Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
St. James' Park Today - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Newcastle United NEW
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA
KICKOFF : Today - 2:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Newcastle United welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to St. James' Park for a Premier League regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. The Magpies boast a clear power advantage, rated at 87.83 compared to Brighton's 73.57, translating to a 14.3-point edge that marks them as the stronger side overall. Despite sitting 14th in the domestic standings, Newcastle's underlying metrics suggest resilience at home. Brighton, perched higher at 6th, enter with superior recent form at 29.94 versus Newcastle's 17.78, potentially fueling an upset bid. With no recent outings detailed and set-piece data unavailable due to low-confidence proxies, the focus shifts to transitional play and squad depth. Newcastle's home fortress could prove decisive against a Seagulls team leaning on momentum. Expect a tight encounter where power meets form in the North East.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Newcastle United holds a 14.3-point power advantage over Brighton & Hove Albion.
  • Form: Brighton & Hove Albion leads in form score with 29.94 against Newcastle United's 17.78.
  • Squad: Newcastle United ranks 14th domestically while Brighton & Hove Albion sits 6th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency metrics available for either team.
  • Transition: Limited transitional data provided for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, hindering advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Newcastle United 37.9% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 26% (Δ+0.1%) | Brighton & Hove Albion 36.1% (Δ-0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
VS
Brighton & Hove Albion F. Hürzeler
F. Hürzeler
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 88 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 82 D
Burnley Rank: 79 W
Liverpool Rank: 92 W
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 8 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Newcastle United
37.86%
Draw
26.03%
Away Brighton & Hove Albion
36.12%

Movement

Changes since opening
Newcastle United
-0.07%
Draw
+0.14%
Brighton & Hove Albion
-0.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.83
73.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
Power Score
87.83
73.57
League Position
14
6
Global Rank
17
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Brighton & Hove Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Newcastle United Brighton & Hove Albion

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Newcastle United NEW Home
22 matches
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA Away
Match Record
4
Wins
10
8
Draws
8
10
Losses
4
Goals
17
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
17
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:08:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
N. Pope
England
1 N. Pope
L. Miley
England
67 L. Miley
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
D. Burn
England
33 D. Burn
J. Willock
England
28 J. Willock
S. Tonali
Italy
8 S. Tonali
B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
Brazil
39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
J. Murphy
England
23 J. Murphy
W. Osula
Denmark
18 W. Osula
J. Ramsey
England
41 J. Ramsey
B. Verbruggen
Netherlands
1 B. Verbruggen
F. Kadıoğlu
Türkiye
24 F. Kadıoğlu
O. Boscagli
France
21 O. Boscagli
J. van Hecke
Netherlands
6 J. van Hecke
M. Wieffer
Netherlands
27 M. Wieffer
P. Groß
Germany
30 P. Groß
C. Noom Quomah
Cameroon
17 C. Noom Quomah
K. Mitoma
Japan
22 K. Mitoma
J. Hinshelwood
England
13 J. Hinshelwood
Y. Minteh
Gambia
11 Y. Minteh
G. Rutter
France
10 G. Rutter

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. James' Park
Capacity
52409
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Chris Kavanagh
Ian Hussin
Robert Madley
Daniel Cook

Lineup

Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Nick Pope
Nick Pope Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
6.92
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
6.97
33
Dan Burn
Dan Burn Defender
6.67
67
Lewis Miley
Lewis Miley Defender
6.99
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Midfielder
6.94
28
Joe Willock
Joe Willock Midfielder
6.65
39
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.32
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
6.67
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy Attacker
6.76
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey Attacker
6.65
Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Bart Verbruggen
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper
6.87
6
Jan Paul van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender
7.09
21
Olivier Boscagli
Olivier Boscagli Defender
6.92
24
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Ferdi Kadıoğlu Defender
6.86
27
Mats Wieffer
Mats Wieffer Defender
6.91
13
Jack Hinshelwood
Jack Hinshelwood Midfielder
6.7
17
Carlos Baleba
Carlos Baleba Midfielder
6.6
30
Pascal Groß
Pascal Groß Midfielder
7.26
10
Georginio Rutter
Georginio Rutter Attacker
6.81
11
Yankuba Minteh
Yankuba Minteh Attacker
6.92
22
Kaoru Mitoma
Kaoru Mitoma Attacker
6.77

CONCLUSION

Newcastle United's superior power rating positions them favorably at St. James' Park, where home advantage amplifies their 14.3-point edge over Brighton. Yet Brighton's stronger form and higher league standing introduce tension, hinting at a competitive battle. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, the game may hinge on transitional moments and squad execution. Newcastle's structural strengths likely prevail in a narrow victory, capitalizing on venue familiarity against a form-driven Brighton side. Fans anticipate a pulsating Premier League encounter.