Astana vs Dinamo City preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Astana Arena Thu, 16 Jul - 3:00 PM
Europa Conference League
AstanaAST
1 4
Dinamo CityDIN
Full Time: After Extra Time Thu, 16 Jul 3:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 4
Goal
|
Goal
Bruno Dita - 50' (P)
H. Berisha - 62'
Lorenco Vila - 93'
Mustapha Koma - 120+4'
Kipras Kažukolovas 49' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Astana 1–4 Dinamo City. The result saw Dinamo City take the points. Dinamo City showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Astana 1-4 Dinamo City. Dinamo City showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment was not assessable given the absence of expected goals metrics.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without available data points.
  • Event impact: The match result significantly altered the aggregate score in the knockout tie.
  • Red card distortion: The red card issued to the home team caused notable distortion in second half dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Johnson
O. Johnson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Lundgren
M. Lundgren
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Robertsson
S. Robertsson
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Aganovic
A. Aganovic
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Astana G. Babayan
G. Babayan
VS
Dinamo City I. Daja
I. Daja
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo City Rank: 41 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Astana Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Astana
0.64%
Draw
4.18%
Away Dinamo City
95.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
48.52
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Astana
Dinamo City
Power Score
48.52
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Astana — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Astana Dinamo City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Astana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Astana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.34
41.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.07
35.34
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Astana -0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo City +0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Astana
Dinamo City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Astana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Astana Dinamo City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Astana Dinamo City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Astana
Dinamo City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Astana
vs
Dinamo City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Astana Dinamo City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Astana 0.17
Dinamo City 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Astana Dinamo City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Astana 0.05
Dinamo City 0.01
Astana
Dinamo City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AST had peak pressure around 41'.
  • AST started the game with stronger pressure.
AST Pressure DIN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AST reached the top pressure at 41' (58.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Astana AST Home
1 matches
Dinamo City DIN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:00:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 16, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 4
Stadium
Astana Arena
Capacity
14356
Attendance
15270
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oscar Johnson
Marcus Lundgren
Sebastian Robertsson
Adi Aganovic

Statistics

Possession
AST
47%
DIN
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
5 Shots 7
71 Dangerous attacks 80
44 Possession 56
5 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 30
5 Yellow Cards 5
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

125 Ball Safe 120
1 Penalties 1
10 Goal Attempts 12
6 Substitutions 4
27 Throwins 18
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

140 Attacks 172

Discipline

5 Offsides 0
26 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

93
Josip Condric
Josip Condric Goalkeeper
5.38
2
Karlo Bartolec
Karlo Bartolec Defender
6.04
45
Ivan Miladinović
Ivan Miladinović
Defender88'
6.05
3
Branimir Kalaica
Branimir Kalaica Defender
5.69
5
Kipras Kažukolovas
Kipras Kažukolovas Defender
5.66
11
Yan Vorogovskiy
Yan Vorogovskiy Defender
5.7
7
Dinmukhamed Karaman
Dinmukhamed Karaman Midfielder
6.18
20
Nnamdi Ahanonu
Nnamdi Ahanonu
Attacker106'
6.46
8
Ivan Basic
Ivan Basic Midfielder
6.37
15
Abzal Beysebekov
Abzal Beysebekov
Midfielder53'
6.18
9
Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
Bauyrzhan Islamkhan Midfielder
6.41
21
Alexander Merkel
Alexander Merkel
Midfielder53'
6.18
10
Marin Tomasov
Marin Tomasov (C) Midfielder
6.09
47
Maksat Abraev
Maksat Abraev Midfielder
6.37
77
Dmitriy Shomko
Dmitriy Shomko
Defender53'
5.88
81
Ramazan Karimov
Ramazan Karimov Attacker
6.39
72
Stanislav Basmanov
Stanislav Basmanov
Attacker76'
6.43
Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

77
Aldo Teqja
Aldo Teqja Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Ysni Ismaili
Ysni Ismaili Defender
6.36
13
Fabjan Përndreca
Fabjan Përndreca Defender
6.25
5
Erion Hoxhallari
Erion Hoxhallari
Defender91'
6.5
22
Bruno Dita
Bruno Dita (C) Defender
6.26
27
Naser Aliji
Naser Aliji Defender
6.26
8
Eridon Qardaku
Eridon Qardaku Midfielder
6.37
38
Mustapha Koma
Mustapha Koma
Attacker77'
6.83
10
Lorenco Vila
Lorenco Vila Midfielder
6.52
20
Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji
Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji Midfielder
6.37
88
Flamur Ruci
Flamur Ruci
Midfielder70'
6.5
21
Klevi Qefalija
Klevi Qefalija Midfielder
6.37
28
Isi Manellari
Isi Manellari Midfielder
6.44
29
H. Berisha
H. Berisha Attacker
6.82
24
Florenc Ferruku
Florenc Ferruku
Attacker104'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
120+4'
Event
Mustapha Koma
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Branimir Kalaica
Foul / 10th Yellowcard
111'
107'
Event
Florenc Ferruku
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Nnamdi Ahanonu → Dinmukhamed Karaman
10th Substitution
106'
105'
Event
Isi Manellari
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
104'
Event
Florenc Ferruku → H. Berisha
9th Substitution
93'
Event
Lorenco Vila
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
91'
Event
Erion Hoxhallari → Fabjan Përndreca
8th Substitution
Event
Ivan Miladinović → Karlo Bartolec
7th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
Mustapha Koma
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Fabjan Përndreca
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Mustapha Koma → Eridon Qardaku
6th Substitution
Event
Stanislav Basmanov → Ramazan Karimov
5th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Flamur Ruci → Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji
4th Substitution
Event
Ramazan Karimov
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Karlo Bartolec
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
64'
62'
Event
H. Berisha
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Abzal Beysebekov → Ivan Basic
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Alexander Merkel → Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
2nd Substitution
53'
Event
Dmitriy Shomko → Maksat Abraev
3rd Substitution
53'
50'
Event
Bruno Dita
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
Event
Kipras Kažukolovas
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kipras Kažukolovas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
Penalty / 1st Penalty
23'
22'
Event
Ysni Ismaili
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
Event
Lorenco Vila
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
22'
Event
Usni Ismaili
11th Yellowcard

Match Commentary

120
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mustapha Koma scores, bringing the score to 1-4.
111
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Branimir Kalaica receives a yellow card.
107
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
106
Substitution Substitution
Nnamdi Franklin Ahanonu is substituted on for Dinmukhamed Karaman.
106
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
104
Update Update
Florenc Ferruku is on, and Hekuran Berisha is off.
93
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lorenco Vila scores, making it 1-3.
91
Substitution Substitution
Erion Hoxhallari is substituted off for Fabjan Perndreca.
88
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Miladinovic is substituted for Karlo Bartolec.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mustapha Koma receives a yellow card.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
77
Update Update
Mustapha Koma comes on for Eridon Qardaku.
76
Update Update
Stanislav Basmanov is on, and Ramazan Karimov is off.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Flamur Ruci comes on for Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ramazan Karimov.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hekuran Berisha scores, making it 1-2.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alexander Merkel comes on for Bauyrzhan Islamkhan.
53
Update Update
Dmitri Shomko comes on for Maksat Abrayev.
53
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Merkel is substituted off for Bauyrzhan Islamkhan.
53
Update Update
Abzal Beysebekov comes on for Ivan Basic.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bruno Dita scores, making it 1-1.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Kipras Kazukolovas.
49
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kipras Kazukolovas receives a yellow card.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yellow card shown to Lorenco Vila.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bauyrzhan Islamkhan scores, making it 1-0.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Oscar Johnson.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Astana 1-4 Dinamo City. Structural assessment: Dinamo City exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.