Stoke City vs Portsmouth preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Bet365 Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Stoke City STK
Portsmouth PTM
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Stoke City host Portsmouth in Championship (Regular Season) at Bet365 Stadium. Domestically, Stoke City sit 17th in the table while Portsmouth are 20th. Power ranking favours Portsmouth by 14.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Portsmouth possesses a clear structural superiority with a 14.7 power advantage over Stoke City.
  • Form: Portsmouth's form score of 29.67 vastly outpaces Stoke City's 1.78.
  • Squad: Stoke City sit 17th in the Championship, while Portsmouth languish in 20th despite stronger metrics.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Portsmouth's higher power score suggests better transition play potential against Stoke.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics rely on low-confidence proxies with no xG data available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG data absence limits variable analysis, defaulting to power and form indicators.
  • Market: Stoke City 35.8% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 28.3% (Δ+0.2%) | Portsmouth 35.8% (Δ-0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
VS
Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: L
Wrexham Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coventry City Rank: L
Leicester City Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Stoke City
35.83%
Draw
28.34%
Away Portsmouth
35.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Stoke City
-0.08%
Draw
+0.15%
Portsmouth
-0.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.87
27.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Stoke City
Portsmouth
Power Score
12.87
27.55
League Position
17
20
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Stoke City Portsmouth

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Stoke City STK Home
9 matches
Portsmouth PTM Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
5
Goals
17
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
17
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:06:02+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Bazunu
31 G. Bazunu
S. Agina
50 S. Agina
R. Otegbayo
54 R. Otegbayo
A. Phillips
26 A. Phillips
E. Bocat
17 E. Bocat
T. Seko
12 T. Seko
B. Pearson
4 B. Pearson
M. Manhoef
42 M. Manhoef
L. Baker
8 L. Baker
S. Thomas
7 S. Thomas
S. Gallagher
20 S. Gallagher
N. Schmid
1 N. Schmid
C. Ogilvie
3 C. Ogilvie
M. Dia
55 M. Dia
R. Poole
5 R. Poole
J. Williams
2 J. Williams
A. Dozzell
21 A. Dozzell
M. Pack
7 M. Pack
M. Alli
27 M. Alli
C. Chaplin
36 C. Chaplin
A. Segečić
10 A. Segečić
C. Bishop
9 C. Bishop

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium
Bet365 Stadium
Capacity
30089
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Webb
Darren Williams
Daniel Leach
Martin Woods

Expected Lineup

Referee : David Webb

Starting XI ▼

31
Gavin Bazunu
Gavin Bazunu Goalkeeper
6.58
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher Centre Forward
6.8
8
Lewis Baker
Lewis Baker Attacking Midfield
6.92
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Left Back
6.81
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Right Wing
6.75
50
Syd Agina
Syd Agina Right Back
6.24
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Left Wing
6.97
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Left Back
6.68
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Defensive Midfield
6.62
54
Raphael Otegbayo
Raphael Otegbayo Right Back
5.96
12
Tatsuki Seko
Tatsuki Seko Defensive Midfield
6.68
Referee : David Webb

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicolas Schmid
Nicolas Schmid Goalkeeper
6.64
9
Colby Bishop
Colby Bishop Centre Forward
6.7
21
Andre Dozzell
Andre Dozzell Defensive Midfield
6.76
27
Millenic Alli
Millenic Alli Left Wing
6.59
2
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams Right Back
6.56
3
Connor Ogilvie
Connor Ogilvie Left Back
6.62
10
Adrian Segecic
Adrian Segecic Right Wing
6.74
36
Conor Chaplin
Conor Chaplin Attacking Midfield
6.61
55
Madiodio Dia
Madiodio Dia Left Back
6.73
5
Regan Poole
Regan Poole Right Back
6.83
7
Marlon Pack
Marlon Pack Defensive Midfield
6.93

CONCLUSION

Portsmouth's pronounced edges in power and form position them favorably, yet Stoke's home venue and league standing introduce uncertainty. Without reliable set piece or efficiency insights, the contest hinges on Portsmouth converting superior metrics into control. Stoke must disrupt transitions to exploit any complacency. Expect a tactical duel where Portsmouth's momentum clashes with Stoke's resilience, potentially yielding a narrow away success or draw. Key to watch: how Stoke mitigates the 14.7-point deficit in open exchanges.