Livingston vs Aberdeen preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tony Macaroni Arena Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
Livingston LIV
Aberdeen ABE
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Livingston host Aberdeen at Tony Macaroni Arena in the Scottish Premiership's 2nd Phase of the 2025/2026 season. Sitting 12th in the table, Livingston face an uphill battle against 8th-placed Aberdeen, who boast a superior power score of 17.5 compared to the hosts' 13.92, translating to a 3.6-point advantage. Form scores further tilt the scales, with Aberdeen at 15.61 against Livingston's 13.5. This matchup pits a struggling side against a more robust visitor, where Aberdeen's edge in overall strength could prove decisive. Detailed metrics on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces remain unavailable due to low-confidence proxy data, leaving analysis reliant on broader indicators. Livingston will need a strong home performance to counter Aberdeen's momentum in the league standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aberdeen enters with a 3.6-point power advantage and higher league position at 8th versus Livingston's 12th.
  • Form: Aberdeen's form score of 15.61 surpasses Livingston's 13.5 in recent assessments.
  • Squad: Squad composition details unavailable for both Livingston and Aberdeen.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency statistics not provided for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics absent from available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data relies on low-confidence proxies for both teams with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xVariable insights unavailable due to missing advanced metrics.
  • Market: Livingston 33.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.2% (Δ+0%) | Aberdeen 39.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
VS
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
0.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: W
Dundee United Rank: L
Hearts Rank: D
Kilmarnock Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: W
Hibernian Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: L
Rangers Rank: L
Falkirk Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Livingston
33.57%
Draw
27.15%
Away Aberdeen
39.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.92
17.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Livingston
Aberdeen
Power Score
13.92
17.5
League Position
12
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Livingston Aberdeen

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Livingston LIV Home
26 matches
Aberdeen ABE Away
Match Record
4
Wins
15
7
Draws
7
15
Losses
4
Goals
20
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
20
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:27:07+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Prior
28 J. Prior
B. Kabongolo
23 B. Kabongolo
D. Wilson
27 D. Wilson
R. McGowan
5 R. McGowan
D. Finlayson
19 D. Finlayson
M. Sylla
24 M. Sylla
S. Arfield
37 S. Arfield
C. Montaño Castillo
26 C. Montaño Castillo
L. Smith
15 L. Smith
S. May
17 S. May
J. Nouble
7 J. Nouble
D. Mitov
1 D. Mitov
G. Molloy
21 G. Molloy
L. Morrison
23 L. Morrison
J. Milne
22 J. Milne
M. Frame
3 M. Frame
S. Armstrong
16 S. Armstrong
A. Aremu
32 A. Aremu
A. Jensen
28 A. Jensen
L. Cameron
25 L. Cameron
K. Nisbet
15 K. Nisbet
T. Olusanya
20 T. Olusanya

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Tony Macaroni Arena
Capacity
9672
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.85
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Midfielder
6.76
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Midfielder
6.7
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
6.89
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Attacker
6.82
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Centre Back
6.56
5
Ryan McGowan
Ryan McGowan Left Back
6.62
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Attacking Midfield
6.8
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Central Midfield
6.58
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Central Midfield
6.79
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Right Back
6.85

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Mitchel Frame
Mitchel Frame Midfielder
6.76
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Midfielder
6.71
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.86
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
6.54
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Centre Back
6.58
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Central Midfield
6.97
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Left Back
6.73
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Right Back
6.74
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron Attacking Midfield
6.58
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Central Midfield
6.86

CONCLUSION

Aberdeen's clear power and form edges position them as favorites in this Premiership encounter at Tony Macaroni Arena. Livingston, languishing in 12th, must leverage home advantage to bridge the 3.6-point gap and inferior 13.5 form score. Without granular data on set pieces or efficiency, the focus falls on Aberdeen's structural superiority driving potential success. Expect a competitive battle where the visitors' higher standing and metrics could secure vital points in the 2nd Phase.