Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa preview

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
The City Ground Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Nottingham Forest NFO
Aston Villa AVL
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Nottingham Forest welcome Aston Villa to The City Ground for the first leg of the Europa League semi-finals in the 2025/2026 season. This knockout tie starts level at 0-0 aggregate, setting up a high-stakes encounter where home advantage could prove pivotal for Forest. Aston Villa enter as the stronger team with a power score of 37.29 edging Forest's 34.87 by 2.4 points, signaling a slight structural superiority. Form metrics reinforce Villa's edge, boasting 50.06 against Forest's 37.28, suggesting better momentum heading into this clash. Without recent outing details, attention turns to overall capabilities in this international cup stage. Forest's home crowd may fuel resilience, but Villa's higher ratings point to composure under pressure. Set piece and efficiency data remain unavailable due to missing xG insights, keeping analysis focused on power and form disparities. Expect a tactical battle with transitions key in open play.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aston Villa holds a 2.4-point power advantage over Nottingham Forest.
  • Form: Aston Villa's form score of 50.06 surpasses Nottingham Forest's 37.28.
  • Squad: No specific squad composition details available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided in available metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG statistics not available for attack or defense on set pieces.
  • Market: Nottingham Forest 37.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.5% (Δ+0%) | Aston Villa 33.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
VS
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: W
Porto Rank: D
FC Midtjylland Rank: W
FC Midtjylland Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: W
Bologna Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nottingham Forest
37.34%
Draw
29.46%
Away Aston Villa
33.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.87
37.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Power Score
34.87
37.29
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Aston Villa

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
14 matches
Aston Villa AVL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
3
Goals
21
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
21
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:04:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
S. Ortega Moreno
27 S. Ortega Moreno
T. Olaoluwa Aina
34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
J. da Cunha Filho
23 J. da Cunha Filho
F. Rodrigues
4 F. Rodrigues
N. Williams
3 N. Williams
I. Sangaré
6 I. Sangaré
N. Domínguez
16 N. Domínguez
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
M. Gibbs-White
10 M. Gibbs-White
D. Ndoye
14 D. Ndoye
C. Wood
11 C. Wood
D. Martínez
23 D. Martínez
L. Digne
12 L. Digne
P. Francisco Torres
14 P. Francisco Torres
E. Konsa Ngoyo
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
M. Cash
2 M. Cash
Y. Tielemans
8 Y. Tielemans
A. Mvom Onana
24 A. Mvom Onana
E. Buendía
10 E. Buendía
M. Rogers
27 M. Rogers
J. McGinn
7 J. McGinn
O. Watkins
11 O. Watkins

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 30, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
The City Ground
Capacity
30445
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

27
Stefan Ortega
Stefan Ortega Goalkeeper
6.82
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Centre Forward
6.76
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Right Wing
7.04
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Attacking Midfield
6.96
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Defensive Midfield
6.89
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Defensive Midfield
7.01
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Right Back
6.89
4
Morato
Morato Left Back
6.9
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Left Back
7.01
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha Right Back
6.68
14
Dan Ndoye
Dan Ndoye Left Wing
6.79

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
7.03
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Centre Forward
6.83
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Right Back
6.69
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Left Back
6.82
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Defensive Midfield
7.15
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Defensive Midfield
7.29
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Left Wing
6.94
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Right Wing
6.92
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Attacking Midfield
7.02
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Right Back
7.11
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Left Back
6.84

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Aston Villa holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Aston Villa a 2.4-point edge. External projection is Nottingham Forest 37.4%, draw 29.3%, and Aston Villa 33.3%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.