VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
MHPArena Yesterday - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart VFB
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 1:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

VfB Stuttgart host Bayer 04 Leverkusen in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at MHPArena. Domestically, VfB Stuttgart sit 5th in the table while Bayer 04 Leverkusen are 4th. Power ranking favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen by 4.4 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bayer 04 Leverkusen possesses a 4.4-point power advantage over VfB Stuttgart.
  • Form: Bayer 04 Leverkusen leads with a form score of 33.78 against VfB Stuttgart's 18.
  • Squad: Bayer 04 Leverkusen ranks 4th in the Bundesliga, one spot above VfB Stuttgart at 5th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team in this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable due to insufficient recent outing details.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable as xG information is not enabled.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent for both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
  • Market: VfB Stuttgart 43.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.9% (Δ+0%) | Bayer 04 Leverkusen 32.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
VfB Stuttgart S. Hoeneß
S. Hoeneß
VS
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 D
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 W
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 75 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
Heidenheim Rank: 73 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 9 - 22
22
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home VfB Stuttgart
43.48%
Draw
23.88%
Away Bayer 04 Leverkusen
32.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.88
90.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Power Score
85.88
90.31
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
32
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
VfB Stuttgart — Opponent-weighted form score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) VfB Stuttgart Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

VfB Stuttgart VFB Home
37 matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Away
Match Record
6
Wins
22
9
Draws
9
22
Losses
6
Goals
45
Goals Scored
78
78
Goals Conceded
45
-33
Goal Difference
+33
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:06:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Nübel
Germany
33 A. Nübel
J. Karaboue Vagnomann
Germany
4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
L. Jaquez
Switzerland
14 L. Jaquez
J. Chabot
Germany
24 J. Chabot
R. Hendriks
Netherlands
3 R. Hendriks
J. Andrés Baixauli
Spain
30 J. Andrés Baixauli
A. Stiller
Germany
6 A. Stiller
J. Leweling
Germany
18 J. Leweling
B. El Khannous
Morocco
11 B. El Khannous
C. Führich
Germany
10 C. Führich
D. Undav
Germany
26 D. Undav
M. Flekken
Netherlands
1 M. Flekken
E. Tapsoba
Burkina Faso
12 E. Tapsoba
R. Andrich
Germany
8 R. Andrich
J. Quansah
England
4 J. Quansah
A. Grimaldo García
Spain
20 A. Grimaldo García
E. Palacios
Argentina
25 E. Palacios
A. García Serrano
Spain
24 A. García Serrano
M. Amare Culbreath
Germany
42 M. Amare Culbreath
N. Tella
Nigeria
23 N. Tella
I. Maza
Algeria
30 I. Maza
P. Schick
Czech Republic
14 P. Schick

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
MHPArena
Capacity
60449
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jan Clemens Neitzel
Stefan Lupp
Robert Hartmann
Robert Schröder

Lineup

Referee : Robert Schröder

Starting XI ▼

33
Alexander Nübel
Alexander Nübel Goalkeeper
7
3
Ramon Hendriks
Ramon Hendriks Defender
6.65
4
Josha Vagnoman
Josha Vagnoman Defender
6.7
14
Luca Jaquez
Luca Jaquez Defender
6.92
24
Jeff Chabot
Jeff Chabot Defender
7.04
6
Angelo Stiller
Angelo Stiller Midfielder
7.18
11
Bilal El Khannouss
Bilal El Khannouss Midfielder
7.19
30
Chema Andrés
Chema Andrés Midfielder
6.95
10
Chris Führich
Chris Führich Attacker
7.11
18
Jamie Leweling
Jamie Leweling Attacker
7.04
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav Attacker
7.33
Referee : Robert Schröder

Starting XI ▼

1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Jarell Quansah
Jarell Quansah Defender
6.89
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich Defender
6.77
12
Edmond Tapsoba
Edmond Tapsoba Defender
7.16
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Defender
7.51
42
Montrell Culbreath
Montrell Culbreath Defender
6.69
23
Nathan Tella
Nathan Tella Midfielder
7.02
24
Aleix García
Aleix García Midfielder
7.41
25
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios Midfielder
6.88
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Midfielder
7.14
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick Attacker
7.1

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 4.4-point edge. External projection is VfB Stuttgart 43.5%, draw 23.4%, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen 33.1%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.