Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool preview

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Parc des Princes Wed, 8 Apr - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Paris Saint Germain PSG
Liverpool LIV
KICKOFF : Wed, 8 Apr - 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Paris Saint Germain will host Liverpool at the Parc des Princes for this Champions League quarter-finals matchup. In the current competition standings, Paris Saint Germain hold the 11th position, while Liverpool sit higher in the 3rd position. For the home side, their season form reads W3 D2 L1 from 6 matches. In their most recent fixture, Paris Saint Germain recorded a positive result, securing a win away against Chelsea. Meanwhile, the visitors' season form reads W4 D0 L2 from 6 matches. Liverpool also enter this contest following a successful outing, having registered a win at home against Galatasaray in their previous match. As this is Leg 1 of 2 in the knockout phase, the aggregate score entering this match stands at 0 - 0. Both teams will aim to establish an early advantage before they meet again in the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Paris Saint Germain hold a +1 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Liverpool sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Paris Saint Germain show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Paris Saint Germain have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Paris Saint Germain carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Paris Saint Germain hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Paris Saint Germain 53.9% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 22.9% (Δ-0.5%) | Liverpool 23.2% (Δ+0.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.25
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: 92 W
Chelsea Rank: 90 W
Monaco Rank: 81 D
Monaco Rank: 81 W
Newcastle United Rank: 89 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: 89 W
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
Qarabağ Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 W
Inter Rank: 90 W
PSV Rank: 85 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
53.94%
Draw
22.89%
Away Liverpool
23.17%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paris Saint Germain
-0.06%
Draw
-0.46%
Liverpool
+0.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
93.46
92.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
Power Score
93.46
92.46
League Position
11
3
Global Rank
5
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Liverpool

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
4 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:02:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Safonov
Russia
39 M. Safonov
A. Hakimi Mouh
Morocco
2 A. Hakimi Mouh
M. Aoás Corrêa
Brazil
5 M. Aoás Corrêa
W. Pacho Tenorio
Ecuador
51 W. Pacho Tenorio
N. Mendes
Portugal
25 N. Mendes
W. Zaire Emery
France
33 W. Zaire Emery
V. Machado Ferreira
Portugal
17 V. Machado Ferreira
J. Gonçalves Neves
Portugal
87 J. Gonçalves Neves
D. Doue
France
14 D. Doue
O. Dembélé
France
10 O. Dembélé
K. Kvaratskhelia
Georgia
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
G. Mamardashvili
Georgia
25 G. Mamardashvili
Milos Kerkez
Hungary
6 Milos Kerkez
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 V. van Dijk
I. Konaté
France
5 I. Konaté
J. Frimpong
Netherlands
30 J. Frimpong
A. Mac Allister
Argentina
10 A. Mac Allister
R. Gravenberch
Netherlands
38 R. Gravenberch
F. Wirtz
Germany
7 F. Wirtz
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
H. Ekitike
France
22 H. Ekitike
M. Salah
Egypt
11 M. Salah

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 08, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Parc des Princes
Capacity
48583
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
José María Sánchez Martínez
Raúl Cabañero Martínez
Iñigo Prieto López de Ceraín
Juan Martínez Munuera

Lineup

Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
2
Achraf Hakimi
Achraf Hakimi Defender
5
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Defender
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
51
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho Defender
17
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Warren Zaïre-Emery Midfielder
87
João Neves
João Neves Midfielder
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Attacker
Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
6
Milos Kerkez
Milos Kerkez Defender
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Defender
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Attacker
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Attacker
11
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah Attacker
22
Hugo Ekitiké
Hugo Ekitiké Attacker

CONCLUSION

Paris Saint Germain enter this Champions League tie with the stronger pre-match profile, holding a power advantage of 1 point over Liverpool. The structural metrics align with the market expectations, as Paris Saint Germain lead the projections with a 55.2 percent probability of securing a home victory. Meanwhile, Liverpool hold a 22.1 percent probability of an away win, with a draw evaluated at 22.7 percent. Both clubs won their last respective matches, establishing a balanced foundation for this first leg. The final result will depend on which defensive shape effectively neutralizes rapid transition play and controls central spaces.