FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 M05
FC Bayern München FCB
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FSV Mainz 05 host FC Bayern München at the Mewa Arena in a key Bundesliga regular season fixture of the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 10th in the table, Mainz confront league leaders Bayern, who wield a formidable 52.92 power score against the hosts' 32.41, equating to a 20.5-point superiority. Form metrics further highlight the gap, with Bayern at 37.83 versus Mainz's 28.83. Projections mirror this imbalance, favoring the visitors decisively. Although set piece details carry low confidence due to proxy usage and absent xG data, Bayern's elite status and table dominance suggest control throughout. Mainz's home crowd may inspire, but overcoming Bayern's structural edge demands flawless execution. Bayern's recent consistency positions them to extend their lead atop the standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FC Bayern München commands a 20.5-point power advantage and leads the Bundesliga at 1st place.
  • Form: Bayern's form score of 37.83 outstrips FSV Mainz 05's 28.83.
  • Squad: Bayern tops the league table in 1st, with FSV Mainz 05 in 10th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data not available in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG variable metrics unavailable for this fixture.
  • Market: FSV Mainz 05 23.2% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 20.4% (Δ-0.1%) | FC Bayern München 56.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.52
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: W
St. Pauli Rank: W
SC Freiburg Rank: W
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 4 - 25
25
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
23.18%
Draw
20.43%
Away FC Bayern München
56.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
FSV Mainz 05
+0.06%
Draw
-0.06%
FC Bayern München
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.41
52.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
Power Score
32.41
52.92
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 FC Bayern München

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
37 matches
FC Bayern München FCB Away
Match Record
8
Wins
25
4
Draws
4
25
Losses
8
Goals
43
Goals Scored
104
104
Goals Conceded
43
-61
Goal Difference
+61
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:04:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
D. Vieira da Costa
Germany
21 D. Vieira da Costa
S. Posch
Austria
4 S. Posch
D. Kohr
Germany
31 D. Kohr
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
A. Caci
France
19 A. Caci
N. Amiri
Germany
10 N. Amiri
P. Nebel
Germany
8 P. Nebel
P. Mwene
Austria
2 P. Mwene
P. Tietz
Germany
20 P. Tietz
S. Becker
Suriname
23 S. Becker
J. Urbig
Germany
40 J. Urbig
A. Davies
Canada
19 A. Davies
H. Ito
Japan
21 H. Ito
M. Kim
South Korea
3 M. Kim
J. Stanisic
Croatia
44 J. Stanisic
L. Goretzka
Germany
8 L. Goretzka
J. Kimmich
Germany
6 J. Kimmich
L. Díaz Marulanda
Colombia
14 L. Díaz Marulanda
J. Musiala
Germany
10 J. Musiala
R. Guerreiro
Portugal
22 R. Guerreiro
N. Jackson
Senegal
11 N. Jackson

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Capacity
34000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alexander Sather
Robert Edgar Wessel
Felix Prigan
Martin Petersen

Lineup

Referee : Martin Petersen

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
7.06
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
6.89
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
6.81
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
6.83
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
6.97
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
6.89
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7.37
2
Phillipp Mwene
Phillipp Mwene Attacker
6.64
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci Attacker
7.14
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.5
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
6.8
Referee : Martin Petersen

Starting XI ▼

40
Jonas Urbig
Jonas Urbig Goalkeeper
6.87
3
Min-jae Kim
Min-jae Kim Defender
7.1
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies Defender
6.83
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
6.82
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
7.05
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
7.67
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
7.09
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
6.95
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker
6.85
14
Luis Díaz
Luis Díaz Attacker
7.56
22
Raphaël Guerreiro
Raphaël Guerreiro Attacker
6.97

CONCLUSION

FC Bayern München enter as clear frontrunners, leveraging a substantial power edge, superior form, and summit position against 10th-placed FSV Mainz 05. The Mewa Arena atmosphere offers Mainz a fighting chance, yet Bayern's metrics paint a picture of dominance. Absent detailed efficiency, transition, and set piece insights, the structural chasm prevails. Bayern's consistency promises a measured approach, neutralizing Mainz threats en route to victory. This result would cement their title credentials while exposing Mainz's mid-table struggles.