Manchester United vs Liverpool preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Old Trafford Today - 2:30 PM
Premier League
Manchester United MUN
Liverpool LIV
KICKOFF : Today - 2:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Manchester United host Liverpool in Premier League (Regular Season) at Old Trafford. Domestically, Manchester United sit 3th in the table while Liverpool are 4th. Power ranking favours Liverpool by 1.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Liverpool hold a +1.3 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Manchester United are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Manchester United show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Liverpool have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Liverpool carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Liverpool hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Manchester United 42.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25% (Δ+0%) | Liverpool 32.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Manchester United M. Carrick
M. Carrick
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
1.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brentford Rank: 88 W
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Leeds United Rank: 85 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Aston Villa Rank: 90 W
Newcastle United Rank: 88 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Everton Rank: 88 W
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 83 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 L
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 13 - 20
20
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester United
42.38%
Draw
24.98%
Away Liverpool
32.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
91
92.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester United
Liverpool
Power Score
91
92.32
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
8
6

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Manchester United — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester United Liverpool

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 59 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester United MUN Home
59 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
26
Wins
20
13
Draws
13
20
Losses
26
Goals
70
Goals Scored
82
82
Goals Conceded
70
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:06:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
S. Lammens
Belgium
31 S. Lammens
J. Dalot Teixeira
Portugal
2 J. Dalot Teixeira
H. Maguire
England
5 H. Maguire
A. Heaven
England
26 A. Heaven
P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
Denmark
13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
C. Casimiro
Brazil
18 C. Casimiro
K. Mainoo
England
37 K. Mainoo
B. Mbeumo
Cameroon
19 B. Mbeumo
B. Fernandes
Portugal
8 B. Fernandes
A. Traoré
Ivory Coast
16 A. Traoré
B. Šeško
Slovenia
30 B. Šeško
F. Woodman
England
28 F. Woodman
A. Robertson
Scotland
26 A. Robertson
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 V. van Dijk
I. Konaté
France
5 I. Konaté
C. Jones
England
17 C. Jones
A. Mac Allister
Argentina
10 A. Mac Allister
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
C. Gakpo
Netherlands
18 C. Gakpo
F. Wirtz
Germany
7 F. Wirtz
F. Chiesa
Italy
14 F. Chiesa
A. Isak
Sweden
9 A. Isak

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Old Trafford
Capacity
74879
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Darren England
Tim Wood
Akil Howson
Anthony Taylor

Lineup

Referee : Darren England

Starting XI ▼

31
Senne Lammens
Senne Lammens Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Diogo Dalot
Diogo Dalot Defender
6.87
5
Harry Maguire
Harry Maguire Defender
6.77
13
Patrick Dorgu
Patrick Dorgu Defender
6.97
26
Ayden Heaven
Ayden Heaven Defender
6.8
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder
7.76
18
Casemiro
Casemiro Midfielder
7.18
37
Kobbie Mainoo
Kobbie Mainoo Midfielder
6.8
16
Amad Diallo
Amad Diallo Attacker
7.06
19
Bryan Mbeumo
Bryan Mbeumo Attacker
7.02
30
Benjamin Sesko
Benjamin Sesko Attacker
6.81
Referee : Darren England

Starting XI ▼

28
Freddie Woodman
Freddie Woodman Goalkeeper
7.05
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
7.11
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
6.98
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones Defender
6.82
26
Andrew Robertson
Andrew Robertson Defender
6.71
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Midfielder
7.06
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder
7.33
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
6.86
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak Attacker
6.64
14
Federico Chiesa
Federico Chiesa Attacker
6.63
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Attacker
7.12

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Liverpool holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Liverpool a 1.3-point edge. External projection is Manchester United 42.1%, draw 24.9%, and Liverpool 33%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.