
A. Jóhannsson
A. Jóhannsson Midfielder
6.18
19
E. Duah
E. Duah Midfielder
6.18
Referee : Marek Radina

Starting XI ▼

99
Mateusz Kochalski
Mateusz Kochalski Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Matheus Silva
Matheus Silva Defender
6.5
4
Bence Várkonyi
Bence Várkonyi Defender
6.5
5
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Defender
6.5
—
Bruno Langa
75'
55
Badavi Hüseynov
Badavi Hüseynov (C) Defender
6.5
25
Cebrail Makreckis
Cebrail Makreckis
Midfielder75'
6.5
7
Jaly Mouaddib
Jaly Mouaddib Midfielder
6.69
21
Oleksiy Kashchuk
Oleksiy Kashchuk
Midfielder63'
6.5
8
Marko Jankovic
Marko Jankovic Midfielder
6.5
10
Abdellah Zoubir
Abdellah Zoubir Midfielder
6.5
29
R. Cephas
R. Cephas
Attacker63'
6.5
20
Kady Borges
Kady Borges Midfielder
6.61
35
Pedro Bicalho
Pedro Bicalho Midfielder
6.69
88
Samuel Lobato
Samuel Lobato
Midfielder63'
6.5
11
Zakaria Sawo
Zakaria Sawo Attacker
7.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Chriss-Albin Alexander Mörfelt → B. Eydal
10th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Elvin Cafarquliyev → Bruno Langa
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Cebrail Makreckis → Badavi Hüseynov
9th Substitution
Event
Þ. Hafþórsson → J. Selvén
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Konstantin Cheshmedjiev → S. Fall
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
G. Hauksson → J. Stensson
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Breki Thór Hermannsson → E. Garðarsson
4th Substitution
63'
63'
Event
R. Cephas → Abdellah Zoubir
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Oleksiy Kashchuk → Jaly Mouaddib
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Samuel Lobato → Pedro Bicalho
6th Substitution
57'
Event
Zakaria Sawo
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Pedro Bicalho
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
5'
Event
Jaly Mouaddib
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Substitution Substitution
Albin Morfelt is substituted for Birkir Eydal.
74
Update Update
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev comes on for Bruno Alberto Langa.
74
Update Update
Cebrail Makreckis is on, and Badavi Huseynov is off.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Substitution Substitution
Thordur Gunnar Hafthorsson is substituted off for Johannes Selven.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Update Update
Breki Hermannsson replaces Elmar Atli Gardarsson.
63
Update Update
On Gunnar Jonas Hauksson, Off Jacob Stensson.
63
Update Update
Konstantin Chesmedzhiev comes on for Sergine Fall.
62
Update Update
On Oleksii Kashchuk, off Jaly Mouaddib.
62
Substitution Substitution
Samuel Lobato is substituted off for Pedro Henrique Rodrigues Bicalho.
62
Update Update
Renaldo Cephas is on, and Abdellah Zoubir is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zakaria Sawo scores, making it 0-3.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jaly Mouaddib scores, making it 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Marek Radina.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Vestri 0-3 Qarabağ. Structural assessment: Qarabağ exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.