Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,324
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Serie B
Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Bari 1908 2 – 0 Virtus Entella
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Europa League
Thu, 30 Apr 7:00 PM
Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Aston Villa
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Allsvenskan
Sun, 26 Apr 2:30 PM
Brommapojkarna 1 – 2 Västerås SK
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 26 Apr 12:00 PM
Córdoba 3 – 2 Sporting Gijón
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 25 Apr 4:30 PM
Valencia 2 – 1 Girona
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 25 Apr 1:00 PM
Virtus Entella 1 – 0 Calcio Padova
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
La Liga
Wed, 22 Apr 5:00 PM
Elche 3 – 2 Atlético de Madrid
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Allsvenskan
Wed, 22 Apr 5:00 PM
Örgryte 1 – 2 Brommapojkarna
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Pro League
Tue, 21 Apr 6:30 PM
Standard Liège 1 – 2 Antwerp
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 19 Apr 7:00 PM
Almería 3 – 2 Málaga
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sat, 18 Apr 2:30 PM
Nacional 1 – 0 Alverca
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Serie A
Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM
Udinese 0 – 1 Parma
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 12 Apr 4:30 PM
Cádiz 0 – 1 FC Andorra
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 11 Apr 4:15 PM
Standard Liège 1 – 2 Westerlo
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sat, 11 Apr 2:15 PM
Leganés 2 – 1 Albacete
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 4.2% 3.8% -0.4%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 30 Jul 5:30 PM
Beitar Jerusalem 2 – 3 AEK Larnaca
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Draw 3.7% 3.5% -0.2%
Away 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Model leans Away by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Champions League
Wed, 22 Jul 5:00 PM
Omonia Nicosia 1 – 0 Kairat
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 3.7% 3.5% -0.2%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 16 Jul 6:00 PM
KF Ballkani 3 – 2 Connah's Quay
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 3.7% 3.5% -0.2%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 16 Jul 3:00 PM
Inter Turku 2 – 1 Sarajevo
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 3.7% 3.5% -0.2%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 9 Jul 2:00 PM
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 2 – 1 Mornar
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 3.7% 3.5% -0.2%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome