Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,487
Live now 3
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.5%
Our beats market 65%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.91 Average decimal odds (1.91) on our value pick across 2070 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1222 wins (59.0% hit rate).
Hit rate 59.0% 1222 of 2070 value picks won (59.0%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.69 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 59.0% = 1.69. Your average odds are 1.91. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.4% Flat bet ROI (3.4%) across 2070 finished value picks: 1222 wins, 848 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 59.0%, average odds 1.91. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 2,070 2070 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
Premier League
Sat, 7 Mar 1:30 PM
Obolon'-Brovar 0 – 0 Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Our prediction 57.2%
Market prediction 62.0%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 29.2% on actual outcome vs our 25.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 29.2% 25.7% -3.5%
Draw 29.2% 25.7% -3.5%
Away 41.6% 48.7% +7.1%
Model leans Away by 7.1% Max |Δ|: 7.1% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 12:30 PM
Blackburn Rovers 1 – 1 Portsmouth
Our prediction 61.5%
Market prediction 63.8%

Market was closer to the result by 2.3% (market 30.5% on actual outcome vs our 28.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.8% 40.0% +4.2%
Draw 30.5% 28.5% -2.0%
Away 33.7% 31.5% -2.2%
Model leans Home by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
FA Cup
Sat, 7 Mar 12:15 PM
Mansfield Town 1 – 2 Arsenal
Our prediction 99.5%
Market prediction 97.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.2% (assigned 92.1% on the actual outcome vs market 81.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 7.9% 3.3% -4.6%
Draw 11.0% 4.6% -6.4%
Away 81.1% 92.1% +11.0%
Model leans Away by 11.0% Max |Δ|: 11.0% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 7 Mar 11:00 AM
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4 – 0 Kolos Kovalivka
Our prediction 55.3%
Market prediction 60.0%

Market was closer to the result by 4.7% (market 27.4% on actual outcome vs our 24.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 27.4% 24.0% -3.3%
Draw 29.6% 26.0% -3.6%
Away 43.0% 49.9% +6.9%
Model leans Away by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview
Liga Portugal
Fri, 6 Mar 8:15 PM
Famalicão 1 – 0 Arouca
Our prediction 89.6%
Market prediction 86.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 62.9% on the actual outcome vs market 57.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 57.5% 62.9% +5.4%
Draw 24.8% 21.7% -3.1%
Away 17.7% 15.5% -2.2%
Model leans Home by 5.4% Max |Δ|: 5.4% Open Preview
La Liga
Fri, 6 Mar 8:00 PM
Celta de Vigo 1 – 2 Real Madrid
Our prediction 78.3%
Market prediction 72.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.4% (assigned 46.3% on the actual outcome vs market 38.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 32.8% 28.8% -4.0%
Draw 28.3% 24.9% -3.4%
Away 38.9% 46.3% +7.4%
Model leans Away by 7.4% Max |Δ|: 7.4% Open Preview
Championship
Fri, 6 Mar 8:00 PM
Preston North End 1 – 3 Oxford United
Our prediction 56.4%
Market prediction 61.2%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 28.6% on actual outcome vs our 25.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 43.1% 50.0% +6.9%
Draw 28.3% 24.9% -3.4%
Away 28.6% 25.1% -3.5%
Model leans Home by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview
FA Cup
Fri, 6 Mar 8:00 PM
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 – 3 Liverpool
Our prediction 91.2%
Market prediction 88.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.9% (assigned 65.8% on the actual outcome vs market 60.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 17.7% 15.4% -2.4%
Draw 21.8% 18.9% -2.9%
Away 60.5% 65.8% +5.3%
Model leans Away by 5.3% Max |Δ|: 5.3% Open Preview
Serie A
Fri, 6 Mar 7:45 PM
Napoli 2 – 1 Torino
Our prediction 91.1%
Market prediction 88.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.0% (assigned 65.8% on the actual outcome vs market 60.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 60.5% 65.8% +5.3%
Draw 24.1% 20.9% -3.2%
Away 15.4% 13.3% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 5.3% Max |Δ|: 5.3% Open Preview
Ligue 1
Fri, 6 Mar 7:45 PM
Paris Saint Germain 1 – 3 Monaco
Our prediction 33.3%
Market prediction 38.0%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 14.0% on actual outcome vs our 11.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 68.4% 73.1% +4.8%
Draw 17.7% 15.0% -2.7%
Away 14.0% 11.9% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 4.8% Max |Δ|: 4.8% Open Preview
Pro League
Fri, 6 Mar 7:45 PM
La Louvière 0 – 0 Antwerp
Our prediction 58.9%
Market prediction 61.6%

Market was closer to the result by 2.7% (market 29.4% on actual outcome vs our 27.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 45.4% 49.0% +3.6%
Draw 29.4% 27.5% -1.9%
Away 25.2% 23.5% -1.7%
Model leans Home by 3.6% Max |Δ|: 3.6% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Fri, 6 Mar 7:30 PM
FC Bayern München 4 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Our prediction 99.2%
Market prediction 96.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 89.8% on the actual outcome vs market 77.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 77.0% 89.8% +12.7%
Draw 12.8% 5.7% -7.1%
Away 10.2% 4.6% -5.7%
Model leans Home by 12.7% Max |Δ|: 12.7% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Fri, 6 Mar 7:30 PM
Cádiz 0 – 1 Real Zaragoza
Our prediction 56.6%
Market prediction 61.4%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 28.8% on actual outcome vs our 25.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 43.0% 49.9% +6.9%
Draw 28.3% 24.9% -3.4%
Away 28.7% 25.3% -3.5%
Model leans Home by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Fri, 6 Mar 7:30 PM
Lechia Gdańsk 3 – 0 Jagiellonia Białystok
Our prediction 76.3%
Market prediction 72.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.5% (assigned 44.0% on the actual outcome vs market 40.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 40.1% 44.0% +4.0%
Draw 25.7% 24.0% -1.7%
Away 34.2% 32.0% -2.3%
Model leans Home by 4.0% Max |Δ|: 4.0% Open Preview
Eredivisie
Fri, 6 Mar 7:00 PM
Heracles Almelo 0 – 0 FC Utrecht
Our prediction 54.6%
Market prediction 59.2%

Market was closer to the result by 4.6% (market 26.6% on actual outcome vs our 23.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 30.3% 26.6% -3.7%
Draw 26.6% 23.4% -3.2%
Away 43.1% 49.9% +6.9%
Model leans Away by 6.9% Max |Δ|: 6.9% Open Preview
1. HNL
Fri, 6 Mar 5:00 PM
Istra 1961 0 – 1 Osijek
Our prediction 72.3%
Market prediction 68.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 4.1% (assigned 39.2% on the actual outcome vs market 35.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 34.1% 31.8% -2.2%
Draw 31.0% 28.9% -2.0%
Away 35.0% 39.2% +4.3%
Model leans Away by 4.3% Max |Δ|: 4.3% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:12 PM
Tottenham Hotspur 1 – 3 Crystal Palace
Our prediction 63.6%
Market prediction 66.2%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 33.2% on actual outcome vs our 31.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 38.6% 42.6% +4.1%
Draw 28.3% 26.4% -1.9%
Away 33.2% 31.0% -2.2%
Model leans Home by 4.1% Max |Δ|: 4.1% Open Preview
Super League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:11 PM
Basel 1 – 0 Grasshopper
Our prediction 87.8%
Market prediction 84.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.6% (assigned 59.8% on the actual outcome vs market 54.3%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 54.3% 59.8% +5.5%
Draw 25.0% 21.9% -3.0%
Away 20.8% 18.3% -2.5%
Model leans Home by 5.5% Max |Δ|: 5.5% Open Preview
Super League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:11 PM
Thun 2 – 2 St. Gallen
Our prediction 50.5%
Market prediction 55.1%

Market was closer to the result by 4.6% (market 23.8% on actual outcome vs our 20.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 49.4% 55.5% +6.1%
Draw 23.8% 20.9% -2.9%
Away 26.8% 23.6% -3.2%
Model leans Home by 6.1% Max |Δ|: 6.1% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Fri, 6 Mar 2:11 PM
Radomiak Radom 3 – 1 Arka Gdynia
Our prediction 87.7%
Market prediction 84.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.6% (assigned 59.6% on the actual outcome vs market 54.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 54.0% 59.6% +5.6%
Draw 25.2% 22.2% -3.1%
Away 20.8% 18.2% -2.5%
Model leans Home by 5.6% Max |Δ|: 5.6% Open Preview
Premier League
Fri, 6 Mar 2:10 PM
Newcastle United 2 – 1 Manchester United
Our prediction 73.7%
Market prediction 69.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.8% (assigned 41.1% on the actual outcome vs market 36.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.9% 41.1% +4.2%
Draw 26.2% 24.5% -1.7%
Away 36.9% 34.5% -2.4%
Model leans Home by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
Copa Del Rey
Fri, 6 Mar 2:10 PM
Real Sociedad 1 – 0 Athletic Club
Our prediction 78.9%
Market prediction 72.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 6.2% (assigned 47.0% on the actual outcome vs market 39.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 39.7% 47.0% +7.3%
Draw 28.4% 24.9% -3.4%
Away 32.0% 28.1% -3.9%
Model leans Home by 7.3% Max |Δ|: 7.3% Open Preview
Coppa Italia
Fri, 6 Mar 2:10 PM
Lazio 2 – 2 Atalanta
Our prediction 59.6%
Market prediction 64.2%

Market was closer to the result by 4.6% (market 31.0% on actual outcome vs our 27.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 31.9% 28.0% -3.9%
Draw 31.0% 27.2% -3.7%
Away 37.2% 44.8% +7.6%
Model leans Away by 7.6% Max |Δ|: 7.6% Open Preview
Premiership
Fri, 6 Mar 2:09 PM
Aberdeen 1 – 2 Celtic
Our prediction 89.9%
Market prediction 86.8%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.2% (assigned 63.4% on the actual outcome vs market 58.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 18.9% 16.5% -2.4%
Draw 23.1% 20.1% -2.9%
Away 58.0% 63.4% +5.4%
Model leans Away by 5.4% Max |Δ|: 5.4% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome