Norwich City vs Swansea City preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Carrow Road Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Norwich City NOR
Swansea City SWA
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Norwich City host Swansea City in Championship (Regular Season) at Carrow Road. Domestically, Norwich City sit 9th in the table while Swansea City are 11th. Power ranking favours Norwich City by 12 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Norwich City possesses a 12-point power advantage over Swansea City, with scores of 35.21 to 23.22.
  • Form: Norwich City's form score stands at 34.17, well ahead of Swansea City's 18.28.
  • Squad: Norwich City occupies 9th place in the Championship, one spot above 11th-placed Swansea City.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both Norwich City and Swansea City.
  • Transition: Norwich City's superior power rating suggests stronger transition play compared to Swansea City.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable for both teams due to absent xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG data not available for analysis of either team's underlying performance.
  • Market: Norwich City 55.7% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 24.3% (Δ+0%) | Swansea City 20% (Δ-0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
VS
Swansea City V. Emanuel Soares Matos
V. Emanuel Soares Matos
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derby County Rank: W
Bristol City Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Millwall Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: D
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Queens Park Rangers Rank: W
Southampton Rank: L
Leicester City Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: D
Coventry City Rank: L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 3 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Norwich City
55.69%
Draw
24.29%
Away Swansea City
20.02%

Movement

Changes since opening
Norwich City
+0.06%
Draw
+0.03%
Swansea City
-0.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.21
23.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Norwich City
Swansea City
Power Score
35.21
23.22
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Norwich City — Opponent-weighted form score
Swansea City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Norwich City Swansea City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Norwich City NOR Home
23 matches
Swansea City SWA Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
3
Draws
3
10
Losses
10
Goals
35
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
35
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:05:40+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Kovačević
1 V. Kovačević
J. Stacey
3 J. Stacey
H. Darling
6 H. Darling
J. Cordoba Chambers
33 J. Cordoba Chambers
K. Fisher
35 K. Fisher
P. Mattsson
7 P. Mattsson
K. McLean
23 K. McLean
F. Amankwah
18 F. Amankwah
E. Maghoma
25 E. Maghoma
L. Gibbs
8 L. Gibbs
M. Toure
37 M. Toure
L. Vigouroux
22 L. Vigouroux
J. Tymon
14 J. Tymon
C. Burgess
15 C. Burgess
B. Cabango
5 B. Cabango
S. Parker
41 S. Parker
J. Fulton
4 J. Fulton
M. Stamenic
6 M. Stamenic
M. Widell
7 M. Widell
J. Eom
10 J. Eom
R. Pereira Martins
35 R. Pereira Martins
Ž. Vipotnik
9 Ž. Vipotnik

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium
Carrow Road
Capacity
27244
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Parsons
David Harrison
Matt McGrath
Ben Toner

Expected Lineup

Referee : Thomas Parsons

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Kovačević
Vladan Kovačević Goalkeeper
6.86
37
Mohamed Touré
Mohamed Touré Centre Forward
7.33
3
Jack Stacey
Jack Stacey Right Back
6.69
6
Harry Darling
Harry Darling Right Back
6.88
7
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson Defensive Midfield
6.9
8
Liam Gibbs
Liam Gibbs Left Wing
6.76
18
Amankwah Forson
Amankwah Forson Right Wing
6.61
23
Kenny McLean
Kenny McLean Defensive Midfield
7.07
25
Paris Maghoma
Paris Maghoma Attacking Midfield
7.09
33
José Córdoba
José Córdoba Left Back
6.88
35
Kellen Fisher
Kellen Fisher Left Back
6.76
Referee : Thomas Parsons

Starting XI ▼

22
Lawrence Vigouroux
Lawrence Vigouroux Goalkeeper
6.97
9
Zan Vipotnik
Zan Vipotnik Centre Forward
7.04
4
Jay Fulton
Jay Fulton Defensive Midfield
6.66
5
Ben Cabango
Ben Cabango Right Back
6.9
7
Melker Widell
Melker Widell Left Wing
6.64
14
Josh Tymon
Josh Tymon Left Back
6.97
15
Cameron Burgess
Cameron Burgess Left Back
6.96
35
Ronald
Ronald Right Wing
6.78
41
Sam Parker
Sam Parker Right Back
6.73
6
Marko Stamenić
Marko Stamenić Defensive Midfield
6.8
10
Ji-sung Eom
Ji-sung Eom Attacking Midfield
6.86

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Norwich City holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Norwich City a 12-point edge. External projection is Norwich City 56.2%, draw 23.8%, and Swansea City 20%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.