Stand Out Games

Structural deviation compares our blended odds view (market + statistical explorer features) against market probabilities. Only games with max |Δ| of 0.5% or higher are shown.

Total games 2,485
Live now 2
Avg Max |Δ| 4.5%
Biggest |Δ| 13.5%
Avg our quality 77.5%
Our beats market 65%

Value pick performance (finished games)

Avg odds (our pick) 1.91 Average decimal odds (1.91) on our value pick across 2070 finished games. Pick = side with the largest positive edge vs market (min 1.5%). Odds = 100 ÷ market % on that side from the latest blended sync. Based on 1222 wins (59.0% hit rate).
Hit rate 59.0% 1222 of 2070 value picks won (59.0%). A pick wins when the actual result matches the picked outcome (home, draw, or away). Only finished games with edge ≥ min threshold count.
Break-even odds 1.69 Decimal odds needed at this hit rate for 1-unit flat stakes to break even: 100 ÷ 59.0% = 1.69. Your average odds are 1.91. Your average odds are above break-even at this hit rate.
Flat bet ROI 3.4% Flat bet ROI (3.4%) across 2070 finished value picks: 1222 wins, 848 losses. Each pick stakes 1 unit — wins return (decimal odds − 1), losses cost 1 unit. Hit rate 59.0%, average odds 1.91. Positive ROI means net profit over the sample at 1-unit flat stakes.
Value picks 2,070 2070 finished stand-out games with a value pick — largest positive Δ ≥ 1.5% on one outcome. One pick per game.
La Liga 2
Sat, 7 Mar 3:15 PM
Real Sociedad II 4 – 2 Castellón
Our prediction 49.7%
Market prediction 54.4%

Market was closer to the result by 4.7% (market 23.5% on actual outcome vs our 20.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 23.5% 20.7% -2.8%
Draw 25.1% 22.1% -3.0%
Away 51.4% 57.3% +5.9%
Model leans Away by 5.9% Max |Δ|: 5.9% Open Preview
La Liga
Sat, 7 Mar 3:15 PM
Levante 1 – 1 Girona
Our prediction 59.0%
Market prediction 61.2%

Market was closer to the result by 2.2% (market 28.1% on actual outcome vs our 26.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.1% 32.8% -2.3%
Draw 28.1% 26.2% -1.9%
Away 36.8% 41.0% +4.2%
Model leans Away by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
La Liga 2
Sat, 7 Mar 3:15 PM
Huesca 0 – 0 Albacete
Our prediction 63.4%
Market prediction 65.9%

Market was closer to the result by 2.5% (market 32.7% on actual outcome vs our 30.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.9% 41.0% +4.2%
Draw 32.7% 30.6% -2.2%
Away 30.4% 28.4% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Bristol City 0 – 2 Coventry City
Our prediction 83.5%
Market prediction 78.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 4.8% (assigned 53.1% on the actual outcome vs market 46.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 27.4% 24.1% -3.3%
Draw 25.9% 22.8% -3.1%
Away 46.7% 53.1% +6.4%
Model leans Away by 6.4% Max |Δ|: 6.4% Open Preview
Premiership
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Dundee 2 – 1 Motherwell
Our prediction 49.0%
Market prediction 53.7%

Market was closer to the result by 4.6% (market 22.9% on actual outcome vs our 20.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 22.9% 20.1% -2.8%
Draw 25.5% 22.4% -3.1%
Away 51.6% 57.5% +5.9%
Model leans Away by 5.9% Max |Δ|: 5.9% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Sheffield United 1 – 1 West Bromwich Albion
Our prediction 49.3%
Market prediction 54.4%

Market was closer to the result by 5.1% (market 25.0% on actual outcome vs our 21.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 55.9% 61.3% +5.4%
Draw 25.0% 21.9% -3.1%
Away 19.1% 16.8% -2.4%
Model leans Home by 5.4% Max |Δ|: 5.4% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Derby County 2 – 1 Sheffield Wednesday
Our prediction 96.3%
Market prediction 94.7%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.6% (assigned 78.3% on the actual outcome vs market 74.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 74.1% 78.3% +4.2%
Draw 17.9% 15.0% -2.9%
Away 8.0% 6.7% -1.3%
Model leans Home by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview
Pro League
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
OH Leuven 0 – 1 Westerlo
Our prediction 61.8%
Market prediction 64.4%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 31.6% on actual outcome vs our 29.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 41.1% 44.9% +3.9%
Draw 27.4% 25.6% -1.8%
Away 31.6% 29.5% -2.1%
Model leans Home by 3.9% Max |Δ|: 3.9% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Charlton Athletic 1 – 0 Birmingham City
Our prediction 53.8%
Market prediction 56.2%

Market was closer to the result by 2.4% (market 24.4% on actual outcome vs our 22.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 24.4% 22.8% -1.6%
Draw 28.1% 26.2% -1.9%
Away 47.5% 51.0% +3.5%
Model leans Away by 3.5% Max |Δ|: 3.5% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Swansea City 2 – 0 Stoke City
Our prediction 83.5%
Market prediction 81.0%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.4% (assigned 53.1% on the actual outcome vs market 49.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 49.8% 53.1% +3.3%
Draw 27.4% 25.6% -1.8%
Away 22.8% 21.3% -1.5%
Model leans Home by 3.3% Max |Δ|: 3.3% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Ipswich Town 1 – 1 Leicester City
Our prediction 46.8%
Market prediction 49.7%

Market was closer to the result by 2.9% (market 22.2% on actual outcome vs our 20.6%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 61.1% 64.0% +2.9%
Draw 22.2% 20.6% -1.6%
Away 16.6% 15.4% -1.2%
Model leans Home by 2.9% Max |Δ|: 2.9% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
VfL Wolfsburg 1 – 2 Hamburger SV
Our prediction 63.3%
Market prediction 68.3%

Market was closer to the result by 5.0% (market 35.2% on actual outcome vs our 30.9%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 36.5% 44.2% +7.7%
Draw 28.3% 24.9% -3.4%
Away 35.2% 30.9% -4.3%
Model leans Home by 7.7% Max |Δ|: 7.7% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
SC Freiburg 3 – 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Our prediction 55.5%
Market prediction 59.9%

Market was closer to the result by 4.4% (market 27.1% on actual outcome vs our 23.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 32.5% 28.6% -3.9%
Draw 27.1% 23.8% -3.3%
Away 40.4% 47.6% +7.2%
Model leans Away by 7.2% Max |Δ|: 7.2% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
FSV Mainz 05 2 – 2 VfB Stuttgart
Our prediction 51.5%
Market prediction 56.2%

Market was closer to the result by 4.7% (market 24.7% on actual outcome vs our 21.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 26.6% 23.4% -3.2%
Draw 24.7% 21.7% -3.0%
Away 48.7% 54.9% +6.2%
Model leans Away by 6.2% Max |Δ|: 6.2% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
FC Heidenheim 2 – 4 TSG Hoffenheim
Our prediction 92.0%
Market prediction 89.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.7% (assigned 67.4% on the actual outcome vs market 62.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 17.2% 14.9% -2.4%
Draw 20.6% 17.7% -2.8%
Away 62.2% 67.4% +5.2%
Model leans Away by 5.2% Max |Δ|: 5.2% Open Preview
Bundesliga
Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
RB Leipzig 2 – 1 FC Augsburg
Our prediction 95.2%
Market prediction 93.3%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.9% (assigned 74.7% on the actual outcome vs market 70.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 70.1% 74.7% +4.6%
Draw 17.1% 14.5% -2.6%
Away 12.8% 10.8% -2.0%
Model leans Home by 4.6% Max |Δ|: 4.6% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Spezia 4 – 2 Monza
Our prediction 54.0%
Market prediction 58.8%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 26.6% on actual outcome vs our 23.4%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 26.6% 23.4% -3.2%
Draw 27.4% 24.1% -3.3%
Away 46.0% 52.5% +6.5%
Model leans Away by 6.5% Max |Δ|: 6.5% Open Preview
1. HNL
Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Gorica 2 – 2 Slaven Koprivnica
Our prediction 60.3%
Market prediction 62.9%

Market was closer to the result by 2.6% (market 30.2% on actual outcome vs our 28.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 42.4% 46.2% +3.8%
Draw 30.2% 28.2% -2.0%
Away 27.4% 25.5% -1.8%
Model leans Home by 3.8% Max |Δ|: 3.8% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Avellino 1 – 0 Calcio Padova
Our prediction 79.9%
Market prediction 76.9%

Our model was closer to the result by 2.9% (assigned 48.4% on the actual outcome vs market 44.8%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 44.8% 48.4% +3.6%
Draw 32.2% 30.1% -2.1%
Away 23.0% 21.5% -1.5%
Model leans Home by 3.6% Max |Δ|: 3.6% Open Preview
Serie B
Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Südtirol 0 – 1 Virtus Entella
Our prediction 44.9%
Market prediction 47.0%

Market was closer to the result by 2.1% (market 17.1% on actual outcome vs our 16.0%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 53.8% 56.9% +3.0%
Draw 29.0% 27.1% -1.9%
Away 17.1% 16.0% -1.1%
Model leans Home by 3.0% Max |Δ|: 3.0% Open Preview
Serie A
Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Cagliari 1 – 2 Como
Our prediction 90.7%
Market prediction 89.1%

Our model was closer to the result by 1.6% (assigned 65.0% on the actual outcome vs market 62.2%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 14.6% 13.5% -1.1%
Draw 23.2% 21.5% -1.7%
Away 62.2% 65.0% +2.8%
Model leans Away by 2.8% Max |Δ|: 2.8% Open Preview
Ekstraklasa
Sat, 7 Mar 1:45 PM
Korona Kielce 2 – 1 Nieciecza
Our prediction 89.6%
Market prediction 86.2%

Our model was closer to the result by 3.4% (assigned 62.8% on the actual outcome vs market 57.1%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 57.1% 62.8% +5.7%
Draw 22.9% 19.9% -3.0%
Away 20.0% 17.3% -2.6%
Model leans Home by 5.7% Max |Δ|: 5.7% Open Preview
Premier League
Sat, 7 Mar 1:30 PM
Obolon'-Brovar 0 – 0 Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Our prediction 57.2%
Market prediction 62.0%

Market was closer to the result by 4.8% (market 29.2% on actual outcome vs our 25.7%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 29.2% 25.7% -3.5%
Draw 29.2% 25.7% -3.5%
Away 41.6% 48.7% +7.1%
Model leans Away by 7.1% Max |Δ|: 7.1% Open Preview
Championship
Sat, 7 Mar 12:30 PM
Blackburn Rovers 1 – 1 Portsmouth
Our prediction 61.5%
Market prediction 63.8%

Market was closer to the result by 2.3% (market 30.5% on actual outcome vs our 28.5%).

OutcomeMarketOurΔ
Home 35.8% 40.0% +4.2%
Draw 30.5% 28.5% -2.0%
Away 33.7% 31.5% -2.2%
Model leans Home by 4.2% Max |Δ|: 4.2% Open Preview

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Live Profit Progression

Cumulative flat-stake performance across finished value picks.

Full History Log

Date Match Selection Odds Outcome