Žilina vs Hajduk Split preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Štadión Pod Dubňom Thu, 16 Jul - 6:30 PM
Europa League
Žilina Žilina
2 1
Hajduk Split HAJ
Full Time Thu, 16 Jul 6:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 3
Marko Roginic - 53'
Dario Melnjak - 90+1' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck - 45+2'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Žilina 2–1 Hajduk Split. The result saw Žilina take the points. Žilina showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation remained minimal at 4.8 percent with Žilina as the noted team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The result proved aligned with market expectations throughout.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals figures were unavailable for this fixture.
  • Event impact: As the second leg the 2-1 score produced a 2-3 aggregate finish.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the contest.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Horatiu Fesnic
Horatiu Fesnic
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
V. Avram
V. Avram
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Corb
A. Corb
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Kovacs
S. Kovacs
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Žilina P. Stano
P. Stano
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Žilina Rank: 72 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Žilina
95.18%
Draw
4.18%
Away Hajduk Split
0.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Žilina
+3.39%
Draw
-3.09%
Hajduk Split
-0.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.1
73.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Žilina
Hajduk Split
Power Score
72.1
73.85
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
190
158

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Žilina — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Žilina Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Žilina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Žilina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.60
18.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.94
21.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Žilina +0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Hajduk Split -0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Žilina
Hajduk Split
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Žilina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Žilina Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Žilina Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Žilina
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Žilina
vs
Hajduk Split
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Žilina Hajduk Split
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Žilina 0.18
Hajduk Split 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Žilina Hajduk Split
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Žilina 0.03
Hajduk Split 0.04
Žilina
Hajduk Split
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Žilina had peak pressure around 35'.
  • Žilina started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Žilina Pressure HAJ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Žilina reached the top pressure at 35' (57.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Žilina Žilina Home
3 matches
Hajduk Split HAJ Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
2
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:03:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Badžgoň
Slovakia
1 J. Badžgoň
T. Pališčák
Substitution
Slovakia
33 T. Pališčák
J. Minárik
Slovakia
17 J. Minárik
A. Narimanidze
Georgia
28 A. Narimanidze
T. Hranica
Slovakia
21 T. Hranica
X. Mveng
Substitution
Cameroon
6 X. Mveng
M. Káčer
Substitution
Slovakia
66 (C) M. Káčer
K. Bari
Slovakia
20 K. Bari
F. Kóša
Substitution
Slovakia
7 F. Kóša
M. Roginić
Croatia
95 M. Roginić
P. Iľko
Substitution
Slovakia
16 P. Iľko
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
?. Hrgović
Substitution
Croatia
32 ?. Hrgović
A. Van Hoorenbeeck
Belgium
5 A. Van Hoorenbeeck
M. Skelin
Croatia
36 M. Skelin
M. Acapandié
France
22 M. Acapandié
A. Pajaziti
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
R. Pukstas
United States
21 R. Pukstas
D. Melnjak
Croatia
17 (C) D. Melnjak
N. Skoko
Substitution
Croatia
37 N. Skoko
R. Brajković
Substitution
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
M. Šego
Substitution
Croatia
11 M. Šego

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 16, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 3
Stadium
Štadión Pod Dubňom
Capacity
11258
Attendance
7823
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Horatiu Fesnic
Valentin Avram
Alexandru Ioan Corb
Szabolcs Kovacs

Statistics

Possession
Žilina
54%
HAJ
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
7 Shots 4
49 Dangerous attacks 38
53 Possession 47
4 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
26 Throwins 11

Attacking

86 Attacks 79

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
16 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Horatiu Fesnic

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakub Badzgon
Jakub Badzgon Goalkeeper
6.12
17
Jan Minarik
Jan Minarik Defender
6.26
21
Timotej Hranica
Timotej Hranica Defender
6.26
28
Aleksandre Narimanidze
Aleksandre Narimanidze Defender
6.26
33
Tobias Paliscak
Tobias Paliscak Defender
6.26
2
Marek Okal
Marek Okal
Defender46'
6.5
6
Xavier Adang
Xavier Adang Midfielder
6.33
10
Andrei Florea
Andrei Florea
Midfielder82'
6.45
7
Frantisek Kosa
Frantisek Kosa Midfielder
6.48
23
Michal Fasko
Michal Fasko
Attacker66'
6.5
20
Krisztian Bari
Krisztian Bari Midfielder
6.37
66
Miroslav Kacer
Miroslav Kacer (C) Midfielder
6.37
11
Fabian Bzdyl
Fabian Bzdyl
Midfielder66'
6.5
16
Patrik Ilko
Patrik Ilko Attacker
6.46
24
Samuel Datko
Samuel Datko
Midfielder71'
6.5
95
Marko Roginic
Marko Roginic Attacker
6.82
Referee : Horatiu Fesnic

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
5.88
5
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Defender
6.2
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak (C) Defender
5.86
22
Mathieu Acapandié
Mathieu Acapandié Defender
6.05
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.36
7
Abdoulie Sanyang
Abdoulie Sanyang
Midfielder75'
6.37
36
Marino Skelin
Marino Skelin Defender
6.05
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.27
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
6.27
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
6.37
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder75'
6.37
37
Noa Skoko
Noa Skoko Midfielder
6.37
9
Dalisson de Almeida
Dalisson de Almeida
Midfielder64'
6.37
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Attacker
6.46
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja
Attacker84'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrei Florea
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Dario Melnjak
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
90+1'
84'
Event
Marko Livaja → Michele Sego
9th Substitution
Event
Andrei Florea → Xavier Adang
8th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Adam Guram → Roko Brajkovic
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang → Simun Hrgovic
7th Substitution
Event
Samuel Datko → Patrik Ilko
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Xavier Adang
Persistent fouling / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Fabian Bzdyl → Miroslav Kacer 
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Michal Fasko → Frantisek Kosa
4th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Dalisson de Almeida → Noa Skoko
2nd Substitution
Event
Marko Roginic
Goal awarded
54'
Event
Marko Roginic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
53'
Event
Marek Okal → Tobias Paliscak
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Goal confirmed
45+2'
Event
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Field Goal / 1st Goal
30'
Event
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
21'
Event
Simun Hrgovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Andrei Florea.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal by Alec Van Hoorenbeeck makes it 2-1.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Update Update
Marko Livaja is on, and Michele Sego is off.
82
Update Update
Andrei Florea is on, and Xavier Adang is off.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Adam Guram comes on for Roko Brajkovic.
75
Update Update
Abdoulie Sanyang comes on for Simun Hrgovic.
72
Update Update
Samuel Datko is on, and Patrik Ilko is off.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Xavier Adang receives a yellow card.
66
Update Update
On Michal Fasko, off Frantisek Kosa.
66
Update Update
Fabian Bzdyl comes on for Miroslav Kacer.
64
Update Update
Dalisson de Almeida comes on for Noa Skoko.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision confirms a goal for Marko Roginic.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Roginic scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Frantisek Kosa.
46
Update Update
Marek Okal comes on for Tobias Paliscak.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision confirms the goal by Alec Van Hoorenbeeck.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alec Van Hoorenbeeck scores, making it 1-0.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Alec Van Hoorenbeeck.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Simun Hrgovic.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Horatiu Fesnic.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Žilina 2-1 Hajduk Split. Structural assessment: Žilina exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.