Kilmarnock vs Dundee United preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Kilmarnock KIL
Dundee United DUD
KICKOFF : Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Kilmarnock host Dundee United at Rugby Park in the Premiership's 2nd Phase of the 2025/2026 season, with both sides battling for mid-table stability. Sitting 11th, Kilmarnock face a tougher challenge against 7th-placed Dundee United, who boast a clear power advantage of 8.5 points and a higher overall rating of 27.07 compared to the home side's 18.57. Form also tilts towards the visitors, with a 26.39 score versus Kilmarnock's 16.44, suggesting recent momentum favors Dundee United. At home, Kilmarnock will lean on Rugby Park's atmosphere to disrupt a side that has shown greater consistency. However, detailed metrics on efficiency, set pieces, and transitions remain limited, pointing to a contest defined by raw power disparities and tactical discipline. Dundee United's edge positions them as favorites, but Kilmarnock's resilience could make this a gritty affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Dundee United hold a structural edge with an 8.5-point power advantage over Kilmarnock.
  • Form: Dundee United demonstrate superior form at 26.39 compared to Kilmarnock's 16.44.
  • Squad: Kilmarnock sit 11th while Dundee United occupy 7th in the league standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for analysis.
  • Market: Kilmarnock 41.2% (Δ+1%) | Draw 26.3% (Δ-0.2%) | Dundee United 32.6% (Δ-0.8%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
0.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: L
Dundee Rank: D
Hibernian Rank: L
Livingston Rank: W
Hearts Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: W
Livingston Rank: W
Rangers Rank: L
Celtic Rank: W
Dundee Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 18 - 16
16
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kilmarnock
41.15%
Draw
26.26%
Away Dundee United
32.59%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kilmarnock
+0.98%
Draw
-0.21%
Dundee United
-0.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.57
27.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Dundee United
Power Score
18.57
27.07
League Position
11
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Dundee United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
49 matches
Dundee United DUD Away
Match Record
15
Wins
16
18
Draws
18
16
Losses
15
Goals
68
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
68
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:31:02+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Rugby Park
Capacity
18128
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

13
Kelle Roos
Kelle Roos Goalkeeper
1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Defender
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon Defender
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson Defender
21
Michael Schjonning-Larsen
Michael Schjonning-Larsen Defender
5
Lewis Mayo
Lewis Mayo Defender
4
Zac Williams
Zac Williams Defender
25
Ethan Brown
Ethan Brown Defender
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
8
Bradley Lyons
Bradley Lyons Midfielder
31
Liam Polworth
Liam Polworth Midfielder
16
Kyle Magennis
Kyle Magennis Midfielder
22
Jack Thomson
Jack Thomson Midfielder
12
David Watson
David Watson Midfielder
23
Marley Watkins
Marley Watkins Attacker
10
Matthew Kennedy
Matthew Kennedy Attacker
7
Rory McKenzie
Rory McKenzie Attacker
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Attacker
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Attacker
17
Scott Tiffoney
Scott Tiffoney Attacker
24
Tyreece John-Jules
Tyreece John-Jules Attacker
29
Djenario Daniels
Djenario Daniels Attacker
20
Nicky Serghei Clescenco
Nicky Serghei Clescenco Attacker
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Attacker

Squad ▼

25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards Goalkeeper
1
Ashley Maynard-Brewer
Ashley Maynard-Brewer Goalkeeper
2
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain Defender
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Defender
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
4
Iurie Iovu
Iurie Iovu Defender
3
Bert Esselink
Bert Esselink Defender
22
Dario Naamo
Dario Naamo Defender
8
Panutche Amadu Pereira Camará
Panutche Amadu Pereira Camará Midfielder
14
Craig Sibbald
Craig Sibbald Midfielder
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
10
Julius Eskesen
Julius Eskesen Midfielder
20
Neil Farrugia
Neil Farrugia Midfielder
5
Vicko Ševelj
Vicko Ševelj Midfielder
21
Luca Stephenson
Luca Stephenson Midfielder
30
Lewis O'Donnell
Lewis O'Donnell Midfielder
70
Isaac Pappoe
Isaac Pappoe Midfielder
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
77
Johnny Russell
Johnny Russell Attacker
7
Kristijan Trapanovski
Kristijan Trapanovski Attacker
19
Ivan Dolček
Ivan Dolček Attacker
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford Attacker
17
Amar Abdirahman Ahmed Fatah
Amar Abdirahman Ahmed Fatah Attacker

CONCLUSION

Dundee United enter as the stronger outfit, powered by superior ratings and form that underline their higher league standing. Kilmarnock, despite home advantage at Rugby Park, face an uphill task against a side with clear momentum. Absent detailed set-piece or efficiency insights, the match hinges on Dundee United's ability to convert their 8.5-point edge into control. Expect a competitive battle where visitors' consistency may prevail, though Kilmarnock's grit could force a draw. Overall, Dundee United's profile suggests they carry the greater threat in this Premiership clash.