Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Seattle Stadium Fri, 17 Jul - 2:30 AM
Major League Soccer
Seattle SoundersSEA
1 5
Portland TimbersPOT
Full Time Fri, 17 Jul 2:30 AM
Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Kevin Kelsy - 19', 63'
Kamal Miller - 56'
Cole Bassett - 60'

CONTEXT

Seattle Sounders hosted Portland Timbers in a match that ended 1-5. The halftime score was 0-1. Seattle entered as the stronger team yet Portland secured a comprehensive victory. Home expected goals totaled 0.55 while away expected goals reached 2.23 for a differential of minus 1.68. Possession finished at 48 percent for Seattle and 52 percent for Portland. No red cards were shown to either side. The outcome proved consistent with the underlying expected goals data. Portland produced the significant deviation from pre-match projections. Efficiency metrics remained in line with the observed performance levels throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Portland Timbers produced the significant deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance levels.
  • xG alignment: Outcome proved consistent with home xG of 0.55 and away xG of 2.23.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with market expectations for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Portland Timbers surpassed xG expectations by a wide margin.
  • Event impact: Final score of 1-5 reflected away dominance after 0-1 at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Mendoza
R. Mendoza
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Seattle Sounders B. Schmetzer
B. Schmetzer
VS
Portland Timbers Jack Cassidy
Jack Cassidy
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Los Angeles FC Rank: 70 L
LA Galaxy Rank: 62 L
SJ Earthquakes Rank: 66 W
San Diego Rank: 66 D
Sporting KC Rank: 51 D
Dallas Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SJ Earthquakes Rank: 66 L
Inter Miami Rank: 76 L
CF Montréal Rank: 57 D
Sporting KC Rank: 51 W
Real Salt Lake Rank: 65 L
San Diego Rank: 66 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.4
58.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
Power Score
70.4
58.5
League Position
6
12
Global Rank
230
576

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Seattle Sounders — Opponent-weighted form score
Portland Timbers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Seattle Sounders Portland Timbers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Seattle Sounders

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Portland Timbers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Seattle Sounders ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Portland Timbers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.63
45.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.29
30.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Seattle Sounders -1.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Portland Timbers +1.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Seattle Sounders
vs
Portland Timbers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Seattle Sounders Portland Timbers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
25%
29%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.14 vs -0.64
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Seattle Sounders Portland Timbers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
29%
25%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.64 vs -0.14
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Seattle Sounders
vs
Portland Timbers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Seattle Sounders Portland Timbers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Seattle Sounders 0.15
Portland Timbers 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Seattle Sounders Portland Timbers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Seattle Sounders 0.07
Portland Timbers 0.01
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • POT had peak pressure around 67'.
  • SEA started the game with stronger pressure.
SEA Pressure POT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: POT reached the top pressure at 67' (95.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Seattle Sounders SEA Home
5 matches
Portland Timbers POT Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-18T00:00:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 17, 2026, 02:30 AM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Seattle Stadium
Capacity
68740
Attendance
35383
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rosendo Mendoza

Statistics

Possession
SEA
46%
POT
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 5
1 Big Chances Created 8
2 Shots 8
74 Dangerous attacks 71
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 8
7 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

51 Ball Safe 73
8 Goal Kicks 6
8 Goal Attempts 15
5 Substitutions 5
11 Throwins 18
0 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Successful Headers 25
1 Assists 4
12 Dribble Attempts 19
7 Successful Dribbles 12
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63

Attacking

112 Attacks 93
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

37 Long Passes 55
454 Passes 509
390 Successful Passes 443
86 Successful Passes Percentage 87
7 Key Passes 15
15 Successful Long Passes 32
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58

Defensive

5 Saves 4
13 Tackles 11
11 Interceptions 7
33 Duels Won 55

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Rosendo Mendoza

Starting XI ▼

26
Andrew Thomas
Andrew Thomas Goalkeeper
6.33
5
Nouhou
Nouhou (C) Defender
6.13
25
Jackson Ragen
Jackson Ragen Defender
6.29
35
Antino Lopez
Antino Lopez Defender
6.01
39
Stuart Hawkins
Stuart Hawkins
Defender84'
6.35
85
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi Defender
5.84
45
Peter Kingston
Peter Kingston
Midfielder64'
6.74
9
Jesús Ferreira
Jesús Ferreira Midfielder
6.38
17
Paul Arriola
Paul Arriola
Attacker64'
6.52
11
Albert Rusnák
Albert Rusnák Midfielder
6.75
14
Paul Rothrock
Paul Rothrock Midfielder
6.46
31
Hassani Dotson
Hassani Dotson Midfielder
7.65
37
Snyder Brunell
Snyder Brunell Midfielder
6.13
95
Osaze De Rosario
Osaze De Rosario
Attacker64'
6.78
13
Jordan Morris
Jordan Morris Attacker
6.29
19
Danny Musovski
Danny Musovski
Attacker46'
6.56
Referee : Rosendo Mendoza

Starting XI ▼

41
James Pantemis
James Pantemis Goalkeeper
7.29
4
Kamal Miller
Kamal Miller Defender
8.07
5
Brandon Bye
Brandon Bye Defender
7.13
20
Finn Surman
Finn Surman Defender
6.72
27
Jimer Fory
Jimer Fory Defender
7.36
7
Ariel Lassiter
Ariel Lassiter Midfielder
6.98
28
Alexander Aravena
Alexander Aravena
Attacker73'
7.52
10
David Da Costa
David Da Costa Midfielder
8.82
11
Antony
Antony Midfielder
7.48
23
Ian Smith
Ian Smith
Defender90+1'
6.41
17
Cole Bassett
Cole Bassett Midfielder
7.68
30
José Luis Caicedo Barrera
José Luis Caicedo Barrera
Midfielder73'
6.51
21
Diego Chará
Diego Chará (C) Midfielder
6.7
80
Joao Ortiz
Joao Ortiz
Midfielder87'
19
Kevin Kelsy
Kevin Kelsy Attacker
2
8.68
9
Felipe Mora
Felipe Mora
Attacker87'
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Alexander Aravena
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
90+1'
Event
Ian Smith → Antony
10th Substitution
Event
Hassani Dotson
Header / 5th Goal
87'
87'
Event
Felipe Mora → Kevin Kelsy
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Joao Ortiz → Diego Chará
9th Substitution
Event
Stuart Hawkins → Antino Lopez
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Paul Rothrock
Penalty disallowed
82'
73'
Event
Alexander Aravena → Ariel Lassiter
5th Substitution
73'
Event
José Luis Caicedo Barrera → Cole Bassett
6th Substitution
Event
Paul Arriola → Jesús Ferreira
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Peter Kingston → Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Osaze De Rosario → Snyder Brunell
4th Substitution
64'
63'
Event
Kevin Kelsy
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
60'
Event
Cole Bassett
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
Event
Kamal Miller
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Paul Rothrock
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Danny Musovski → Jordan Morris
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jackson Ragen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
41'
19'
Event
Kevin Kelsy
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alexander Ernesto Aravena Guzman scores, making it 1-5.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-5.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexander Ernesto Aravena Guzman with his right foot, but it misses the target.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Substitution Substitution
Ian Smith is substituted for Antony Alves Santos.
90
Attempt Attempt
Osaze De Rosario attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Hassani Dotson Head Shot Goal
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-4.
87
Update Update
On comes Julio Ortiz, off goes Diego Ferney Chara Zamora.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Felipe Andres Mora Aliaga comes on for Kevin Kelsy.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
Stuart Hawkins is on, and Antino Lopez is off.
82
Update Update
VAR decision results in the penalty being cancelled for Paul Rothrock.
80
Attempt Attempt
Albert Rusnak takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Jose Luis Caicedo Barrera takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Jose Luis Caicedo Barrera comes on for Cole Bassett.
73
Update Update
Alexander Ernesto Aravena Guzman comes on for Ariel Lassiter.
71
Attempt Attempt
Danny Musovski takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Antony Alves Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Update Update
Jackson Ragen's header is blocked.
64
Update Update
Paul Arriola is on, and Jesus Ferreira is off.
64
Update Update
On comes Peter Kingston, off goes Kalani Kossa Rienzi.
64
Update Update
Osaze De Rosario comes on for Snyder Brunell.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Kelsy takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
63
Attempt Attempt
Antony Alves Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-4.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-4.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-3.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kamal Miller takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kamal Miller scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Brandon Bye.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Attempt Attempt
Paul Rothrock takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Paul Rothrock receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Antony Alves Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Danny Musovski replaces Jordan Morris.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Attempt Attempt
Antony Alves Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ariel Lassiter takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Jackson Ragen.
35
Attempt Attempt
Kalani Kossa Rienzi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Kalani Kossa Rienzi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
David Pereira Da Costa takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Snyder Brunell takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Kalani Kossa Rienzi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Brandon Bye takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Attempt Attempt
Antony Alves Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
David Pereira Da Costa takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Kelsy takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
17
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Kelsy attempted a header but missed the shot.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Attempt Attempt
Brandon Bye takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Kelsy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Update Update
Offside.
5
Update Update
Offside.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Kalani Kossa Rienzi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Rosendo Mendoza.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Seattle Sounders 1-5 Portland Timbers. Structural assessment: Portland Timbers exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.