Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,482
Live now 0
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.5%
Our beats market 65%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.91 Average decimal odds (1.91) on our value pick across 2070 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1222 wins (59.0% hit rate).
Hit rate 59.0% 1222 of 2070 value picks won (59.0%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.69 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 59.0% = 1.69. Your average odds are 1.91. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.4% Flat bet ROI (3.4%) across 2070 finished value picks: 1222 wins, 848 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 59.0%, average odds 1.91. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 2,070 2070 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
FA Cup
Sun, 8 Mar 1:30 PM
Port Vale 1 – 0 Sunderland
Our prediction 38.3%
Market prediction 40.6%

Market was closer to the result by 2.3% (market 14.0% on actual outcome vs our 12.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 14.0% 12.9% -1.1%
Draw 23.3% 21.5% -1.8%
Away 62.7% 65.5% +2.8%
Model leans Away by 2.8% Max |Δ|: 2.8% Open Preview
La Liga
Sun, 8 Mar 1:00 PM
Villarreal 2 – 1 Elche
Our prediction 93.4%
Market prediction 91.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.4% (assigned 70.5% on the actual outcome vs market 65.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 65.5% 70.5% +5.0%
Draw 20.7% 17.7% -3.0%
Away 13.8% 11.8% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 5.0% Max |Δ|: 5.0% Open Preview
Super League
Sun, 8 Mar 1:00 PM
St. Gallen 3 – 0 Basel
Our prediction 82.5%
Market prediction 79.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.6% (assigned 51.7% on the actual outcome vs market 48.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 48.3% 51.7% +3.4%
Draw 25.0% 23.3% -1.6%
Away 26.8% 25.0% -1.8%
Model leans Home by 3.4% Max |Δ|: 3.4% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 8 Mar 1:00 PM
Konyaspor 1 – 1 Kasımpaşa
Our prediction 57.2%
Market prediction 60.0%

Market was closer to the result by 2.8% (market 28.9% on actual outcome vs our 27.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 50.1% 53.4% +3.3%
Draw 28.9% 27.0% -1.9%
Away 21.1% 19.7% -1.4%
Model leans Home by 3.3% Max |Δ|: 3.3% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 8 Mar 1:00 PM
Las Palmas 4 – 0 Ceuta
Our prediction 88.1%
Market prediction 86.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.8% (assigned 60.3% on the actual outcome vs market 57.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 57.4% 60.3% +2.9%
Draw 25.1% 23.4% -1.7%
Away 17.5% 16.3% -1.2%
Model leans Home by 2.9% Max |Δ|: 2.9% Open Preview
Pro League
Sun, 8 Mar 12:30 PM
Club Brugge 2 – 2 Anderlecht
Our prediction 42.5%
Market prediction 45.5%

Market was closer to the result by 3.0% (market 20.3% on actual outcome vs our 18.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 66.1% 68.8% +2.7%
Draw 20.3% 18.7% -1.6%
Away 13.6% 12.5% -1.1%
Model leans Home by 2.7% Max |Δ|: 2.7% Open Preview
Serie A
Sun, 8 Mar 11:30 AM
Lecce 2 – 1 Cremonese
Our prediction 79.8%
Market prediction 73.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.0% (assigned 48.1% on the actual outcome vs market 41.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 41.0% 48.1% +7.1%
Draw 32.4% 28.5% -3.9%
Away 26.6% 23.4% -3.2%
Model leans Home by 7.1% Max |Δ|: 7.1% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Sun, 8 Mar 11:15 AM
Motor Lublin 0 – 0 Górnik Zabrze
Our prediction 55.8%
Market prediction 60.3%

Market was closer to the result by 4.5% (market 27.4% on actual outcome vs our 24.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 31.9% 28.0% -3.9%
Draw 27.4% 24.1% -3.3%
Away 40.7% 47.9% +7.2%
Model leans Away by 7.2% Max |Δ|: 7.2% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Sun, 8 Mar 11:15 AM
Sparta Rotterdam 1 – 1 PEC Zwolle
Our prediction 48.2%
Market prediction 52.9%

Market was closer to the result by 4.7% (market 22.6% on actual outcome vs our 19.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 53.5% 59.1% +5.6%
Draw 22.6% 19.9% -2.7%
Away 23.9% 21.0% -2.9%
Model leans Home by 5.6% Max |Δ|: 5.6% Open Preview
Premier League
Sun, 8 Mar 11:00 AM
Zorya Luhansk 4 – 0 SK Poltava
Our prediction 94.7%
Market prediction 92.6%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.1% (assigned 73.8% on the actual outcome vs market 69.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 69.0% 73.8% +4.8%
Draw 19.9% 16.8% -3.1%
Away 11.1% 9.4% -1.7%
Model leans Home by 4.8% Max |Δ|: 4.8% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 8 Mar 10:30 AM
Gaziantep F.K. 1 – 1 Fatih Karagümrük
Our prediction 54.3%
Market prediction 59.0%

Market was closer to the result by 4.7% (market 26.8% on actual outcome vs our 23.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 45.2% 51.8% +6.6%
Draw 26.8% 23.5% -3.2%
Away 28.0% 24.6% -3.4%
Model leans Home by 6.6% Max |Δ|: 6.6% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 8 Mar 10:30 AM
Rizespor 1 – 0 Antalyaspor
Our prediction 91.1%
Market prediction 88.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.9% (assigned 65.8% on the actual outcome vs market 60.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 60.5% 65.8% +5.3%
Draw 23.4% 20.3% -3.1%
Away 16.1% 13.9% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 5.3% Max |Δ|: 5.3% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sun, 8 Mar 12:16 AM
Estoril 0 – 0 Casa Pia
Our prediction 49.7%
Market prediction 54.7%

Market was closer to the result by 5.0% (market 24.8% on actual outcome vs our 21.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 54.7% 60.2% +5.5%
Draw 24.8% 21.8% -3.0%
Away 20.5% 18.0% -2.5%
Model leans Home by 5.5% Max |Δ|: 5.5% Open Preview
FA Cup
Sun, 8 Mar 12:15 AM
Newcastle United 1 – 3 Manchester City
Our prediction 79.9%
Market prediction 73.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 5.9% (assigned 48.3% on the actual outcome vs market 41.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 33.0% 29.0% -4.0%
Draw 25.8% 22.7% -3.1%
Away 41.2% 48.3% +7.1%
Model leans Away by 7.1% Max |Δ|: 7.1% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sun, 8 Mar 12:15 AM
Málaga 3 – 3 Real Valladolid
Our prediction 58.5%
Market prediction 61.1%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 28.5% on actual outcome vs our 26.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 43.6% 47.3% +3.7%
Draw 28.5% 26.6% -1.9%
Away 27.9% 26.1% -1.8%
Model leans Home by 3.7% Max |Δ|: 3.7% Open Preview
La Liga
Sun, 8 Mar 12:15 AM
Athletic Club 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Our prediction 89.4%
Market prediction 85.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.4% (assigned 62.3% on the actual outcome vs market 56.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 21.0% 18.2% -2.7%
Draw 22.3% 19.4% -2.9%
Away 56.7% 62.3% +5.7%
Model leans Away by 5.7% Max |Δ|: 5.7% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Sun, 8 Mar 12:13 AM
Sporting Braga 2 – 2 Sporting CP
Our prediction 53.8%
Market prediction 58.7%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 26.8% on actual outcome vs our 23.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 26.0% 22.9% -3.1%
Draw 26.8% 23.5% -3.2%
Away 47.2% 53.6% +6.4%
Model leans Away by 6.4% Max |Δ|: 6.4% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 8 Mar 12:12 AM
Auxerre 0 – 0 Strasbourg
Our prediction 56.6%
Market prediction 61.5%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 29.0% on actual outcome vs our 25.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 27.7% 24.3% -3.3%
Draw 29.0% 25.4% -3.5%
Away 43.4% 50.2% +6.9%
Model leans Away by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview
FA Cup
Sun, 8 Mar 12:12 AM
Wrexham 2 – 4 Chelsea
Our prediction 90.0%
Market prediction 88.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.6% (assigned 63.6% on the actual outcome vs market 60.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 17.7% 16.4% -1.3%
Draw 21.5% 20.0% -1.6%
Away 60.7% 63.6% +2.9%
Model leans Away by 2.9% Max |Δ|: 2.9% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sun, 8 Mar 12:09 AM
Nantes 0 – 1 Angers SCO
Our prediction 56.8%
Market prediction 59.1%

Market was closer to the result by 2.3% (market 26.4% on actual outcome vs our 24.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 41.7% 45.5% +3.8%
Draw 31.9% 29.8% -2.1%
Away 26.4% 24.6% -1.7%
Model leans Home by 3.8% Max |Δ|: 3.8% Open Preview
Super Lig
Sun, 8 Mar 12:02 AM
İstanbul Başakşehir 2 – 1 Göztepe
Our prediction 83.7%
Market prediction 81.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.4% (assigned 53.4% on the actual outcome vs market 50.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 50.1% 53.4% +3.3%
Draw 27.8% 26.0% -1.8%
Away 22.1% 20.6% -1.5%
Model leans Home by 3.3% Max |Δ|: 3.3% Open Preview
La Liga
Sun, 8 Mar 12:02 AM
Osasuna 2 – 2 Mallorca
Our prediction 56.6%
Market prediction 59.4%

Market was closer to the result by 2.7% (market 28.1% on actual outcome vs our 26.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 49.5% 52.8% +3.3%
Draw 28.1% 26.2% -1.9%
Away 22.4% 20.9% -1.5%
Model leans Home by 3.3% Max |Δ|: 3.3% Open Preview
Championship
Sun, 8 Mar 12:02 AM
Hull City 1 – 3 Millwall
Our prediction 76.5%
Market prediction 73.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.4% (assigned 44.1% on the actual outcome vs market 40.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 31.3% 29.2% -2.1%
Draw 28.6% 26.7% -1.9%
Away 40.1% 44.1% +4.0%
Model leans Away by 4.0% Max |Δ|: 4.0% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Sat, 7 Mar 8:05 PM
Toulouse 0 – 1 Olympique Marseille
Our prediction 81.0%
Market prediction 75.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 5.6% (assigned 49.7% on the actual outcome vs market 42.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 30.5% 26.8% -3.7%
Draw 26.7% 23.5% -3.2%
Away 42.8% 49.7% +6.9%
Model leans Away by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome