SK Rapid vs Salzburg preview
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Allianz Stadion
Round 7 ·
Championship Round
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 24
CONTEXT
SK Rapid pulled off a remarkable 1-0 upset victory over the stronger Salzburg at home, ending the match with a narrow lead after a tense encounter. The first half concluded 0-0, maintaining parity as both sides probed for openings without success. Rapid controlled 57% possession against Salzburg's 43%, dictating the tempo yet waiting until the second half to strike decisively with their lone goal. This result defied pre-match expectations, where Salzburg entered as favorites, showcasing Rapid's defensive solidity and opportunistic attack. No red cards disrupted play, and the absence of major second-half adjustments kept the game structured. The win highlights Rapid's home resilience, potentially reshaping their campaign while denting Salzburg's title aspirations in a tightly contested league.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: SK Rapid's victory exhibited a 71.8% structural deviation from expectations, deemed significant.
-
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match projections.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
-
Market alignment: Outcome diverged from pre-match market probabilities.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without recorded metrics.
-
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match flow.
-
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
L. Katholnig
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
D. Pfister
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
R. Brandner
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
1.33
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.61
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg
Rank:
L
Hartberg
Rank:
D
Austria Wien
Rank:
D
Sturm Graz
Rank:
L
LASK Linz
Rank:
W
Salzburg
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien
Rank:
W
Austria Wien
Rank:
W
LASK Linz
Rank:
L
Hartberg
Rank:
W
Sturm Graz
Rank:
D
SK Rapid
Rank:
L
17
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 20 - 44
44
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
SK Rapid
28.15%
Draw
26.76%
Salzburg
45.09%
Movement
Changes since opening
SK Rapid
-67.08%
Draw
+22.18%
Salzburg
+44.9%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.86
25
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Power Score
21.86
25
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
SK Rapid
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Salzburg
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
SK Rapid Salzburg
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
SK Rapid
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Salzburg
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
SK Rapid
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Salzburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.28
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
SK Rapid
-1.66
Efficiency Index
vs
Salzburg
+1.66
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Salzburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
SK Rapid
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Salzburg
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Salzburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
SK Rapid
vs
Salzburg
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Rapid
0.15
Salzburg
0.22
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
SK Rapid
0.00
Salzburg
0.03
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- RBS had peak pressure around 74'.
- RBS started the game with stronger pressure.
SCR Pressure
RBS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
RBS reached the top pressure at 74' (59.55).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 81 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
SK Rapid
SCR
Home
81
matches
Salzburg
RBS
Away
Match Record
17
Wins
44
20
Draws
20
44
Losses
17
Goals
101
Goals Scored
147
147
Goals Conceded
101
-46
Goal Difference
+46
Expected Goals
1.08
xG
1.75
1.75
xGA
1.08
Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:04:01+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
Match Formation
4-4-1-1
1 N. Hedl
55 N. Cvetković
77 B. Bolla
29 A. Romeo
18 M. Seidl
20 K. Ahoussou
L. Grgic
#879'
10 P. Dahl
90 J. Antiste
26 A. Weimann
A. Terzić
#390'
13 F. Krätzig
21 T. Drexler
44 J. Schuster
22 S. Lainer
18 M. Bidstrup
11 Y. Vertessen
K. Onisiwo
#957'
19 K. Konaté
General Information
Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 7 · Championship Round
Stadium
Allianz Stadion
Capacity
28345
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca
Luka Katholnig
Daniel Pfister
Roland Brandner
Next Match
SK Rapid
vs
LASK Linz
League: Admiral Bundesliga
Kickoff: Mon, 4 May - 6:30 PM
Venue: Raiffeisen Arena
Salzburg
vs
Sturm Graz
League: Admiral Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 3:00 PM
Venue: Red Bull Arena
Statistics
Possession
SCR
55%
RBS
45%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
3
Big Chances Created
3
2
Shots
7
34
Dangerous attacks
49
57
Possession
43
5
Corners
6
15
Free kicks
6
2
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
38
10
Successful Dribbles
5
20
Throwins
14
8
Goal Kicks
5
20
Dribble Attempts
13
84
Ball Safe
75
3
Goal Attempts
7
0
Hit Woodwork
1
5
Substitutions
5
1
Assists
0
Attacking
69
Attacks
75
2
Big Chances Missed
3
Possession
59
Successful Long Passes Percentage
37
88
Successful Passes Percentage
80
565
Passes
418
4
Key Passes
10
46
Long Passes
51
27
Successful Long Passes
19
495
Successful Passes
334
Defensive
54
Duels Won
44
7
Interceptions
11
16
Tackles
19
1
Saves
1
Build-up
4
Accurate Crosses
5
17
Total Crosses
19
Discipline
1
Offsides
1
6
Fouls
15
Lineup
Referee :
Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca
Manager ▼
J. Hoff Thorup
Coach
Starting XI ▼
20
Ange Ahoussou
Midfielder
6.72 8Lukas Grgic
6.52Midfielder79'
26
Andreas Weimann
Attacker
6.64 Substitutes ▼
Referee :
Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca
Manager ▼
D. Beichler
Coach
Starting XI ▼
3Aleksa Terzic
6.79Defender90'
22
Stefan Lainer
Defender
6.98
9Karim Onisiwo
6.67Attacker57'
Substitutes ▼
91
Anrie Chase
Defender
6.9 
37
Tim Trummer
Midfielder
6.84
Events
2ND-HALF
90'
9th Substitution
90'
Aleksa Terzic → Frans Krätzig
10th Substitution
3rd Yellowcard
89'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
88'
84'
8th Substitution
6th Substitution
79'
Lukas Grgic → Petter Nosa Dahl
7th Substitution
79'
78'
Stefan Lainer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
5th Substitution
69'
4th Substitution
69'
57'
Karim Onisiwo → Karim Konaté
2nd Substitution
57'
3rd Substitution
1st Substitution
51'
1ST-HALF
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'
CONCLUSION
SK Rapid's 1-0 triumph over Salzburg cements their status as surprise challengers, leveraging superior possession into a clinical finish that toppled the favorites. The goalless halftime set the stage for Rapid's second-half breakthrough, exposing Salzburg's inability to convert despite their pedigree. With efficiencies holding steady and no disruptive events, this significant deviation underscores football's volatility. Rapid gains crucial momentum, climbing standings with bolstered confidence, while Salzburg faces scrutiny over wasted dominance. Home advantage proved pivotal, affirming that precision often trumps strength in decisive moments.
