İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor preview

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
Samsunspor Samsunspor
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

İstanbul Başakşehir host Samsunspor in Super Lig (Regular Season) at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Domestically, İstanbul Başakşehir sit 6th in the table while Samsunspor are 7th. Power ranking favours İstanbul Başakşehir by 1.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: İstanbul Başakşehir enjoys a 1.7-point power advantage over Samsunspor and holds 6th place to their 7th in the Super Lig.
  • Form: Samsunspor leads in form with a score of 36.33 compared to İstanbul Başakşehir's 18.11.
  • Squad: Power scores indicate İstanbul Başakşehir's squad slightly outrates Samsunspor's at 75.64 versus 73.98.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable as data not enabled.
  • Market: İstanbul Başakşehir 50.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.5% (Δ-0.2%) | Samsunspor 23.8% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 W
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: 87 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 W
Eyüpspor Rank: 64 W
Rizespor Rank: 70 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home İstanbul Başakşehir
50.71%
Draw
25.46%
Away Samsunspor
23.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
İstanbul Başakşehir
+0.02%
Draw
-0.17%
Samsunspor
+0.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.64
73.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Power Score
75.64
73.98
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
109
131

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) İstanbul Başakşehir Samsunspor

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Home
7 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
5
Goals
14
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
14
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:08:50+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Şengezer
16 M. Şengezer
Ö. Şahiner
42 Ö. Şahiner
L. Duarte da Silva
5 L. Duarte da Silva
J. Opoku
3 J. Opoku
K. Karataş
88 K. Karataş
O. Kemen
8 O. Kemen
U. Güneş
20 U. Güneş
Y. Sari
7 Y. Sari
E. Shomurodov
14 E. Shomurodov
A. Harit
25 A. Harit
B. Yıldırım
91 B. Yıldırım
O. Kocuk
1 O. Kocuk
L. Tómasson
17 L. Tómasson
R. van Drongelen
4 R. van Drongelen
Ľ. Šatka
37 Ľ. Šatka
J. Wooding Mendes
2 J. Wooding Mendes
Y. Kayan
20 Y. Kayan
A. Makoumbou
29 A. Makoumbou
E. Tavsan
7 E. Tavsan
C. Holse
21 C. Holse
P. Ndiaye
19 P. Ndiaye
M. Mouandilmadji
9 M. Mouandilmadji

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu
Capacity
17156
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
7.05
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım Centre Forward
6.84
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Left Wing
7.06
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Attacking Midfield
7.25
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Defensive Midfield
6.72
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Left Back
6.82
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Right Back
6.99
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Right Wing
7.19
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Defensive Midfield
6.92
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Right Back
6.7
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Left Back
6.55

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
6.71
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Centre Forward
6.82
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Left Back
7.03
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye Right Wing
6.91
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Defensive Midfield
6.73
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Right Back
6.51
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan Left Wing
6.86
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Left Back
6.84
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Defensive Midfield
6.87
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Attacking Midfield
7.12
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka Right Back
6.75

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward İstanbul Başakşehir holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give İstanbul Başakşehir a 1.7-point edge. External projection is İstanbul Başakşehir 49.7%, draw 26.1%, and Samsunspor 24.2%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.