Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,487
Live now 4
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.5%
Our beats market 65%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.91 Average decimal odds (1.91) on our value pick across 2070 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1222 wins (59.0% hit rate).
Hit rate 59.0% 1222 of 2070 value picks won (59.0%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.69 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 59.0% = 1.69. Your average odds are 1.91. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.4% Flat bet ROI (3.4%) across 2070 finished value picks: 1222 wins, 848 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 59.0%, average odds 1.91. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 2,070 2070 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Super League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:09 PM
Lugano 2 – 1 Sion
Our prediction 82.2%
Market prediction 76.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 5.2% (assigned 51.3% on the actual outcome vs market 44.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 44.5% 51.3% +6.7%
Draw 27.9% 24.6% -3.4%
Away 27.5% 24.2% -3.3%
Model leans Home by 6.7% Max |Δ|: 6.7% Open Preview
Super League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:09 PM
Luzern 1 – 2 Young Boys
Our prediction 61.8%
Market prediction 64.6%

Market was closer to the result by 2.8% (market 32.1% on actual outcome vs our 30.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 43.3% 47.0% +3.7%
Draw 24.6% 23.0% -1.6%
Away 32.1% 30.0% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 3.7% Max |Δ|: 3.7% Open Preview
Super League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:09 PM
Zürich 1 – 2 Lausanne Sport
Our prediction 83.5%
Market prediction 81.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.4% (assigned 53.1% on the actual outcome vs market 49.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 25.6% 23.9% -1.7%
Draw 24.7% 23.1% -1.6%
Away 49.7% 53.1% +3.3%
Model leans Away by 3.3% Max |Δ|: 3.3% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Fri, 6 Mar 2:08 PM
Hamburger SV 0 – 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Our prediction 84.4%
Market prediction 79.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 4.6% (assigned 54.3% on the actual outcome vs market 48.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 26.2% 23.0% -3.2%
Draw 25.8% 22.7% -3.1%
Away 48.0% 54.3% +6.3%
Model leans Away by 6.3% Max |Δ|: 6.3% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:08 PM
Manchester City 2 – 2 Nottingham Forest
Our prediction 38.8%
Market prediction 44.4%

Market was closer to the result by 5.7% (market 20.4% on actual outcome vs our 17.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 68.2% 72.9% +4.8%
Draw 20.4% 17.3% -3.1%
Away 11.4% 9.7% -1.7%
Model leans Home by 4.8% Max |Δ|: 4.8% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:08 PM
Fulham 0 – 1 West Ham United
Our prediction 57.6%
Market prediction 62.6%

Market was closer to the result by 5.0% (market 30.1% on actual outcome vs our 26.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 43.3% 50.2% +6.9%
Draw 26.6% 23.4% -3.2%
Away 30.1% 26.4% -3.6%
Model leans Home by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:07 PM
Brighton & Hove Albion 0 – 1 Arsenal
Our prediction 89.3%
Market prediction 85.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 62.3% on the actual outcome vs market 56.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 18.6% 16.1% -2.4%
Draw 24.8% 21.6% -3.3%
Away 56.6% 62.3% +5.7%
Model leans Away by 5.7% Max |Δ|: 5.7% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:07 PM
Aston Villa 1 – 4 Chelsea
Our prediction 74.5%
Market prediction 70.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.7% (assigned 41.9% on the actual outcome vs market 37.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.4% 33.1% -2.3%
Draw 26.8% 25.0% -1.8%
Away 37.8% 41.9% +4.1%
Model leans Away by 4.1% Max |Δ|: 4.1% Open Preview
Serie B
Fri, 6 Mar 2:07 PM
Frosinone 2 – 2 Pescara
Our prediction 41.8%
Market prediction 47.1%

Market was closer to the result by 5.2% (market 20.1% on actual outcome vs our 17.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 62.5% 67.6% +5.2%
Draw 20.1% 17.3% -2.8%
Away 17.4% 15.0% -2.4%
Model leans Home by 5.2% Max |Δ|: 5.2% Open Preview
Serie B
Fri, 6 Mar 2:06 PM
Palermo 2 – 1 Mantova
Our prediction 90.9%
Market prediction 89.4%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.5% (assigned 65.4% on the actual outcome vs market 62.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 62.6% 65.4% +2.8%
Draw 22.4% 20.7% -1.7%
Away 15.1% 13.9% -1.1%
Model leans Home by 2.8% Max |Δ|: 2.8% Open Preview
Serie B
Fri, 6 Mar 2:06 PM
Juve Stabia 1 – 1 Sampdoria
Our prediction 62.2%
Market prediction 64.7%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 31.7% on actual outcome vs our 29.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 39.2% 43.3% +4.0%
Draw 31.7% 29.6% -2.1%
Away 29.1% 27.2% -1.9%
Model leans Home by 4.0% Max |Δ|: 4.0% Open Preview
Serie B
Fri, 6 Mar 2:06 PM
Bari 1908 2 – 1 Empoli
Our prediction 59.9%
Market prediction 64.8%

Market was closer to the result by 4.9% (market 31.7% on actual outcome vs our 27.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 31.7% 27.9% -3.8%
Draw 29.1% 25.6% -3.5%
Away 39.2% 46.5% +7.4%
Model leans Away by 7.4% Max |Δ|: 7.4% Open Preview
Serie B
Fri, 6 Mar 2:05 PM
Carrarese 3 – 3 Catanzaro
Our prediction 61.5%
Market prediction 64.0%

Market was closer to the result by 2.5% (market 30.9% on actual outcome vs our 28.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 39.0% 43.0% +4.0%
Draw 30.9% 28.8% -2.0%
Away 30.2% 28.2% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 4.0% Max |Δ|: 4.0% Open Preview
La Liga
Fri, 6 Mar 2:05 PM
Rayo Vallecano 3 – 0 Real Oviedo
Our prediction 87.8%
Market prediction 84.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.6% (assigned 59.9% on the actual outcome vs market 54.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 54.4% 59.9% +5.5%
Draw 26.7% 23.5% -3.2%
Away 18.9% 16.6% -2.3%
Model leans Home by 5.5% Max |Δ|: 5.5% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 6 Mar 11:00 AM
Oleksandria 0 – 1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Our prediction 96.5%
Market prediction 95.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.5% (assigned 78.9% on the actual outcome vs market 74.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 7.6% 6.3% -1.2%
Draw 17.7% 14.8% -2.9%
Away 74.8% 78.9% +4.2%
Model leans Away by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome