Country 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM
Serie B
Spezia SPE
VS
Mantova MAN
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Spezia host Mantova in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Alberto Picco. Domestically, Spezia sit 19th in the table while Mantova are 12th. Power ranking favours Mantova by 1.7 points heading into this fixture. Spezia's recent form reads W1 D2 L3 from 6 matches; Mantova's form is W3 D1 L2 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Spezia Loss away against Carrarese. Mantova last played at home versus Virtus Entella, finishing with a Win.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Mantova hold a +1.7 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Mantova sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Spezia show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Mantova have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Mantova carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Mantova hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Spezia 41.5% | Draw 28.7% | Mantova 29.8%
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
VS
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: 55 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 L
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Modena Rank: 57 L
Monza Rank: 65 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
Modena Rank: 58 L
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 W
Palermo Rank: 64 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spezia
41.47%
Draw
28.68%
Away Mantova
29.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.4
52.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Mantova
Power Score
50.4
52.08
League Position
19
12
Global Rank
734
687

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Mantova

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home
7 matches
Mantova MAN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
0
Goals
6
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
6
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:04:31+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
B. Radunović
22 B. Radunović
A. Matějů
37 A. Matějů
P. Hristov
55 P. Hristov
A. Bertoncini
24 A. Bertoncini
L. Vignali
32 L. Vignali
L. Sernicola
17 L. Sernicola
A. Romano
60 A. Romano
F. Bandinelli
25 F. Bandinelli
G. Aurelio
31 G. Aurelio
G. Lapadula
10 G. Lapadula
G. Artistico
9 G. Artistico
F. Bardi
24 F. Bardi
T. Maggioni
96 T. Maggioni
S. Cella
29 S. Cella
A. Dembélé
3 A. Dembélé
F. Benaissa-Yahia
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
D. Wieser
10 D. Wieser
S. Trimboli
21 S. Trimboli
T. Marras
23 T. Marras
N. Buso
77 N. Buso
D. Bragantini
30 D. Bragantini
L. Mancuso
9 L. Mancuso

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity
10336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

22
Boris Radunović
Boris Radunović Goalkeeper
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali Midfielder
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico Centre Forward
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Right Back
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov Centre Back
24
Andrea Bertoncini
Andrea Bertoncini Left Back
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Central Midfield
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Central Midfield
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli Central Midfield
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula Attacking Midfield

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras Midfielder
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
30
Davide Bragantini
Davide Bragantini Midfielder
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso Midfielder
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Centre Forward
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Right Back
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Centre Back
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Left Back
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Central Midfield
10
David Wieser
David Wieser Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Mantova carries the stronger pre-match profile into this fixture, holding a calculated power advantage of 1.7 points over Spezia. Despite the visitors holding this structural edge, the market designates Spezia as the clear favorite with a 41.4 percent probability, compared to 30.1 percent for Mantova. Consequently, the market and structural signals strictly diverge for this contest. Given this analytical mismatch, operational discipline on the pitch will prove decisive. Success will ultimately depend on which side can effectively dictate the central tempo and minimize unforced errors during defensive transitions.