Millwall vs Oxford United preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Millwall MLW
Oxford United OXF
KICKOFF : Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Millwall host Oxford United in Championship (Regular Season) at The Den. Domestically, Millwall sit 3th in the table while Oxford United are 22th. Power ranking favours Millwall by 12.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Millwall possesses a 12.7-point power advantage at 31.52 over Oxford United's 18.78.
  • Form: Millwall's form score stands at 27.61, surpassing Oxford United's 11.78.
  • Squad: Millwall occupies 3rd in the Championship table while Oxford United sits 22nd.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data lacks availability in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies without xG data for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables remain unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Millwall 67.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 19.7% (Δ+0%) | Oxford United 12.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leicester City Rank: D
Stoke City Rank: W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Watford Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: D
Hull City Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
67.78%
Draw
19.69%
Away Oxford United
12.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.52
18.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Oxford United
Power Score
31.52
18.78
League Position
3
22
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Oxford United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Millwall MLW Home
4 matches
Oxford United OXF Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:28:22+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium
The Den
Capacity
20146
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

43
Joel Coleman
Joel Coleman Goalkeeper
15
Maxime Teremoana Crocombe
Maxime Teremoana Crocombe Goalkeeper
13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
1
Lukas Jensen
Lukas Jensen Goalkeeper
41
George Evans
George Evans Goalkeeper
23
Joe Bryan
Joe Bryan Defender
18
Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard Defender
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Defender
2
Dan McNamara
Dan McNamara Defender
6
Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor Defender
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
3
Zak Norton Sturge
Zak Norton Sturge Defender
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan Midfielder
21
Massimo Corey Luongo
Massimo Corey Luongo Midfielder
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Midfielder
39
William Smallbone
William Smallbone Midfielder
14
Alfie Doughty
Alfie Doughty Midfielder
25
Luke Cundle
Luke Cundle Midfielder
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
8
Billy Mitchell
Billy Mitchell Midfielder
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko Midfielder
16
Daniel Kelly
Daniel Kelly Midfielder
17
Macaulay Langstaff
Macaulay Langstaff Attacker
7
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo Attacker
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Attacker
26
Benicio Baker-Boatiey
Benicio Baker-Boatiey Attacker
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Attacker
22
Tom Watson
Tom Watson Attacker
29
Zakariya Lovelace
Zakariya Lovelace Attacker
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović Attacker
31
Raees Bangura-Williams
Raees Bangura-Williams Attacker

Squad ▼

13
Simon Eastwood
Simon Eastwood Goalkeeper
21
Matt Ingram
Matt Ingram Goalkeeper
1
James Andrew Cumming
James Andrew Cumming Goalkeeper
31
Jacob Knightbridge
Jacob Knightbridge Goalkeeper
29
Ben Davies
Ben Davies Defender
22
Gregory Leigh
Gregory Leigh Defender
2
Sam Long
Sam Long Defender
3
Ciaron Brown
Ciaron Brown Defender
24
Hidde ter Avest
Hidde ter Avest Defender
6
Michal Helik
Michal Helik Defender
12
Ruben Roosken
Ruben Roosken Defender
15
Brodie Spencer
Brodie Spencer Defender
26
Jack Alexander Currie
Jack Alexander Currie Defender
37
Christ Makosso
Christ Makosso Defender
8
Cameron Brannagan
Cameron Brannagan Midfielder
4
Will Vaulks
Will Vaulks Midfielder
44
Myles Peart-Harris
Myles Peart-Harris Midfielder
14
Brian De Keersmaecker
Brian De Keersmaecker Midfielder
38
Jamie McDonnell
Jamie McDonnell Midfielder
33
Jamie Donley
Jamie Donley Midfielder
36
Josh Johnson
Josh Johnson Midfielder
5
Yunus Konak
Yunus Konak Midfielder
9
Mark Thomas Harris
Mark Thomas Harris Attacker
7
Przemysław Płacheta
Przemysław Płacheta Attacker
23
Siriki Dembele
Siriki Dembele Attacker
11
Ole ter Haar Romeny
Ole ter Haar Romeny Attacker
32
Se-Jin Jeon
Se-Jin Jeon Attacker
16
Nik Prelec
Nik Prelec Attacker
19
Tyler Goodhram
Tyler Goodhram Attacker
10
Aidomo Emakhu
Aidomo Emakhu Attacker
17
Stanley Mills
Stanley Mills Attacker
39
G. O'Donkor
G. O'Donkor Attacker
27
Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear Attacker

CONCLUSION

Millwall enters this matchup as overwhelming favorites, leveraging superior power, form, and league position to dominate Oxford United at The Den. The 12.7-point power gap and third-place standing position the hosts for a routine victory in their promotion chase. Oxford's 22nd-place woes and inferior 11.78 form score expose vulnerabilities, especially away. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, core metrics paint a clear picture of Millwall's control. Expect the Lions to capitalize on home advantage, securing points crucial for top-flight aspirations while deepening Oxford's relegation fears.