Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,325
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
La Liga 2
Sun, 12 Apr 7:00 PM
Racing Santander 5 – 1 Almería
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.7% on the actual outcome vs market 95.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.1% 95.7% +0.6%
Draw 3.7% 3.7% +0.0%
Away 1.2% 0.6% -0.6%
Market leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Europa League
Thu, 16 Jul 6:30 PM
Žilina 2 – 1 Hajduk Split
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.7% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.7% +0.6%
Draw 4.2% 3.9% -0.2%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 16 Jul 3:00 PM
Astana 1 – 4 Dinamo City
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.7% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Draw 4.2% 3.9% -0.2%
Away 95.2% 95.7% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Champions League
Tue, 14 Jul 6:00 PM
Drita 2 – 3 Kauno Žalgiris
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.7% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Draw 4.2% 3.9% -0.2%
Away 95.2% 95.7% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Europa League
Thu, 9 Jul 6:00 PM
Vojvodina 1 – 2 Ferencvárosi
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.7% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Draw 4.2% 3.9% -0.2%
Away 95.2% 95.7% +0.6%
Model leans Away by 0.6% Max |Δ|: 0.6% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Wed, 20 May 6:00 PM
Aalesund 2 – 1 Brann
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 17 May 2:00 PM
Kayserispor 2 – 1 Konyaspor
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Premiership
Mon, 4 May 4:30 PM
Hearts 2 – 1 Rangers
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Newcastle United 3 – 1 Brighton & Hove Albion
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 26 Apr 11:30 AM
Gençlerbirliği 1 – 0 Kocaelispor
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sat, 25 Apr 3:00 PM
WSG Tirol 1 – 0 Ried
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Pro League
Sun, 19 Apr 5:15 PM
La Louvière 0 – 2 Zulte-Waregem
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 18 Apr 11:30 AM
Portsmouth 1 – 0 Leicester City
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sun, 12 Apr 5:30 PM
FSV Mainz 05 0 – 1 SC Freiburg
Our prediction 99.8%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.8% on the actual outcome vs market 95.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.6% 4.1% -0.5%
Away 95.2% 95.8% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sun, 10 May 2:45 PM
Telstar 3 – 0 Heracles Almelo
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 95.9% on the actual outcome vs market 95.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.4% 95.9% +0.5%
Draw 3.7% 3.6% -0.1%
Away 0.9% 0.5% -0.5%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
World Cup
Thu, 25 Jun 8:00 PM
Ecuador 2 – 1 Germany
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Fri, 22 May 5:30 PM
Ried 2 – 1 SK Rapid
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Wed, 20 May 5:00 PM
Lillestrøm 1 – 2 Kristiansund
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Eliteserien
Sat, 16 May 6:00 PM
Vålerenga 3 – 2 Sarpsborg 08
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sun, 10 May 2:45 PM
Fortuna Sittard 3 – 2 PEC Zwolle
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
1. HNL
Sun, 10 May 2:00 PM
Osijek 0 – 1 Istra 1961
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Gençlerbirliği 3 – 2 Kasımpaşa
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Kocaelispor 0 – 1 Fatih Karagümrük
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Serie A
Fri, 8 May 6:45 PM
Torino 2 – 1 Sassuolo
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome