Zimbru vs Noah preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadionul CPTF Thu, 23 Jul - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
ZimbruZIM
1 – 1
NoahNOAH
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 5:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Stefan Bitca - 43'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Zimbru hosted Noah in the opening leg of their two-legged encounter. The home side opened the scoring before the interval to lead 1-0 at halftime. Noah responded after the break and the sides finished level at 1-1. Zimbru finished with 40 percent possession against Noah's 60 percent. Neither side received a red card during the contest. Zimbru entered as the stronger side on paper yet could not claim the win. The draw keeps the aggregate balanced ahead of the return fixture. Both teams created opportunities but lacked the decisive edge needed to secure three points. The match unfolded with clear shifts in momentum across the two halves. Noah's second-half response proved sufficient to earn a share of the spoils on the road. The outcome sets up an intriguing second leg where either side can still advance. Overall the game remained competitive from start to finish.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zimbru recorded significant deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: The match concluded as a 1-1 draw after a 1-0 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued affecting the game.
  • Market: Zimbru 20.4% (Δ+15.6%) | Draw 25.1% (Δ-63.1%) | Noah 54.5% (Δ+47.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Koppel
K. Koppel
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Stolts
R. Stolts
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Saga
S. Saga
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Kaivoja
K. Kaivoja
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Zimbru O. Poklonskyi
O. Poklonskyi
VS
Noah S. Perković
S. Perković
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AZ Rank: 77 L
AZ Rank: 77 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zimbru
20.4%
Draw
25.11%
Away Noah
54.5%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zimbru
+15.62%
Draw
-63.12%
Noah
+47.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zimbru
Noah
Power Score
50
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zimbru — Opponent-weighted form score
Noah — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zimbru Noah

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zimbru

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Noah

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zimbru ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Noah
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.75
37.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.00
18.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zimbru -1.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Noah +1.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zimbru
Noah
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zimbru ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Noah
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zimbru Noah
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zimbru Noah
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zimbru
Noah
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zimbru
vs
Noah
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zimbru Noah
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zimbru 0.10
Noah 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zimbru Noah
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zimbru 0.01
Noah 0.02
Zimbru
Noah
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NOAH had peak pressure around 97'.
  • NOAH started the game with stronger pressure.
ZIM Pressure NOAH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NOAH reached the top pressure at 97' (57.10).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
88
88
35 (C)
35 (C)
23
23
4
4
77
77
8
8
17
17
14
14
98
98
7
7
?. Bîtca
Substitution
Moldova
73 ?. Bîtca

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadionul CPTF
Capacity
10400
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Karl Koppel
Riivo Stolts
Sander Saga
Kevin Kaivoja

Statistics

Possession
ZIM
40%
NOAH
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Shots 10
50 Dangerous attacks 104
40 Possession 60
1 Corners 10
13 Free kicks 20
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

97 Ball Safe 98
4 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
16 Throwins 30
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

95 Attacks 137

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
20 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Karl Koppel

Starting XI ▼

8
Matteo Amoroso Midfielder
77
Serafim Cojocari Midfielder
73
Stefan Bitca
Stefan Bitca Attacker
6.86
20
Vlad Raileanu
Vlad Raileanu
Midfielder82'
6.37
4
Cristian Gonța
7
Caio Dantas
14
Rayviën Rosario
17
Tudor Butucel
23
Marcello
35
Nikolay Zolotov (C)
88
Ivan Dokić
98
Victor Stînă
Referee : Karl Koppel

Starting XI ▼

99
Dani Figueira
Dani Figueira Goalkeeper
6.12
6
Eric Boakye
Eric Boakye Defender
6.26
33
David Sualehe
David Sualehe Defender
6.26
19
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan
Defender83'
6.5
39
Nathanaël Saintini
Nathanaël Saintini Defender
6.26
14
Takuto Oshima
Takuto Oshima Midfielder
6.37
17
Gustavo Sangaré
Gustavo Sangaré Midfielder
6.37
10
Gor Manvelyan
Gor Manvelyan
Midfielder83'
6.61
23
Aram Khamoyan
Aram Khamoyan Midfielder
6.37
—
Aram Khamoyan
46'
7
Hélder Ferreira
Hélder Ferreira (C) Attacker
6.46
9
Mario González
Mario González Attacker
6.46
8
Marko Lazetić
Marko Lazetić
Attacker64'
6.5
44
Marin Jakolis
Marin Jakolis Attacker
6.46
20
Valentin Costache
Valentin Costache
Midfielder64'
6.69
4
S. Mambo

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Valentin Costache
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Thiago Ceijas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
83'
Event
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan  → David Sualehe
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Gor Manvelyan → Gustavo Sangaré
10th Substitution
Event
Alexandru Betivu → Matteo Amoroso
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Vlad Raileanu → Stefan Bitca
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Eugeniu Cociuc  → Tudor Butucel
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Jonathas Abimael da Silva Conceição → Caio Dantas
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Thiago Ceijas → Victor Stina
4th Substitution
70'
64'
Event
Valentin Costache → Marin Jakolis
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Marko Lazetić → Mario González
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Brian Oddei → Aram Khamoyan
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Stone Mambo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Stefan Bitca
Field Goal / 1st Goal
43'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Valentin Ionut Costache scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Thiago Dylan Ceijas.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Update Update
Gor Manvelyan is on, and Gustavo Sangare is off.
83
Update Update
Alexandru Betivu comes on for Matteo Amoroso.
82
Update Update
Vlad Raileanu comes on for Stefan Bitca.
82
Update Update
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan comes on for David Sualehe.
78
Update Update
Eugeniu Cociuc is on, and Tudor Butucel is off.
78
Update Update
Jonathas Abimael da Silva Conceição comes on for Caio Dantas.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Thiago Dylan Ceijas is on, and Victor Stina is off.
65
Update Update
Valentin Ionut Costache comes on for Marin Jakolis.
64
Update Update
Valentin Ionut Costache comes on for Marin Jakolis.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Brian Oddei is on, and Aram Khamoyan is off.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Stefan Bytca scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Caio Dantas.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Karl Koppel.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in the first leg leaves both Zimbru and Noah with work to do in the return fixture. Zimbru will look to capitalize on home advantage once more while Noah aims to build on their second-half improvement. Possession favored the visitors yet the hosts showed resilience after conceding the equalizer. Neither side managed to dominate proceedings fully across the ninety minutes. The absence of red cards allowed both teams to maintain full complements throughout. With the aggregate level the second leg promises further tactical adjustments from both coaches. Players on each side will need to raise their individual contributions to tilt the balance. The draw provides a solid platform for Noah to defend in front of their supporters next time out. Zimbru must address their conversion rate to avoid another stalemate.