Middlesbrough vs Watford preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Riverside Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 11:30 AM
Championship
Middlesbrough MID
Watford WAT
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 11:30 AM
Round 45 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Middlesbrough host Watford in Championship (Regular Season) at Riverside Stadium. Domestically, Middlesbrough sit 5th in the table while Watford are 15th. Power ranking favours Middlesbrough by 7.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Middlesbrough possess a 7.8-point power advantage at 22.22 versus Watford's 14.45 and sit 5th to the visitors' 15th.
  • Form: Middlesbrough's form score of 7.67 significantly outpaces Watford's 3.89.
  • Squad: No squad updates or compositions detailed for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats carry low confidence with no xG available and proxies used for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Middlesbrough 69.1% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 19.2% (Δ-0.1%) | Watford 11.8% (Δ+-0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
VS
Watford E. Still
E. Still
1.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Portsmouth Rank: L
Swansea City Rank: D
Millwall Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: L
Sheffield United Rank: L
Oxford United Rank: L
Charlton Athletic Rank: D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: L
Leicester City Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 13
13
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Middlesbrough
69.05%
Draw
19.17%
Away Watford
11.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Middlesbrough
+0.08%
Draw
-0.05%
Watford
-0.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.22
14.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Middlesbrough
Watford
Power Score
22.22
14.45
League Position
5
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Watford — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Middlesbrough Watford

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Middlesbrough MID Home
25 matches
Watford WAT Away
Match Record
7
Wins
13
5
Draws
5
13
Losses
7
Goals
27
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
27
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T09:30:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Brynn
England
31 S. Brynn
A. Malanda
France
29 A. Malanda
D. Fry
England
6 D. Fry
L. Ayling
England
12 L. Ayling
C. Brittain
England
2 C. Brittain
A. Browne
Republic of Ireland
16 A. Browne
A. Morris
United States
18 A. Morris
M. Whittaker
England
11 M. Whittaker
M. Targett
England
3 M. Targett
T. Conway
Scotland
9 T. Conway
D. Strelec
Slovakia
13 D. Strelec
E. Selvik
Norway
1 E. Selvik
K. Keben
Cameroon
4 K. Keben
J. Abankwah
Republic of Ireland
25 J. Abankwah
M. Pollock
England
6 M. Pollock
J. Pétris
France
29 J. Pétris
O. Maamma
Morocco
42 O. Maamma
E. Kayembe
DR Congo
39 E. Kayembe
N. Mendy
Senegal
23 N. Mendy
N. Irankunda
Australia
66 N. Irankunda
G. Chakvetadze
Georgia
8 G. Chakvetadze
L. Kjerrumgaard
Denmark
9 L. Kjerrumgaard

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium
Riverside Stadium
Capacity
34988
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adam Herczeg
Simon Mather
C. Gough
Mark Stevens

Lineup

Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

31
Sol Brynn
Sol Brynn Goalkeeper
6.76
6
Dael Fry
Dael Fry Defender
7.14
12
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling Defender
7.13
29
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda Defender
6.86
2
Callum Brittain
Callum Brittain Midfielder
7
3
Matt Targett
Matt Targett Midfielder
7.1
11
Morgan Whittaker
Morgan Whittaker Midfielder
7.03
16
Alan Browne
Alan Browne Midfielder
6.88
18
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris Midfielder
7.27
9
Tommy Conway
Tommy Conway Attacker
6.91
13
David Strelec
David Strelec Attacker
6.74
Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

1
Egil Selvik
Egil Selvik Goalkeeper
6.88
4
Kévin Keben
Kévin Keben Defender
6.65
6
Mattie Pollock
Mattie Pollock Defender
6.86
25
James Abankwah
James Abankwah Defender
6.65
29
Jérémy Pétris
Jérémy Pétris Defender
6.61
23
Nampalys Mendy
Nampalys Mendy Midfielder
6.69
39
Edo Kayembe
Edo Kayembe Midfielder
6.93
42
Othmane Maamma
Othmane Maamma Midfielder
6.78
66
Nestory Irankunda
Nestory Irankunda Midfielder
6.83
8
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Giorgi Chakvetadze Attacker
6.84
9
Luca Kjerrumgaard
Luca Kjerrumgaard Attacker
6.82

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Middlesbrough holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Middlesbrough a 7.8-point edge. External projection is Middlesbrough 69%, draw 19.2%, and Watford 11.8%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.