Motherwell vs Hearts preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Yesterday - 7:00 PM
Premiership
Motherwell MOT
Hearts Hearts
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 7:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Motherwell host Hearts in Premiership (2nd Phase) at Fir Park. Domestically, Motherwell sit 4th in the table while Hearts are 1th. Power ranking favours Hearts by 7.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hearts lead the Premiership and hold a 74.65 power score, surpassing Motherwell's 66.97 by 7.7 points.
  • Form: Hearts register a strong form score of 34.61, well ahead of Motherwell's 13.67.
  • Squad: Motherwell occupy 4th in the league while Hearts top the standings with domestic positioning.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play analysis lacks supporting metrics in the dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats for both teams use low-confidence proxies without xG data.
  • xVariable: xG information unavailable, limiting variable-based insights.
  • Market: Motherwell 34% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.3% (Δ+0%) | Hearts 38.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 64 L
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hearts Rank: 75 L
Falkirk Rank: 66 L
Hibernian Rank: 68 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
23
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
23 - 10 - 30
30
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
33.99%
Draw
27.25%
Away Hearts
38.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.97
74.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
Hearts
Power Score
66.97
74.65
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
270
123

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Hearts

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 63 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
63 matches
Hearts Hearts Away
Match Record
23
Wins
30
10
Draws
10
30
Losses
23
Goals
66
Goals Scored
89
89
Goals Conceded
66
-23
Goal Difference
+23
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T02:03:54+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
C. Ward
13 C. Ward
T. Sparrow
7 T. Sparrow
P. McGinn
16 P. McGinn
S. Welsh
57 S. Welsh
S. O'Donnell
2 S. O'Donnell
L. Fadinger
12 L. Fadinger
E. Watt
20 E. Watt
T. Maswanhise
18 T. Maswanhise
C. Slattery
8 C. Slattery
M. Emmanuel
45 M. Emmanuel
E. Just
21 E. Just
A. Schwolow
25 A. Schwolow
S. Kingsley
3 S. Kingsley
S. Findlay
19 S. Findlay
C. Halkett
4 C. Halkett
M. Steinwender
15 M. Steinwender
A. Kiziridis
89 A. Kiziridis
B. Baningime
6 B. Baningime
M. Leonard
49 M. Leonard
I. Chesnokov
99 I. Chesnokov
C. Soares Braga
10 C. Soares Braga
L. Shankland
9 L. Shankland

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Fir Park
Capacity
13742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Steven McLean
Ross MacLeod
Scott Robert Anderson
Gary Hanvidge

Expected Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
7.08
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Centre Forward
7.15
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Right Back
6.65
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn Right Back
6.94
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Right Wing
7.02
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Defensive Midfield
6.92
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Defensive Midfield
7.4
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Left Back
6.83
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Attacking Midfield
7.14
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Left Wing
6.87
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Left Back
6.46
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.77
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Midfielder
6.49
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
7.01
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
7.21
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
7
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Right Back
7.13
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Central Midfield
7.42
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Central Midfield
6.69
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Left Back
6.95
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Left Back
7.11
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Right Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

Hearts enter as favorites, leveraging league leadership and superior power alongside form to challenge Motherwell at Fir Park. The hosts, buoyed by home support in 4th place, face a test against the Jambos' 7.7-point edge. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece xG, execution in open play and transitions will prove decisive. Motherwell's resilience could exploit any visitor complacency, yet Hearts' metrics point toward a potential away success in this 2nd Phase clash. Expect a competitive battle where tactical discipline separates the sides.