RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Red Bull Arena Yesterday - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig RBL
St. Pauli PAU
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 1:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

RB Leipzig host St. Pauli in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Red Bull Arena. Domestically, RB Leipzig sit 3th in the table while St. Pauli are 17th. Power ranking favours RB Leipzig by 15.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: RB Leipzig hold a 15.3-point power advantage with a score of 87.06 over St. Pauli's 71.8, and lead league positions 3rd to 17th.
  • Form: RB Leipzig's form score of 34.83 towers over St. Pauli's 3.72.
  • Squad: Squad details for both teams are unavailable in current previews.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are not available for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is unavailable for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies with no xG data for either team.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: RB Leipzig 72.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 17.4% (Δ+0%) | St. Pauli 9.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
VS
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
Heidenheim Rank: 70 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home RB Leipzig
72.7%
Draw
17.44%
Away St. Pauli
9.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.06
71.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
Power Score
87.06
71.8
League Position
3
17
Global Rank
25
166

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) RB Leipzig St. Pauli

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

RB Leipzig RBL Home
3 matches
St. Pauli PAU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:06:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Vandevoordt
Belgium
26 M. Vandevoordt
R. Baku
Germany
17 R. Baku
W. Orban
Hungary
4 W. Orban
E. Bitshiabu
France
5 E. Bitshiabu
M. Finkgräfe
Germany
35 M. Finkgräfe
X. Schlager
Austria
24 X. Schlager
N. Seiwald
Austria
13 N. Seiwald
C. Baumgartner
Austria
14 C. Baumgartner
Y. Diomande
49 Y. Diomande
R. Cardoso da Cruz
Brazil
40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
A. Nordby Nusa
Norway
7 A. Nordby Nusa
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
K. Mets
Estonia
3 K. Mets
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
L. Oppie
Germany
23 L. Oppie
E. Smith
Sweden
8 E. Smith
J. Irvine
Australia
7 J. Irvine
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
J. Fujita
Japan
16 J. Fujita
D. Sinani
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
A. Hountondji
France
27 A. Hountondji

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Capacity
47069
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Stein
Marco Achmüller
Eric-dominic Weisbach
Benjamin Brand

Lineup

Referee : Benjamin Brand

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Vandevoordt
Maarten Vandevoordt Goalkeeper
6.79
4
Willi Orbán
Willi Orbán Defender
7.16
5
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
El Chadaille Bitshiabu Defender
6.94
17
Ridle Baku
Ridle Baku Defender
6.95
35
Max Finkgräfe
Max Finkgräfe Defender
7.04
13
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder
6.96
14
Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner Midfielder
7.18
24
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager Midfielder
6.82
7
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa Attacker
7.07
40
Rômulo
Rômulo Attacker
6.97
49
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Attacker
7.34
Referee : Benjamin Brand

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.82
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
6.64
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
6.81
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Defender
6.65
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.72
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie Defender
6.61
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
6.78
8
Eric Smith
Eric Smith Midfielder
6.87
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Midfielder
7.02
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.81
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
6.51

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward RB Leipzig holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give RB Leipzig a 15.3-point edge. External projection is RB Leipzig 72.6%, draw 17.5%, and St. Pauli 9.9%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.