Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,483
Live now 1
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.5%
Our beats market 65%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.91 Average decimal odds (1.91) on our value pick across 2070 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1222 wins (59.0% hit rate).
Hit rate 59.0% 1222 of 2070 value picks won (59.0%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.69 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 59.0% = 1.69. Your average odds are 1.91. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.4% Flat bet ROI (3.4%) across 2070 finished value picks: 1222 wins, 848 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 59.0%, average odds 1.91. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 2,070 2070 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Ligue 1
Sat, 7 Mar 8:05 PM
Toulouse 0 – 1 Olympique Marseille
Our prediction 81.0%
Market prediction 75.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 5.6% (assigned 49.7% on the actual outcome vs market 42.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 30.5% 26.8% -3.7%
Draw 26.7% 23.5% -3.2%
Away 42.8% 49.7% +6.9%
Model leans Away by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sat, 7 Mar 8:00 PM
Excelsior 1 – 2 SC Heerenveen
Our prediction 79.6%
Market prediction 73.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.0% (assigned 48.0% on the actual outcome vs market 40.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 33.7% 29.6% -4.1%
Draw 25.5% 22.4% -3.1%
Away 40.9% 48.0% +7.2%
Model leans Away by 7.2% Max |Δ|: 7.2% Open Preview
Serie A
Sat, 7 Mar 7:45 PM
Juventus 4 – 0 Pisa
Our prediction 99.4%
Market prediction 96.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.7% (assigned 91.1% on the actual outcome vs market 79.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 79.3% 91.1% +11.8%
Draw 14.1% 6.0% -8.0%
Away 6.7% 2.9% -3.8%
Model leans Home by 11.8% Max |Δ|: 11.8% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 7 Mar 7:45 PM
Union Saint-Gilloise 2 – 1 Genk
Our prediction 89.7%
Market prediction 86.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 63.1% on the actual outcome vs market 57.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 57.7% 63.1% +5.4%
Draw 23.6% 20.6% -3.0%
Away 18.7% 16.4% -2.4%
Model leans Home by 5.4% Max |Δ|: 5.4% Open Preview
Super League
Sat, 7 Mar 7:30 PM
Lugano 1 – 3 Luzern
Our prediction 57.7%
Market prediction 62.8%

Market was closer to the result by 5.1% (market 30.3% on actual outcome vs our 26.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 43.7% 50.5% +6.8%
Draw 26.1% 22.9% -3.2%
Away 30.3% 26.6% -3.7%
Model leans Home by 6.8% Max |Δ|: 6.8% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Sat, 7 Mar 7:15 PM
Widzew Lodz 2 – 1 Lech Poznań
Our prediction 78.1%
Market prediction 74.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 46.0% on the actual outcome vs market 42.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 42.1% 46.0% +3.8%
Draw 26.8% 25.0% -1.8%
Away 31.1% 29.0% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 3.8% Max |Δ|: 3.8% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sat, 7 Mar 7:00 PM
PSV 2 – 1 AZ
Our prediction 94.1%
Market prediction 91.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.2% (assigned 72.1% on the actual outcome vs market 67.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 67.3% 72.1% +4.8%
Draw 18.2% 15.5% -2.7%
Away 14.6% 12.4% -2.2%
Model leans Home by 4.8% Max |Δ|: 4.8% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 7 Mar 6:30 PM
Modena 0 – 0 Cesena
Our prediction 57.3%
Market prediction 60.2%

Market was closer to the result by 2.8% (market 29.3% on actual outcome vs our 27.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 50.7% 54.0% +3.3%
Draw 29.3% 27.4% -1.9%
Away 19.9% 18.6% -1.3%
Model leans Home by 3.3% Max |Δ|: 3.3% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sat, 7 Mar 5:30 PM
Burgos 2 – 0 Mirandés
Our prediction 84.6%
Market prediction 80.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 4.5% (assigned 54.9% on the actual outcome vs market 48.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 48.7% 54.9% +6.2%
Draw 29.5% 25.9% -3.6%
Away 21.8% 19.2% -2.6%
Model leans Home by 6.2% Max |Δ|: 6.2% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 7 Mar 5:30 PM
FC Köln 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Our prediction 86.2%
Market prediction 82.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 4.1% (assigned 57.1% on the actual outcome vs market 51.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 25.1% 22.0% -3.0%
Draw 23.8% 20.9% -2.9%
Away 51.2% 57.1% +5.9%
Model leans Away by 5.9% Max |Δ|: 5.9% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 7 Mar 5:30 PM
Atlético de Madrid 3 – 2 Real Sociedad
Our prediction 88.7%
Market prediction 85.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.4% (assigned 61.2% on the actual outcome vs market 55.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 55.7% 61.2% +5.4%
Draw 24.3% 21.3% -3.0%
Away 20.0% 17.5% -2.4%
Model leans Home by 5.4% Max |Δ|: 5.4% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 7 Mar 5:15 PM
Dender 2 – 2 Sporting Charleroi
Our prediction 54.2%
Market prediction 59.1%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 27.3% on actual outcome vs our 24.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 25.4% 22.4% -3.1%
Draw 27.3% 24.0% -3.3%
Away 47.3% 53.7% +6.4%
Model leans Away by 6.4% Max |Δ|: 6.4% Open Preview
Super League
Sat, 7 Mar 5:00 PM
Servette 2 – 1 Zürich
Our prediction 90.6%
Market prediction 87.5%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.0% (assigned 64.7% on the actual outcome vs market 59.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 59.4% 64.7% +5.3%
Draw 23.0% 20.0% -3.0%
Away 17.6% 15.3% -2.3%
Model leans Home by 5.3% Max |Δ|: 5.3% Open Preview
Super League
Sat, 7 Mar 5:00 PM
Sion 1 – 1 Winterthur
Our prediction 33.0%
Market prediction 38.5%

Market was closer to the result by 5.5% (market 17.5% on actual outcome vs our 14.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 73.5% 77.8% +4.3%
Draw 17.5% 14.6% -2.8%
Away 9.1% 7.6% -1.5%
Model leans Home by 4.3% Max |Δ|: 4.3% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sat, 7 Mar 5:00 PM
Beşiktaş 0 – 1 Galatasaray
Our prediction 66.2%
Market prediction 68.9%

Market was closer to the result by 2.7% (market 36.0% on actual outcome vs our 33.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 37.7% 41.8% +4.1%
Draw 26.3% 24.6% -1.7%
Away 36.0% 33.6% -2.4%
Model leans Home by 4.1% Max |Δ|: 4.1% Open Preview
Serie A
Sat, 7 Mar 5:00 PM
Atalanta 2 – 2 Udinese
Our prediction 52.8%
Market prediction 55.5%

Market was closer to the result by 2.7% (market 25.9% on actual outcome vs our 24.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 55.3% 58.2% +3.0%
Draw 25.9% 24.2% -1.7%
Away 18.8% 17.5% -1.2%
Model leans Home by 3.0% Max |Δ|: 3.0% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Sat, 7 Mar 4:30 PM
Piast Gliwice 1 – 3 Zagłębie Lubin
Our prediction 52.8%
Market prediction 55.2%

Market was closer to the result by 2.4% (market 23.5% on actual outcome vs our 22.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 48.1% 51.5% +3.4%
Draw 28.4% 26.5% -1.9%
Away 23.5% 22.0% -1.6%
Model leans Home by 3.4% Max |Δ|: 3.4% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 7 Mar 4:15 PM
Venezia 2 – 0 Reggiana
Our prediction 96.6%
Market prediction 95.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.5% (assigned 78.8% on the actual outcome vs market 74.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 74.7% 78.8% +4.2%
Draw 16.3% 13.6% -2.7%
Away 9.0% 7.5% -1.5%
Model leans Home by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
1. HNL
Sat, 7 Mar 4:15 PM
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 – 1 Varaždin
Our prediction 58.1%
Market prediction 60.7%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 28.3% on actual outcome vs our 26.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 44.3% 48.0% +3.7%
Draw 28.3% 26.4% -1.9%
Away 27.4% 25.6% -1.8%
Model leans Home by 3.7% Max |Δ|: 3.7% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sat, 7 Mar 3:30 PM
FC Groningen 3 – 1 Ajax
Our prediction 60.3%
Market prediction 65.5%

Market was closer to the result by 5.2% (market 32.8% on actual outcome vs our 28.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 32.8% 28.8% -4.0%
Draw 25.7% 22.6% -3.1%
Away 41.5% 48.6% +7.1%
Model leans Away by 7.1% Max |Δ|: 7.1% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sat, 7 Mar 3:30 PM
Alverca 0 – 0 AVS
Our prediction 49.7%
Market prediction 55.2%

Market was closer to the result by 5.5% (market 25.8% on actual outcome vs our 22.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 55.7% 61.5% +5.7%
Draw 25.8% 22.4% -3.3%
Away 18.5% 16.1% -2.4%
Model leans Home by 5.7% Max |Δ|: 5.7% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sat, 7 Mar 3:30 PM
Moreirense 1 – 1 Nacional
Our prediction 60.3%
Market prediction 62.6%

Market was closer to the result by 2.3% (market 29.4% on actual outcome vs our 27.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 37.5% 41.6% +4.1%
Draw 29.4% 27.5% -1.9%
Away 33.1% 30.9% -2.2%
Model leans Home by 4.1% Max |Δ|: 4.1% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sat, 7 Mar 3:15 PM
Real Sociedad II 4 – 2 Castellón
Our prediction 49.7%
Market prediction 54.4%

Market was closer to the result by 4.7% (market 23.5% on actual outcome vs our 20.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 23.5% 20.7% -2.8%
Draw 25.1% 22.1% -3.0%
Away 51.4% 57.3% +5.9%
Model leans Away by 5.9% Max |Δ|: 5.9% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 7 Mar 3:15 PM
Levante 1 – 1 Girona
Our prediction 59.0%
Market prediction 61.2%

Market was closer to the result by 2.2% (market 28.1% on actual outcome vs our 26.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.1% 32.8% -2.3%
Draw 28.1% 26.2% -1.9%
Away 36.8% 41.0% +4.2%
Model leans Away by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview

Our content is provided for informational purposes only we do not offer betting advice and accept no responsibility for any betting decisions or losses.

Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome