St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Yesterday - 2:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
Kilmarnock KIL
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 2:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

St. Mirren welcome Kilmarnock to The Smisa Stadium for a Premiership 2nd Phase encounter in the 2025/2026 season. The hosts occupy 10th position, one point ahead of their 11th-placed visitors in a tightly contested mid-table battle. Kilmarnock edge the power ratings with 58 against St. Mirren's 56.85, translating to a 1.2-point advantage that underscores their marginal superiority. Form tells a clearer story, as Kilmarnock's 23.28 score significantly outpaces St. Mirren's 13.28, suggesting momentum favors the away side. No recent outings are recorded for either team, leaving recent performances shrouded. Advanced metrics are sparse: efficiency data is absent, and set piece analysis carries low confidence with proxies used due to unavailable xG. St. Mirren will lean on home advantage, while Kilmarnock aim to capitalize on better underlying form in this pivotal fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Kilmarnock hold a slight structural edge with a power score of 58 versus St. Mirren's 56.85.
  • Form: Kilmarnock's form score of 23.28 surpasses St. Mirren's 13.28.
  • Squad: St. Mirren sit 10th in the league, one place above Kilmarnock in 11th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data is available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable with low confidence and proxies used.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable for set pieces on both sides.
  • Market: Baseline split: St. Mirren 47.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.6% (Δ+0%) | Kilmarnock 25.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.88
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Falkirk Rank: 66 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 64 W
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Hibernian Rank: 68 L
Livingston Rank: 55 W
Hearts Rank: 75 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 16 - 26
26
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
47.78%
Draw
26.57%
Away Kilmarnock
25.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.85
58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Kilmarnock
Power Score
56.85
58
League Position
10
11
Global Rank
590
558

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Kilmarnock

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
56 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
14
Wins
26
16
Draws
16
26
Losses
14
Goals
59
Goals Scored
68
68
Goals Conceded
59
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:07:11+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
G. Tamosevicius
35 G. Tamosevicius
J. Richardson
2 J. Richardson
R. King
5 R. King
M. Freckleton
21 M. Freckleton
S. Tanser
3 S. Tanser
J. Devaney
8 J. Devaney
M. O'Hara
6 M. O'Hara
A. Campbell
16 A. Campbell
K. Phillips
88 K. Phillips
M. Mandron
9 M. Mandron
R. Idowu
7 R. Idowu
M. Stryjek
1 M. Stryjek
M. Schjonning-Larsen
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
R. Deas
6 R. Deas
G. Stanger
14 G. Stanger
F. Curtis
52 F. Curtis
A. Tshibola
36 A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
18 T. Lowery
G. Kiltie
11 G. Kiltie
N. Serghei Clescenco
20 N. Serghei Clescenco
B. Anderson
19 B. Anderson
J. Hugill
44 J. Hugill

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity
8016
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Don Robertson
Calum Spence
Chris Rae
Lloyd Wilson

Expected Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

35
Grant Tamosevicius
Grant Tamosevicius Goalkeeper
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
6.9
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu Attacker
6.56
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson Right Back
6.56
5
Richard King
Richard King Right Back
6.65
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Left Back
7.02
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Left Back
6.81
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Central Midfield
6.87
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Central Midfield
6.82
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Central Midfield
6.73
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacking Midfield
6.85
Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
7.16
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
6.94
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Centre Forward
6.6
20
Nicky Clescenco
Nicky Clescenco Attacker
6.5
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Central Midfield
6.93
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Central Midfield
6.79
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Right Back
6.68
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Right Back
6.62
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Left Back
6.77
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Left Back
6.61
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Central Midfield
6.52

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Kilmarnock holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Kilmarnock a 1.2-point edge. External projection is St. Mirren 47.8%, draw 26.6%, and Kilmarnock 25.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.