Hamburger SV vs TSG Hoffenheim preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volksparkstadion Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV HSV
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Hamburger SV welcome TSG Hoffenheim to Volksparkstadion for a crucial Bundesliga regular season clash in 2025/2026. The hosts sit 14th in the table, grappling with inconsistency, while Hoffenheim occupy a strong 5th position, showcasing greater overall quality. Hoffenheim's power score of 26.51 dwarfs HSV's 18.04, granting them an 8.5-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with visitors at 19.06 against the home side's modest 8.56, signaling recent momentum in their favor. Lacking detailed efficiency or set-piece data, the focus shifts to Hoffenheim's proven edge in transitions and squad depth. HSV must rally their home crowd to disrupt the visitors' rhythm, but Hoffenheim's higher league standing and statistical dominance position them as the team to beat in this matchup.

TL;DR

  • Structural: TSG Hoffenheim possesses a clear power advantage of 8.5 points over Hamburger SV with scores of 26.51 to 18.04.
  • Form: Hoffenheim leads in form score at 19.06 compared to Hamburger SV's 8.56.
  • Squad: Hamburger SV ranks 14th in the Bundesliga while TSG Hoffenheim sits 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Hoffenheim's superior power rating suggests stronger transition play capabilities.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data shows low confidence with proxy metrics used for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable analysis for the matchup.
  • Market: Hamburger SV 23.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.9% (Δ+0%) | TSG Hoffenheim 54% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
VS
TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
FC Augsburg Rank: D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
FC Köln Rank: D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Dortmund Rank: W
FC Augsburg Rank: D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: D
Heidenheim Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 4 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hamburger SV
23.14%
Draw
22.85%
Away TSG Hoffenheim
54.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.04
26.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim
Power Score
18.04
26.51
League Position
14
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hamburger SV TSG Hoffenheim

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hamburger SV HSV Home
21 matches
TSG Hoffenheim TSG Away
Match Record
8
Wins
9
4
Draws
4
9
Losses
8
Goals
24
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
24
-14
Goal Difference
+14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:08:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Heuer Fernandes
Portugal
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo
Argentina
24 N. Capaldo
J. Torunarigha
Nigeria
25 J. Torunarigha
W. Omari
France
17 W. Omari
B. Jatta
Gambia
18 B. Jatta
A. Erlykke
Denmark
23 A. Erlykke
N. Remberg
Germany
21 N. Remberg
W. Mikelbrencis
France
2 W. Mikelbrencis
F. Ferreira Vieira
Portugal
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
R. Glatzel
Germany
9 R. Glatzel
R. Königsdörffer
Ghana
11 R. Königsdörffer
O. Baumann
Germany
1 O. Baumann
B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
Brazil
13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
A. Hajdari
Switzerland
21 A. Hajdari
O. Kabak
Türkiye
5 O. Kabak
V. Coufal
Czech Republic
34 V. Coufal
W. Burger
Netherlands
18 W. Burger
L. Avdullahu
Switzerland
7 L. Avdullahu
B. Touré
Ivory Coast
29 B. Touré
F. Asllani
Germany
11 F. Asllani
A. Kramarić
Croatia
27 A. Kramarić
T. Lemperle
Germany
19 T. Lemperle

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Volksparkstadion
Capacity
57000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
René Rohde
Patrick Kessel
Florian Lechner
Robert Schröder

Lineup

Referee : Robert Schröder

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
6.87
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Defender
6.5
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
6.61
18
Bakery Jatta
Bakery Jatta Defender
6.64
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Nicolás Capaldo Defender
6.82
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
6.79
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Midfielder
7.1
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder
6.87
23
Albert Grønbæk
Albert Grønbæk Midfielder
6.53
9
Robert Glatzel
Robert Glatzel Attacker
6.66
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
6.71
Referee : Robert Schröder

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Baumann
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper
6.78
5
Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak Defender
7
13
Bernardo
Bernardo Defender
6.86
21
Albian Hajdari
Albian Hajdari Defender
6.92
34
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Defender
7.07
7
Leon Avdullahu
Leon Avdullahu Midfielder
6.89
11
Fisnik Asllani
Fisnik Asllani Midfielder
7.01
18
Wouter Burger
Wouter Burger Midfielder
7.15
19
Tim Lemperle
Tim Lemperle Attacker
6.91
27
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric Attacker
7.19
29
Bazoumana Touré
Bazoumana Touré Attacker
6.92

CONCLUSION

Hoffenheim arrive as favorites, bolstered by their higher power score, better form, and loftier league position, making them well-equipped to exploit HSV's vulnerabilities at Volksparkstadion. The home side's lower metrics across key areas demand a flawless performance to compete, particularly in open play where Hoffenheim's edge shines. Without standout set-piece insights, the battle hinges on squad execution and momentum. Expect Hoffenheim to control proceedings and secure a vital away result in this uneven contest.