Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,330
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Europa Conference League
Thu, 16 Jul 3:00 PM
Inter Turku 2 – 1 Sarajevo
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 3.7% 3.5% -0.2%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview
Europa Conference League
Thu, 9 Jul 2:00 PM
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 2 – 1 Mornar
Our prediction 99.9%
Market prediction 99.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 96.1% on the actual outcome vs market 95.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 95.6% 96.1% +0.5%
Draw 3.7% 3.5% -0.2%
Away 0.6% 0.3% -0.3%
Model leans Home by 0.5% Max |Δ|: 0.5% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome