Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,330
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.2%
Our beats market 64%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.92 Average decimal odds (1.92) on our value pick across 1949 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1143 wins (58.6% hit rate).
Hit rate 58.6% 1143 of 1949 value picks won (58.6%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.71 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 58.6% = 1.71. Your average odds are 1.92. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.7% Flat bet ROI (3.7%) across 1949 finished value picks: 1143 wins, 806 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 58.6%, average odds 1.92. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 1,949 1949 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Super Lig
Fri, 1 May 5:00 PM
Gaziantep F.K. 0 – 2 Beşiktaş
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sat, 25 Apr 2:30 PM
Feyenoord 3 – 1 FC Groningen
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Stoke City 1 – 3 Portsmouth
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Wed, 22 Apr 4:30 PM
Salzburg 3 – 1 Austria Wien
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 19 Apr 3:15 PM
Metz 1 – 3 Paris
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Premier League
Sun, 19 Apr 1:00 PM
Nottingham Forest 4 – 1 Burnley
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 18 Apr 4:30 PM
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 3 RB Leipzig
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 18 Apr 2:00 PM
Leeds United 3 – 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Serie A
Fri, 17 Apr 6:45 PM
Inter 3 – 0 Cagliari
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Fri, 17 Apr 6:30 PM
Real Sociedad II 1 – 3 Racing Santander
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Championship
Tue, 14 Apr 7:00 PM
Southampton 3 – 0 Blackburn Rovers
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sun, 12 Apr 2:30 PM
Alverca 3 – 1 Casa Pia
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 11 Apr 5:30 PM
Monza 2 – 0 Bari 1908
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM
FC Barcelona 4 – 1 Espanyol
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sat, 2 May 3:00 PM
Paris Saint Germain 2 – 2 Lorient
Our prediction 99.4%
Market prediction 99.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.1% (assigned 91.6% on the actual outcome vs market 90.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 7.2% 7.3% +0.1%
Draw 90.6% 91.6% +1.0%
Away 2.3% 1.1% -1.1%
Market leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
World Cup
Fri, 3 Jul 3:00 AM
Switzerland 2 – 0 Algeria
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
World Cup
Thu, 2 Jul 12:00 AM
United States 2 – 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
World Cup
Sun, 28 Jun 2:00 AM
Jordan 1 – 3 Argentina
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
World Cup
Wed, 24 Jun 7:00 PM
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – 1 Qatar
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
World Cup
Fri, 19 Jun 7:00 PM
United States 2 – 0 Australia
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 24 May 2:15 PM
FC Andorra 0 – 2 Ceuta
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Sun, 17 May 10:15 AM
Piast Gliwice 1 – 3 Raków Częstochowa
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Model leans Away by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Fri, 8 May 4:00 PM
Raków Częstochowa 2 – 0 Korona Kielce
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview
Admiral Bundesliga
Mon, 4 May 6:30 PM
LASK Linz 3 – 1 SK Rapid
Our prediction 100.0%
Market prediction 100.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 0.0% (assigned 99.0% on the actual outcome vs market 97.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 97.9% 99.0% +1.1%
Draw 1.9% 0.9% -1.0%
Away 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Model leans Home by 1.1% Max |Δ|: 1.1% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome