Toulouse vs Monaco preview

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sat, 25 Apr - 7:05 PM
Ligue 1
Toulouse TOU
Monaco ASM
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 7:05 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 2025/2026 Ligue 1 regular season, Toulouse welcome Monaco to Stadium de Toulouse in a matchup highlighting contrasting fortunes. Toulouse languish in 12th place with a power score of 18.39 and form rating of 10.39, facing a Monaco side perched at 7th boasting 39.11 power and 40.89 form— a stark 20.7-point structural edge for the visitors. Monaco's superior metrics position them as the stronger outfit, while Toulouse seek home comfort to bridge the gap. Absent recent outing details, the focus sharpens on overall prowess. Efficiency and set piece insights remain unavailable without xG data, leaving room for tactical surprises. Toulouse must muster defensive solidity against Monaco's attacking fluency in this pivotal encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Monaco holds a 20.7-point power score advantage over Toulouse.
  • Form: Monaco's form score of 40.89 towers over Toulouse's 10.39.
  • Squad: Toulouse sit 12th and Monaco 7th in Ligue 1 standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided in available metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent for both teams in this analysis.
  • Market: Toulouse 23.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.8% (Δ+0%) | Monaco 52.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: L
LOSC Lille Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Lorient Rank: W
Metz Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Auxerre Rank: D
Paris Rank: L
Olympique Marseille Rank: W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: W
Brest Rank: W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 11 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
23.81%
Draw
23.81%
Away Monaco
52.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.39
39.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Monaco
Power Score
18.39
39.11
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Monaco

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
32 matches
Monaco ASM Away
Match Record
6
Wins
15
11
Draws
11
15
Losses
6
Goals
33
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
33
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:09:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
M. McKenzie
United States
3 M. McKenzie
C. Cresswell
England
4 C. Cresswell
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 R. Nicolaisen
D. Sidibé
France
19 D. Sidibé
C. Cásseres Yepes
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
P. Diop
Senegal
18 P. Diop
D. Methalie
24 D. Methalie
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
S. Hidalgo Massa
Argentina
11 S. Hidalgo Massa
E. Correia da Silva
Brazil
20 E. Correia da Silva
L. Hradecký
Finland
1 L. Hradecký
W. Faes
Belgium
25 W. Faes
D. Zakaria Lako Lado
Switzerland
6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
T. Kehrer
Germany
5 T. Kehrer
S. Adingra
Ivory Coast
24 S. Adingra
A. Bamba
France
23 A. Bamba
L. Camara
Senegal
15 L. Camara
J. Teze
Netherlands
4 J. Teze
A. Fati
Spain
31 A. Fati
M. Akliouche
France
11 M. Akliouche
F. Balogun
England
9 F. Balogun

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 07:05 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity
33150
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Clément Turpin
Benjamin Pages
Aurélien Drouet
Mickaël Leleu

Lineup

Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.77
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
6.69
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
6.71
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Defender
7.07
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Defender
6.73
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Defender
6.44
11
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Midfielder
6.76
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
7.27
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Midfielder
7.14
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.06
20
Emersonn
Emersonn Attacker
6.73
Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky Goalkeeper
6.79
4
J. Teze
J. Teze Defender
6.91
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
6.94
6
Denis Zakaria
Denis Zakaria Defender
6.87
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Defender
6.76
25
Wout Faes
Wout Faes Defender
6.78
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche Midfielder
7.06
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
7.22
23
Aladji Bamba
Aladji Bamba Midfielder
6.82
31
Ansu Fati
Ansu Fati Midfielder
6.87
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.97

CONCLUSION

Monaco arrive as clear favorites, their power and form dominance suggesting control against a Toulouse team relying on home turf. The 20.7-point edge underscores Monaco's quality, potentially exploiting Toulouse's lower rankings. Without granular efficiency or set piece stats, the game hinges on execution—Toulouse's grit versus Monaco's polish. Expect the visitors to dictate tempo, though a resilient home display could yield points. This fixture tests Toulouse's resolve amid Monaco's ascent.