Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,482
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.5%
Our beats market 65%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.91 Average decimal odds (1.91) on our value pick across 2070 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1222 wins (59.0% hit rate).
Hit rate 59.0% 1222 of 2070 value picks won (59.0%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.69 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 59.0% = 1.69. Your average odds are 1.91. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.4% Flat bet ROI (3.4%) across 2070 finished value picks: 1222 wins, 848 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 59.0%, average odds 1.91. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 2,070 2070 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Ligue 1
Sun, 8 Mar 4:15 PM
Brest 2 – 0 Le Havre
Our prediction 85.3%
Market prediction 80.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 4.3% (assigned 55.7% on the actual outcome vs market 49.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 49.7% 55.7% +6.1%
Draw 28.0% 24.6% -3.4%
Away 22.4% 19.7% -2.7%
Model leans Home by 6.1% Max |Δ|: 6.1% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 8 Mar 4:15 PM
LOSC Lille 1 – 1 Lorient
Our prediction 45.2%
Market prediction 50.6%

Market was closer to the result by 5.4% (market 23.1% on actual outcome vs our 20.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 60.9% 66.2% +5.2%
Draw 23.1% 20.0% -3.1%
Away 16.0% 13.8% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 5.2% Max |Δ|: 5.2% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sun, 8 Mar 4:00 PM
Hartberg 1 – 1 Blau-Weiß Linz
Our prediction 57.7%
Market prediction 62.1%

Market was closer to the result by 4.4% (market 29.0% on actual outcome vs our 25.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 37.4% 44.9% +7.6%
Draw 29.0% 25.5% -3.5%
Away 33.7% 29.6% -4.1%
Model leans Home by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sun, 8 Mar 4:00 PM
Sturm Graz 2 – 0 Rheindorf Altach
Our prediction 79.1%
Market prediction 73.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.1% (assigned 47.3% on the actual outcome vs market 40.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 40.0% 47.3% +7.3%
Draw 30.0% 26.4% -3.6%
Away 30.0% 26.4% -3.6%
Model leans Home by 7.3% Max |Δ|: 7.3% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sun, 8 Mar 4:00 PM
SK Rapid 1 – 0 Salzburg
Our prediction 51.6%
Market prediction 56.4%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 25.0% on actual outcome vs our 21.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 25.0% 21.9% -3.0%
Draw 25.8% 22.7% -3.1%
Away 49.2% 55.4% +6.1%
Model leans Away by 6.1% Max |Δ|: 6.1% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sun, 8 Mar 4:00 PM
LASK Linz 3 – 1 Wolfsberger AC
Our prediction 87.7%
Market prediction 84.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.6% (assigned 59.4% on the actual outcome vs market 53.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 53.8% 59.4% +5.6%
Draw 23.6% 20.8% -2.9%
Away 22.5% 19.8% -2.7%
Model leans Home by 5.6% Max |Δ|: 5.6% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sun, 8 Mar 4:00 PM
WSG Tirol 2 – 0 Grazer AK
Our prediction 76.1%
Market prediction 72.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 43.5% on the actual outcome vs market 39.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 39.5% 43.5% +4.0%
Draw 28.8% 26.9% -1.9%
Away 31.7% 29.6% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 4.0% Max |Δ|: 4.0% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Sun, 8 Mar 4:00 PM
Ried 0 – 2 Austria Wien
Our prediction 61.2%
Market prediction 63.7%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 30.8% on actual outcome vs our 28.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 40.2% 44.1% +3.9%
Draw 29.1% 27.2% -1.9%
Away 30.8% 28.7% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 3.9% Max |Δ|: 3.9% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sun, 8 Mar 3:45 PM
NAC Breda 3 – 3 Feyenoord
Our prediction 51.7%
Market prediction 56.5%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 25.4% on actual outcome vs our 22.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 24.3% 21.3% -2.9%
Draw 25.4% 22.3% -3.1%
Away 50.4% 56.4% +6.0%
Model leans Away by 6.0% Max |Δ|: 6.0% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sun, 8 Mar 3:30 PM
Estrela Amadora 2 – 2 Gil Vicente
Our prediction 55.1%
Market prediction 60.3%

Market was closer to the result by 5.2% (market 28.8% on actual outcome vs our 25.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 22.6% 19.8% -2.7%
Draw 28.8% 25.3% -3.5%
Away 48.6% 54.8% +6.2%
Model leans Away by 6.2% Max |Δ|: 6.2% Open Preview
Super League
Sun, 8 Mar 3:30 PM
Grasshopper 2 – 3 Lausanne Sport
Our prediction 73.4%
Market prediction 69.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.9% (assigned 40.7% on the actual outcome vs market 36.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.1% 33.7% -2.4%
Draw 27.4% 25.6% -1.8%
Away 36.5% 40.7% +4.2%
Model leans Away by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
Super League
Sun, 8 Mar 3:30 PM
Young Boys 1 – 2 Thun
Our prediction 61.8%
Market prediction 64.6%

Market was closer to the result by 2.8% (market 32.1% on actual outcome vs our 30.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 43.3% 47.1% +3.7%
Draw 24.5% 22.9% -1.6%
Away 32.1% 30.0% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 3.7% Max |Δ|: 3.7% Open Preview
La Liga
Sun, 8 Mar 3:15 PM
Getafe 2 – 0 Real Betis
Our prediction 65.3%
Market prediction 67.8%

Market was closer to the result by 2.5% (market 34.5% on actual outcome vs our 32.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 34.5% 32.2% -2.3%
Draw 34.7% 39.0% +4.3%
Away 30.8% 28.8% -2.0%
Model leans Draw by 4.3% Max |Δ|: 4.3% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 8 Mar 3:15 PM
FC Andorra 1 – 0 Sporting Gijón
Our prediction 77.3%
Market prediction 74.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.3% (assigned 45.0% on the actual outcome vs market 41.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 41.1% 45.0% +3.9%
Draw 28.6% 26.7% -1.9%
Away 30.2% 28.2% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 3.9% Max |Δ|: 3.9% Open Preview
Pro League
Sun, 8 Mar 3:00 PM
Gent 3 – 1 Mechelen
Our prediction 83.0%
Market prediction 78.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 5.0% (assigned 52.4% on the actual outcome vs market 45.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 45.9% 52.4% +6.5%
Draw 26.4% 23.2% -3.2%
Away 27.8% 24.4% -3.4%
Model leans Home by 6.5% Max |Δ|: 6.5% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sun, 8 Mar 2:30 PM
St. Pauli 0 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Our prediction 59.1%
Market prediction 61.4%

Market was closer to the result by 2.2% (market 28.3% on actual outcome vs our 26.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 37.6% 41.7% +4.1%
Draw 28.3% 26.4% -1.9%
Away 34.2% 31.9% -2.3%
Model leans Home by 4.1% Max |Δ|: 4.1% Open Preview
1. HNL
Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Hajduk Split 1 – 3 Dinamo Zagreb
Our prediction 82.5%
Market prediction 77.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 5.1% (assigned 51.7% on the actual outcome vs market 45.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 27.1% 23.8% -3.3%
Draw 27.9% 24.5% -3.4%
Away 45.1% 51.7% +6.6%
Model leans Away by 6.6% Max |Δ|: 6.6% Open Preview
Serie A
Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Bologna 1 – 2 Hellas Verona
Our prediction 39.7%
Market prediction 43.9%

Market was closer to the result by 4.3% (market 15.8% on actual outcome vs our 13.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 59.1% 64.4% +5.3%
Draw 25.1% 21.9% -3.3%
Away 15.8% 13.7% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 5.3% Max |Δ|: 5.3% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Lens 3 – 0 Metz
Our prediction 96.4%
Market prediction 94.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.5% (assigned 78.5% on the actual outcome vs market 74.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 74.3% 78.5% +4.2%
Draw 16.6% 13.9% -2.7%
Away 9.2% 7.7% -1.5%
Model leans Home by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
Serie A
Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Fiorentina 0 – 0 Parma
Our prediction 53.9%
Market prediction 56.7%

Market was closer to the result by 2.8% (market 26.9% on actual outcome vs our 25.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 54.5% 57.5% +3.0%
Draw 26.9% 25.1% -1.8%
Away 18.6% 17.4% -1.2%
Model leans Home by 3.0% Max |Δ|: 3.0% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Sun, 8 Mar 1:45 PM
Radomiak Radom 0 – 1 Katowice
Our prediction 58.6%
Market prediction 61.3%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 28.9% on actual outcome vs our 27.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 44.5% 48.2% +3.7%
Draw 26.6% 24.8% -1.8%
Away 28.9% 27.0% -1.9%
Model leans Home by 3.7% Max |Δ|: 3.7% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sun, 8 Mar 1:30 PM
Fortuna Sittard 1 – 4 Telstar
Our prediction 60.6%
Market prediction 65.7%

Market was closer to the result by 5.1% (market 32.8% on actual outcome vs our 28.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 40.4% 47.6% +7.2%
Draw 26.8% 23.6% -3.2%
Away 32.8% 28.8% -4.0%
Model leans Home by 7.2% Max |Δ|: 7.2% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sun, 8 Mar 1:30 PM
Go Ahead Eagles 1 – 4 FC Twente
Our prediction 88.8%
Market prediction 85.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.4% (assigned 61.4% on the actual outcome vs market 56.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 20.4% 17.9% -2.5%
Draw 23.6% 20.7% -2.9%
Away 56.0% 61.4% +5.4%
Model leans Away by 5.4% Max |Δ|: 5.4% Open Preview
Premier League
Sun, 8 Mar 1:30 PM
Karpaty 1 – 1 Kudrivka
Our prediction 48.0%
Market prediction 51.0%

Market was closer to the result by 3.0% (market 23.7% on actual outcome vs our 21.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 61.2% 64.0% +2.8%
Draw 23.7% 21.9% -1.7%
Away 15.1% 14.0% -1.1%
Model leans Home by 2.8% Max |Δ|: 2.8% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome