Valencia vs Atlético Madrid preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mestalla Today - 2:15 PM
La Liga
Valencia VAL
Atlético Madrid ATM
KICKOFF : Today - 2:15 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Valencia welcome Atlético Madrid to the Estadio de Mestalla for a pivotal La Liga regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 12th in the standings, the hosts face a stern test against fourth-placed visitors who hold a commanding 88.48 power score compared to Valencia's 77.14, translating to an 11.3-point advantage for Diego Simeone's side. Despite this, home support has nudged perceptions in Valencia's favour, reflected in the baseline split. Form scores remain tightly contested at 14.06 for Los Che and 14.28 for Atlético, hinting at a balanced recent run. Atlético's higher league position underscores their squad depth and consistency, while Valencia will lean on Mestalla's atmosphere to unsettle the visitors. With no recent outings detailed, both teams enter on even recent footing, setting up a tactical battle where Atlético's edge in raw power could prove decisive.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atlético Madrid possess a structural superiority with an 88.48 power score against Valencia's 77.14.
  • Form: Form scores are nearly identical, with Valencia at 14.06 and Atlético Madrid at 14.28.
  • Squad: Valencia occupy 12th place in La Liga, trailing Atlético Madrid in fourth.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data remains unspecified in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance shows low confidence with no xG data available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG variables are not enabled, limiting advanced metric insights.
  • Market: Valencia 53.5% (Δ+2.7%) | Draw 24.6% (Δ-0.5%) | Atlético Madrid 22% (Δ-2.3%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 72 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 L
Sevilla Rank: 72 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Elche Rank: 73 L
Sevilla Rank: 72 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
Real Madrid Rank: 92 L
Getafe Rank: 76 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 15 - 24
24
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valencia
53.47%
Draw
24.58%
Away Atlético Madrid
21.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Valencia
+2.74%
Draw
-0.46%
Atlético Madrid
-2.26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.14
88.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valencia
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
77.14
88.48
League Position
12
4
Global Rank
83
16

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valencia Atlético Madrid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Valencia VAL Home
49 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
10
Wins
24
15
Draws
15
24
Losses
10
Goals
51
Goals Scored
76
76
Goals Conceded
51
-25
Goal Difference
+25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:08:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
R. Saravia
Argentina
20 R. Saravia
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
J. García Vayá
Spain
18 J. García Vayá
J. Gayá Peña
Spain
14 J. Gayá Peña
L. Rioja González
Spain
11 L. Rioja González
J. Guerra Moreno
Spain
8 J. Guerra Moreno
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
L. Ramazani
Belgium
17 L. Ramazani
U. Sadiq Mesbah
Nigeria
6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
L. Beltrán
Argentina
15 L. Beltrán
J. Oblak
Slovenia
13 J. Oblak
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
C. Lenglet
France
15 C. Lenglet
M. Pubill Pagès
Spain
18 M. Pubill Pagès
M. Llorente Moreno
Spain
14 M. Llorente Moreno
A. Rodríguez
Spain
10 A. Rodríguez
J. Resurrección Merodio
Spain
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
Spain
4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
G. Simeone
Argentina
20 G. Simeone
A. Sørloth
Norway
9 A. Sørloth
A. Griezmann
France
7 A. Griezmann

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de Mestalla
Capacity
49430
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
6.89
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
6.72
14
José Gayà
José Gayà Defender
6.67
18
Pepelu
Pepelu Defender
6.96
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia Defender
6.52
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
6.97
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Midfielder
6.7
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Midfielder
6.83
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani Midfielder
6.84
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq Attacker
6.52
15
Lucas Beltrán
Lucas Beltrán Attacker
6.64

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.88
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.79
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Defender
6.95
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
6.73
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
7.05
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
Rodrigo Mendoza Midfielder
6.57
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
6.99
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
6.94
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
6.97
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
6.97
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
6.81

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Atlético Madrid holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Atlético Madrid a 11.3-point edge. External projection is Valencia 51.5%, draw 24.8%, and Atlético Madrid 23.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.