Zagłębie Lubin vs Pogoń Szczecin preview

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin Fri, 15 May - 4:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
KICKOFF : Fri, 15 May - 4:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Zagłębie Lubin host Pogoń Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (Regular Season) at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Domestically, Zagłębie Lubin sit 5th in the table while Pogoń Szczecin are 12th. Power ranking favours Zagłębie Lubin by 0.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Zagłębie Lubin possesses a 0.8-point power advantage and sits 5th compared to Pogoń Szczecin's 12th in the Ekstraklasa.
  • Form: Zagłębie Lubin leads in form with a score of 18.72 against Pogoń Szczecin's 17.28.
  • Squad: Squad quality aligns with power ratings, favoring Zagłębie Lubin slightly over Pogoń Szczecin.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables not provided for either Zagłębie Lubin or Pogoń Szczecin.
  • Market: Zagłębie Lubin 35.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.9% (Δ+0%) | Pogoń Szczecin 37.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
VS
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 68 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Nieciecza Rank: 51 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 66 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 62 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 65 L
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 59 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 66 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 9 - 12
12
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zagłębie Lubin
35.43%
Draw
26.91%
Away Pogoń Szczecin
37.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.17
62.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zagłębie Lubin
Pogoń Szczecin
Power Score
63.17
62.37
League Position
5
12
Global Rank
398
425

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zagłębie Lubin Pogoń Szczecin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Home
31 matches
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Away
Match Record
10
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
10
Goals
44
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
44
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:06:38+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Burić
1 J. Burić
M. Grzybek
13 M. Grzybek
D. Michalski
4 D. Michalski
M. Nalepa
25 M. Nalepa
J. Čorluka
16 J. Čorluka
D. Dąbrowski
8 D. Dąbrowski
F. Kocaba
39 F. Kocaba
A. Radwański
18 A. Radwański
J. Kolan
26 J. Kolan
M. Reguła
44 M. Reguła
M. Kosidis
9 M. Kosidis
V. Cojocaru
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Borges da Silva
4 L. Borges da Silva
A. Szalai
41 A. Szalai
D. Lončar
22 D. Lončar
L. Wahlqvist
28 L. Wahlqvist
J. Czapliński
30 J. Czapliński
K. Acosta
3 K. Acosta
F. Ulvestad
8 F. Ulvestad
M. Agger
25 M. Agger
P. Mukairu
18 P. Mukairu
F. Čuić
10 F. Čuić

General Information

Date & Time
May 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Capacity
16068
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
7.1
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis Centre Forward
6.76
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Defensive Midfield
6.68
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Left Wing
6.79
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan Attacking Midfield
6.83
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski Defensive Midfield
7.08
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Left Back
7.15
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Right Back
6.95
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek Right Back
6.94
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Left Back
6.82
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski Right Wing
6.77

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.21
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
6.69
30
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Jacek Samuel Czapliński Midfielder
6.66
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic Attacker
6.81
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Attacker
6.76
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Central Midfield
6.99
28
Linus Wahlqvist
Linus Wahlqvist Right Back
6.59
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Central Midfield
6.86
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Left Back
6.97
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Right Back
6.6
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Left Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

This Ekstraklasa showdown pits a form-favored Zagłębie Lubin against a resilient Pogoń Szczecin, with the hosts' superior power score and higher league standing offering a marginal edge at home. Lacking granular xG insights into efficiency, transitions, or set pieces, the contest hinges on overall momentum and venue advantage. Lubin's 5th-place position contrasts Szczecin's mid-table struggles, potentially tipping the scales in a tightly projected affair. Expect a gritty battle where defensive solidity and opportunistic attacks define the outcome, rewarding the team that capitalizes on sparse opportunities.