Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos Today - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente GVFC
Casa Pia CPAC
KICKOFF : Today - 7:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Gil Vicente hosts Casa Pia at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in a Liga Portugal regular season fixture of the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side, perched at 6th in the standings, carries a power score of 17.43, surpassing the 16th-placed visitors' 16.55 by a 0.9-point margin, positioning Gil Vicente as the stronger team overall. This structural edge contrasts with recent form, where Casa Pia leads with an 8.56 score against Gil Vicente's 7.67, hinting at potential upset risks. Projections align with the hosts' favoritism at 57.9%, followed by a 25.1% draw chance and 17% for Casa Pia. Advanced metrics like efficiency and set pieces remain unavailable due to missing xG data and low-confidence proxies, shifting emphasis to basic strengths. Home advantage could amplify Gil Vicente's position, while Casa Pia seeks to leverage momentum in a tightly contested mid-table battle.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Gil Vicente holds a 0.9-point power advantage and sits 6th compared to Casa Pia's 16th in the league.
  • Form: Casa Pia edges form with a score of 8.56 over Gil Vicente's 7.67.
  • Squad: No detailed squad information or recent outing data available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable in the current dataset.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with no xG available and proxy data used.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Projection split: Gil Vicente 57.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.1% (Δ+0%) | Casa Pia 17% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Gil Vicente P. da Silva Peixoto
P. da Silva Peixoto
VS
Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vitória Guimarães Rank: L
Tondela Rank: D
AVS Rank: W
Santa Clara Rank: L
Alverca Rank: D
Estrela Amadora Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Santa Clara Rank: D
Alverca Rank: L
Benfica Rank: D
Estrela Amadora Rank: L
Estoril Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gil Vicente
57.9%
Draw
25.1%
Away Casa Pia
17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.43
16.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gil Vicente
Casa Pia
Power Score
17.43
16.55
League Position
6
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gil Vicente — Opponent-weighted form score
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gil Vicente Casa Pia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gil Vicente GVFC Home
7 matches
Casa Pia CPAC Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
8
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T03:00:38+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Leite Figueira
99 D. Leite Figueira
J. Teixeira Lopes Reis Gonçalves
2 J. Teixeira Lopes Reis Gonçalves
A. Espigares Morillas
48 A. Espigares Morillas
J. Buatu Mananga
39 J. Buatu Mananga
M. Fernández Benítez
32 M. Fernández Benítez
F. Cáseres
5 F. Cáseres
L. Leite Esteves
10 L. Leite Esteves
M. De Souza Costa
77 M. De Souza Costa
S. Garcia Gonzalez
95 S. Garcia Gonzalez
A. Moreira Morales
27 A. Moreira Morales
G. Pereira De Sousa
89 G. Pereira De Sousa
P. Sequeira Mejías
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
David Sousa
43 David Sousa
A. Geraldes de Barros
18 A. Geraldes de Barros
J. Goulart Silva
4 J. Goulart Silva
P. Silva Rosas
75 P. Silva Rosas
L. Ofori
80 L. Ofori
I. Mohamed
24 I. Mohamed
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
10 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
J. Livolant
29 J. Livolant
C. Mendes Vicente
99 C. Mendes Vicente

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 27, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Capacity
12046
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
João Pedro Correia Gonçalves Morte
Gustavo Fernandes Correia
Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa
Jorge António Alves Fernandes

Expected Lineup

Referee : Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira
Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira Goalkeeper
6.89
89
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela Centre Forward
6.75
2
José Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves
José Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves Right Back
6.78
5
Facundo Agustín Cáseres
Facundo Agustín Cáseres Defensive Midfield
6.78
10
Luís André Leite Esteves
Luís André Leite Esteves Defensive Midfield
7.22
27
Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales
Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales Left Wing
6.76
32
Martín Fernández Benítez
Martín Fernández Benítez Left Back
6.47
39
Buatu
Buatu Left Back
6.79
48
Antonio Espigares Morillas
Antonio Espigares Morillas Right Back
6.74
77
Murilo de Souza Costa
Murilo de Souza Costa Right Wing
7
95
Santiago García González
Santiago García González Attacking Midfield
7.13
Referee : Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
6.65
10
Dailon Livramento
Dailon Livramento Midfielder
6.58
29
Jérémy Livolant
Jérémy Livolant Midfielder
7.04
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
6.77
75
Pedro Rosas
Pedro Rosas Midfielder
6.53
99
Clau Mendes
Clau Mendes Centre Forward
6.44
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Right Back
6.58
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Centre Back
6.5
24
Iyad Mohamed
Iyad Mohamed Central Midfield
6.57
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Left Back
6.74
80
Lawrence Ofori
Lawrence Ofori Central Midfield
6.52

CONCLUSION

Gil Vicente's superior power rating and higher league standing provide a clear structural foundation at home, yet Casa Pia's stronger recent form introduces intrigue to this Liga Portugal encounter. Without efficiency, transition, or set piece insights, the battle hinges on execution and venue momentum in Barcelos. The hosts' 0.9-point edge suggests control, but visitors could exploit any lapses. Projections heavily favor Gil Vicente, pointing to a likely victory in a match defined by foundational disparities rather than granular tactics.