Nice vs Le Havre preview

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Allianz Riviera Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Nice NCE
Le Havre LEH
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nice hosts Le Havre at the Allianz Riviera for a Regular Season fixture in Ligue 1. Both teams are positioned closely in the bottom half of the table as they look to improve their current trajectories. The home side enters the match occupying 15th place in the league standings, while the visitors sit just ahead of them in 14th position. For the hosts, their season form reads W1 D1 L4 from 6 matches. In comparison, Le Havre has also faced difficulties, and their season form reads W0 D2 L4 from 6 matches. Looking at recent performances, Nice is coming off a Loss in an away game against Strasbourg. Conversely, Le Havre registered a Draw in their last outing, which took place at home against Auxerre.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Nice hold a +3.3 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Nice sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Nice show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Nice have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Nice carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Nice hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Nice 49.2% | Draw 27.3% | Le Havre 23.6%
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
VS
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: 80 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 93 L
Angers SCO Rank: 68 W
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Paris Rank: 69 L
Lorient Rank: 73 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Auxerre Rank: 69 D
Paris Rank: 68 L
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 82 D
Brest Rank: 73 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 93 L
Nantes Rank: 64 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nice
49.21%
Draw
27.25%
Away Le Havre
23.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.38
66.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nice
Le Havre
Power Score
69.38
66.11
League Position
15
14
Global Rank
198
277

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nice Le Havre

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nice NCE Home
7 matches
Le Havre LEH Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
8
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:04:24+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
Y. Diouf
80 Y. Diouf
A. Mendy
33 A. Mendy
A. Juma Bah
28 A. Juma Bah
D. da Costa Santos
4 D. da Costa Santos
J. Clauss
92 J. Clauss
M. Sanson
8 M. Sanson
C. Vanhoutte
24 C. Vanhoutte
H. Boudaoui
6 H. Boudaoui
M. Bard
26 M. Bard
S. Diop
10 S. Diop
S. Wahi
11 S. Wahi
M. Diaw
99 M. Diaw
G. Lloris
4 G. Lloris
A. Seko
15 A. Seko
A. Sangante
93 A. Sangante
Y. Zouaoui
18 Y. Zouaoui
S. Ebonog
26 S. Ebonog
L. Gourna Douath
19 L. Gourna Douath
L. Nego
7 L. Nego
S. Boufal
17 S. Boufal
I. Soumaré
45 I. Soumaré
R. N'Diaye
14 R. N'Diaye

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Allianz Riviera
Capacity
36178
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
A. Kherradji
Ludovic Reyes
Aurélien Drouet
Brendan Roffet

Expected Lineup

Referee : A. Kherradji

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
26
Melvin Bard
Melvin Bard Midfielder
92
Jonathan Clauss
Jonathan Clauss Midfielder
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Attacker
11
Elye Wahi
Elye Wahi Attacker
28
Juma Bah
Juma Bah Centre Back
4
Dante
Dante Left Back
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Right Back
24
Charles Vanhoutte
Charles Vanhoutte Central Midfield
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Central Midfield
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Central Midfield
Referee : A. Kherradji

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
7
Loïc Nego
Loïc Nego Midfielder
18
Yanis Zouaoui
Yanis Zouaoui Midfielder
14
Rassoul Ndiaye
Rassoul Ndiaye Attacker
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Centre Forward
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Attacker
19
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Lucas Gourna-Douath Central Midfield
15
Ayumu Seko
Ayumu Seko Centre Back
26
Simon Ebonog
Simon Ebonog Central Midfield
93
Arouna Sangante
Arouna Sangante Right Back
4
Gautier Lloris
Gautier Lloris Left Back

CONCLUSION

Nice enters this fixture with a stronger pre-match profile, holding a 3.3-point power advantage over Le Havre based on underlying structural metrics. The analytical data points to a home advantage, and the market probabilities align with this assessment, establishing Nice as the leader at 49.2 percent. Conversely, Le Havre trails at 23.6 percent, reflecting a lower form score and recent difficulties securing victories in domestic play. Given both teams have recorded negative results in recent weeks, the outcome will likely hinge on maximizing efficiency during transitional phases and maintaining defensive discipline.